Justin Fields’ tenure as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback has come to an end; at least for the time being. Earlier in the week, head coach Mike Tomlin announced that Russell Wilson would be under center for the Steelers’ Sunday Night Football battle against the New York Jets. While Tomlin has been dragged for the controversial decision, there’s no denying the Steelers need to add a new dimension to their offense. Pittsburgh has consistently come up short in the red zone, and Fields has struggled to utilize the receiving corps to their full potential. That need to get the ball moving through the air is even more pronounced as the Steelers stack up against a Jets’ defensive front that has been among the best in the league. Time will tell whether the move pays off. But even if it doesn’t yield substantive progress in terms of scoring, the quarterback change should have a positive impact on the Steelers’ passing attack in Week 7.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Jets vs. Steelers
George Pickens More 4.5 Receptions
Theoretically, Russell Wilson’s promotion should yield improved offensive production in terms of the Steelers passing game. Wilson has been a superior passer throughout his career. His 64.7% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per pass attempt outpaces Fields’ respective benchmarks of 61.2% and 6.9. Improved efficiency should have a profound impact on Pittsburgh’s ability to stretch the field, and George Pickens stands to benefit more than any other receiver.
Pickens has failed to generate any meaningful production with Fields under center. Through six games, the Steelers’ “X” receiver has seen a substantive decrease in nearly all of his underlying metrics. Specifically, his yards per game has dropped from 67.1 in 2023 to 60.5 this year despite an uptick in his receptions from 3.7 to 4.3. That’s a direct reflection of Fields’ inability to maximize Pickens’ potential by stretching the field. A natural consequence of that ineffective relationship is a drastic decrease in Pickens’ yards per reception. This year, he’s down to 14.0 yards per reception from his previous high of 18.4 last season.
That’s where Wilson can make the biggest impact, and we expect him to take full advantage of his opportunity. The nine-time Pro Bowler has been a more accurate and effective passer in finding receivers downfield, amplifying Pickens’ outlook for as long as he remains under center. Moreover, the Steelers’ don’t possess a world class receivers corps, allowing Pickens to remain the preferred option in the passing game.
There are a few different ways to approach Pickens’ totals against the Jets. However, the most substantive edge is backing the Steelers’ pass-catcher to exceed 3.5 receptions. Pickens has been targeted 15 times over the last two weeks, pulling down just six of those passes for a disastrous 40.0% catch rate. With Wilson throwing him the ball, Pickens should have a much easier time coming down with those passes, particularly on longer throws.
You wouldn’t be wrong for taking Pickens to go over his receiving yards projection, but our preferred play is backing him to haul in more than 3.5 receptions.
Braelon Allen More 20.5 Rushing Yards
As we saw last week, newly minted Jets’ head coach Jeff Ulbrich has a few tactical changes up his sleeve to improve his team’s run production. While Breece Hall stole the show on Monday Night Football last week, we’re anticipating a more robust showing from Braelon Allen against the Steelers.
Prior to last week’s performance, Allen was eating into Hall’s workload. After a tepid start in Week 1, the rookie running back totaled 135 yards on 31 carries from Week 2 to Week 5. Allen had exceeded 33 yards in three of those four outings while generating a beefy 4.4 yards per carry. Those aren’t the type of production metrics that you can keep on the bench, and a rebound performance is anticipated on Sunday Night Football.
The Steelers’ rush defense has been solid all year, but we’ve seen a decline in their metrics over their more recent schedule. Over its last three outings, Pittsburgh is giving up nearly 100 yards rushing yards per game. More concerningly, five different ball carriers have eclipsed 24 rushing yards, underscoring the Steelers’ inability to contain opponents’ run games.
Inevitably, Allen’s usage will increase in Week 7. The 20-year-old averaged 32.8 yards per game on 7.8 across the aforementioned four-game sample, both of which are substantially higher than last week’s benchmarks. The Jets’ running back is a natural progression candidate as a result, and he should be incorporated into the game-planning more frequently against the Steelers.
We’re including Allen’s rushing yard total as one of the preferred options Sunday night. forecasting him to eclipse 20.5 rushing yards at Acrisure Stadium.
