Every time the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks take to the gridiron, shenanigans ensue. Three of their past four meetings have been decided by one score, and another tightly contested battle is expected on Sunday Night Football. The Packers enter the intraconference battle as -2.5 road chalk, which has been an unfavorable position for the playoff contenders. Over their last five games as favorites, Green Bay is just 2-3 against the spread. Conversely, the Seahawks are riding a four-game winning streak, straight up and against the spread, into tonight’s contest at Lumen Field. Both teams are locked in heated playoff races and could eventually be pitted against each other for a wild card berth, amplifying the stakes for this Week 15 primetime showdown.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Packers vs. Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet Less 4.5 Receptions
There have been some hard lessons for Mike Macdonald in his first season as a head coach. Instead of sticking to his early-season systems that weren’t working, the Seahawks coach has adapted his schemes to maximize his team’s success. The updated approach has involved less reliance on the passing game and more run-heavy playcalling. That’s impacted Zach Charbonnet’s usage on offense, limiting his appeal in the aerial assault, even with Kennetth Walker on the sidelines.
Throughout the Seahawks four-game winning streak, Macdonald has emphasized the ground game. Seattle is throwing the ball just 57.1% of the time, a significant departure from their season-long average of 62.6%. On a more absolute basis, Geno Smith is down to 31.0 pass attempts per game over his last four, compared to 38.0 through his first nine games of the season.
With fewer passes to go around, Smith has been pickier about his pass distribution. DK Metcalf remains a top threat; however, we’ve also seen the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a preferred option. The second-year wideout leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, building more confidence with each passing week. Moreover, he’s caught 24 of the last 26 passes thrown his way. In doing so, Smith-Njigba has eroded the workload available for the Seahawks running backs in the passing attack.
Outside of last week, Charbonnet has been an afterthought in the passing game. The UCLA product had more than three catches in just three games this season, averaging 2.8 receptions per game. Moreover, coming off a seven-catch performance, Charbonnet’s perceived value in the passing game is inflated. He’s been targeted more than five times just once this season, and his 83.7% catch rate this season supports that he’ll need a greater amount of targets to go north of his lofty total.
Our projections reveal an advantage in backing Charbonnet to fall short of 4.5 receptions against the Packers. With fewer passes and more reliable targets available, our analysis supports the same.
Christian Watson Less 46.5 Receiving Yards
Christian Watson has been a boom-or-bust candidate for the Packers this season. Unfortunately for Packers fans, it’s been more of the latter over the past few weeks. Watson has been unable to sustain his performance week after week, implying that he should come back down to earth after last week’s 114-yard effort.
Watson has lost his place in Jordan Love’s progressions. Through 12 games this year, he has fewer targets and receptions than he had in nine games last season. The third-year pro has been held to 39 receiving yards or fewer in four of his past seven. Those issues are compounded by decreased usage and effectiveness, hampering his outlook against the Seahawks’ elite pass defense.
Across the seven-game sample, Watson has pulled down 18 of the 33 passes thrown his way for an unflattering 54.5% catch rate. More concerningly, those metrics amount to just 2.6 receptions per game on 4.7 targets. Further, his recent surge in production is supported by three big catch-and-runs, rather than a steady diet of chunk plays. Over the last four games, 50.0% of his 330 receiving yards have come on just three catches.
Big plays such as those don’t come easily against Seattle. The Seahawks allow the 10th-fewest passing yards per game and the eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt. Predictably, the yards per pass attempt benchmark is on the decline across the Seahawks’ winning streak, falling from 6.3 to 5.7.
Watson’s recent production is rooted in unsustainable play. The Packers receiver is seeing fewer targets and has been less reliable in hauling in those throws. Playing against the Seahawks defense with the 12th man at their backs puts Watson at an even bigger deficit. We’re forecasting him falling below 46.5 receiving yards on Sunday Night Football.
