Two of the most exciting football teams in the league go toe-to-toe in a crucial Week 10 Sunday Night Football tilt. The NFC-leading Detroit Lions trot out their high-powered offense against a surprisingly stout Houston Texans defense. Losers of two of their past three, the AFC South leaders have been on a bit of a slide lately. Nevertheless, Detroit’s defense has looked beatable this season, and a home matchup could be what’s needed to help the Texans get their offense in order.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Lions vs. Texans
David Montgomery Less 56.5 Rushing Yards
The Lions have had the luxury of operating their offense with two elite running backs. While they’ve struck a healthy workshare between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the latter has taken control of the backfield with his most recent performances. That’s eroding Montgomery’s ceiling, which should result in less than 56.5 rushing yards against the Texans.
Gibbs has been sensational of late. Over the last three games, the former first-round pick has totaled 369 yards from scrimmage, eclipsing the century mark in two of three contests. Predictably, improved production has yielded more carries for Gibbs out of the backfield. He’s outpaced Montgomery in rushing attempts in two of the past three weeks, with Montgomery falling below nine carries in all but one of those. That diminished workload carries him into a tough matchup against the Texans.
Houston spent this past offseason rebuilding its defense, and it’s paid off. The Texans have the third-ranked total defense, limiting opponents to an average of 167.4 passing and 114.2 rushing yards per game, both of which rank in the top 12. Coming off a Thursday night game in Week 9, the Texans had a few extra days to rest up and prepare for this tilt. We expect they’ll be ready to deliver on both sides of the football, including a solid defensive performance.
Montgomery’s workshare is on the decline. Gibbs has emerged as the preeminent running back, taking carries off Montgomery’s plate. With a stout Texans defense on tap, we’re forecasting a tough go for the elder Lions running back on Sunday Night Football. Our model shows an edge in backing Montgomery to record less than 56.5 rushing yards.
Tank Dell More 5.5 Receptions and 64.5 Receiving Yards
The injury to Stefon Diggs has sent the Texans offense reeling. C.J. Stroud had a career-worst showing in Week 9, completing just 11 of 30 pass attempts. Houston desperately needs someone to step up in his absence, and everyone is expecting Tank Dell to be that guy.
Dell accounted for most of the passing production in last week’s loss to the New York Jets. The Texans wideout hauled in six of nine targets for 126 yards, representing 54.5% of the completed passes and 66.0% of the passing yards. A repeat performance is expected against a Lions pass defense that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL.
The Lions have been completely ineffective at defending the pass. Through eight games, they’re giving up 250.8 passing yards and 24.6 completions per game, ranking fourth and fifth-worst respectively. As expected, the Lions’ secondary can’t contain top pass catchers. Over the past four weeks, six different receivers have tallied at least 66 receiving yards. Further, three of those opposing players have surpassed seven catches and 100 receiving yards.
Even before Diggs went down with a season-ending knee injury, Dell was emerging as a top receiver in the NFL. He’s commanding a 15.2% target share on the season, but he jumped to 30.0% in Houston’s first game without Diggs. That upward trajectory carries him into a favorable matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The undisputed heir apparent to Diggs, we expect Dell to record more than 5.5 receptions and 64.5 yards on Sunday Night Football.
