Through the annals of the NFL, there aren’t too many who can say they were sitting third in their division with a pristine record of 9-3. Alas, that’s the position of the Green Bay Packers as they enter Week 14’s tilt versus the Detroit Lions. Of course, the 11-1 Lions are perched atop the NFC North, currently tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Packers vs. Lions
David Montgomery Less 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Detroit’s dynamic backfield has been a pillar of their success. Over the past couple of seasons, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have alternated carries; however, we’ve seen Gibbs demand a heftier workload with his more efficient performances in Year 2. That’s limited Montgomery’s production and effectiveness this season, which could be more pronounced against a stout Packers’ rush defense.
Montgomery took Gibbs under his wing in 2023, but it’s the latter who is sheltering the former this season. Montgomery’s rushing attempts per game have taken a hit. The 27-year-old is averaging two fewer carries per game, dropping from 15.6 to 13.8 year-over-year. Moreover, his rushing yard total has fallen 12.5 yards per game, going from 72.5 to 60.0, with his yards per carry also dropping from 4.6 to 4.3. Those concerns are even more valid when we hone in on Montgomery’s recent production.
Over the last seven weeks, Montgomery has failed to eclipse 37 yards on four occasions. Further, his rushing attempts per game dipped slightly to
David Montgomery‘s rushing attempts per game have taken a hit. The 27-year-old is averaging two fewer carries per game, dropping from 15.6 to 13.8 year-over-year. Moreover, his rushing yard total has fallen 12.5 yards per game, going from 72.5 to 60.0, with his yards per carry also dropping from 4.6 to 4.3. Those concerns are even more valid when we hone in on Montgomery’s recent production.
Over the last seven weeks, Montgomery has failed to eclipse 37 yards on four occasions. Further, his rushing attempts per game dipped slightly to 13.0. While he’s been featured in the passing game more regularly, he still plays behind Gibbs in this regard. In total, Montgomery has fallen below 78.5 rushing+receiving yards in four of his past seven while playing less than 40.0% of the offensive snap count in six of his past nine.
Clearly, Gibbs has usurped Montgomery as the preferred rushing option for the Lions. Still, both will face a stiff test against a Green Bay defense that limits opponents to 106.6 rushing yards per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. The Packers have ratcheted up their defensive standards more recently, holding the last three teams they’ve faced to a minuscule 87.3 rushing yards per game.
Decreased usage, limited effectiveness, and a fierce Packers’ defensive front are contributing factors in Montgomery being projected to fall below 78.5 rushing+receiving yards on Thursday night.
Jordan Love Less 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Matt LaFleur doesn’t demand a lot from the Packers’ passing attack. Green Bay has a clear preference for running the ball and controlling the clock rather than airing it out. We’re expecting them to stay on script against a Lions’ defense that ranks as one of the top pass-defending teams in the league and allows the fewest passing touchdowns per game in the NFL. Consequently, Jordan Love should come in shy of 1.5 passing touchdowns at Ford Field.
Running the ball has been the priority for the Packers all season. Green Bay turns to the ground 50.7% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL; however, there’s been a steep decline in passing more recently. After averaging 35.8 passing attempts and 3.0 touchdowns per game through the first five games of the season, Love is down to 25.8 passing attempts and 1.0 touchdown per game over his last five. While he’s found the end zone twice in each of his last two, he recorded just one touchdown throw across his three prior games. Two of those contests came on the road and the other came against this same Lions’ team. That’s a bad omen for what to expect on Thursday Night Football.
We also have to take note of Detroit’s sterling defensive standing. The Lions languished as one of the worst defenses in the league for many years, but Dan Campbell has righted the ship in 2024. The NFC North leaders limit opponents to the second-lowest completion percentage, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 60.7% this season. Naturally, that correlates with elite red zone and pass-scoring metrics. Detroit gives up just 0.8 passing touchdowns per game, fewest in the NFL, and a 41.9% touchdown rating in the red zone, second-best in the league.
Jordan Love is doing less these days. We expect him to continue to operate in a diminished capacity against the Lions. Detroit has proven to be one of the top pass defenses in the league and Love has struggled to score with any regularity over the past month. We’re planting our flag in Love coming in below 1.5 passing touchdowns versus Detroit.
