Revenge. We’d like to say it’s the only thing on the Detroit Lions’ minds at the end of Week 17, but the truth is, they’ve got bigger fish to fry. After the Minnesota Vikings’ triumph over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, the fate of the NFC North and first seed in the conference comes down to next week’s tilt between the Lions and Vikings. While that renders tonight’s contest against the San Francisco 49ers inconsequential, Dan Campbell has already assured everyone that Detroit’s starters will be seeking retribution for last season’s playoff exit.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Lions vs. 49ers
Jauan Jennings More 5.5 Receptions
Injuries de-railed the 49ers’ season before it even got started. Ever since the beginning of the Christian McCaffrey saga, San Francisco has been cursed by a deluge of ailments and setbacks throughout its roster. However, Jauan Jennings has mostly insulated himself from that bad mojo and is poised to take on a more prominent role against the Lions.
Brandon Aiyuk’s absence in the receivers’ room has necessitated more involvement from Jennings. In the seven games Jennings has played since Aiyuk went down, he’s commanding 8.1 targets per game while accounting for a 27.4% target share.
Moreover, there’s a progression component to Jennings’ stats suggesting that he’s due for a big swing in terms of production. The 27-year-old has hauled in just six of his last 15 targets for a sub-optimal 40.0% catch rate. That puts him over 24.0% off his career benchmark of 64.1% and even further off this year’s mark of 67.7%. Jennings is due for immediate correction, and he should see a significant boost against Detroit.
Sustained volume and improved efficiency support Jennings going north of his receiving prop on Monday Night Football. That aligns with our projections, which reveal an edge in backing him to eclipse 5.5 versus the Lions.
Isaac Guerendo Less 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Any time you make it this far down the depth chart, there will inevitably be a dip in production. Second-string running back Jordan Mason filled the void on offense, but once he went down, the offensive burden fell onto Isaac Guerendo’s shoulders. While he’s filled in admirably, Guerendo is unlikely to excel in Week 17.
San Francisco’s injury woes aren’t limited to their skilled positions. The 49ers offensive line is in shambles, which will undoubtedly have a negative impact on their rushing production against the Lions. Additionally, Guerendo is dealing with a hamstring injury that will impact his effectiveness.
Guerendo missed Week 16’s tilt versus the Miami Dolphins, but he was bottled up in his last start. The rookie running back mustered just 57 yards on 16 rushing attempts for 3.6 yards per carry. That’s the third straight game in which he’s fallen below 78 rushing yards, despite being forced into a more robust role on offense. Further, his capacity in the 49ers’ passing attack is somewhat limited. Guerendo has been targeted seven times over the three-game stretch, accounting for 65 receiving yards.
The Lions stack up incredibly well against the run. They have the fourth-ranked rushing defense, limiting opponents to 98.5 yards per game. Their proficiency is reflected across their defensive metrics, but most notably in their 4.3 yards allowed per rush attempt as the visitors.
Guerendo faces an uphill climb in trying to surpass his rushing + receiving yard total, and we project that he will come up short.
Jameson Williams More 3.5 Receptions
It may have taken longer than expected, but Jameson Williams is finally starting to scratch the potential that made him the 12th-overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. His ascent continues in what should be another strong performance against the 49ers.
Williams languished through his first two seasons in the league. The Alabama product had just 25 catches and 395 receiving yards through his first two campaigns, blowing past both of those benchmarks with this year’s effort. Already, Williams is up to 890 yards and 47 catches, benchmarks that will continue to climb over the final two weeks of the season.
The Lions’ receiver has become a staple in Jared Goff’s progressions. Williams has had at least four receptions in five of his last six outings, and his workload supports ongoing success. He’s been targeted 40 times across the six-game sample, representing 17.0% of the Lions’ pass attempts. Surely, Williams will continue to be a priority as the Lions try to lock up the top seed in the NFC.
San Francisco’s pass defense is effective at limiting yards, but they are less effective at defending passes. The 49ers allow a 64.2% opponent completion rating, inflating marginally to 65.9% over their last three. That’s the edge Williams needs as he makes his way north of 3.5 receptions on Monday Night Football.
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