The first Monday Night Football game of the season, and it’s a doozy. The defending NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets, pitting two inter-conference foes against each other, in what could end up being a preview of Super Bowl LIX. The Niners are a perennial powerhouse, making trips to the NFC Championship Game in four of the last five seasons. While the Jets have enjoyed the same kind of success, they have moved to the top of the AFC East futures board as the odds-on favorite to win the division. With an entire offseason to prepare, the first MNF tilt of the season is a spectacle to behold.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Jets vs. 49ers
Brock Purdy More 21.5 Passing Completions
Mr. Irrelevant no longer, Brock Purdy has cemented himself among the top tier of signal-callers in the NFL. The Pro Bowl quarterback led the league in several key categories last year, setting him up for success again in 2024. That starts on Monday night as the 49ers host a rebuilt and untested Jets defense.
Since landing in the NFL, Purdy has stood out in many facets of the game. He’s gone an outstanding 17-4 as a starter, with elite, if not efficient, passing metrics. Last year, Purdy led the league in touchdown percentage, yards per passing attempt, yards per completion, and QBR, highlighting his ability to make quick reads and find open targets. In total, the Iowa State product averages 9.2 yards per pass attempt with a 68.7% completion rating, giving him a much-needed advantage over a stout New York pass defense.
The Jets may have led the league in pass defense last year, but they had a notable decline on the road. If we remove last year’s Week 9 and 17 performances (one against Daniel Jones and the Giants in a “road” game and a meaningless season finale versus the Patriots in the snow), the Jets had pedestrian numbers. The AFC East contenders gave up an average of 220.0 passing yards per game, dropping them to the bottom half of the league. Predictably, that correlates with an efficient completion percentage of 70.5%, ensuring Purdy picks up where he left off last season.
Granted, the Jets added to their defensive coffers this offseason, but they have yet to prove themselves in the regular season. They face a stiff test on the road in a hostile environment, suggesting it could take a few games to find their rhythm and timing as a unit. Combined with their ineffectiveness on the road in 2023, we’re expecting Purdy to have the time and space he needs to make reads and continue his elite play. As a result, we’re taking him to go north of 21.5 completions.
Jauan Jennings More 1.5 Receptions
There is no shortage of playmakers in the 49ers’ offense. San Francisco boasts elite players at every position, making it harder to distinguish which player will stand out on any given week. While it’s tempting to include any number of players to exceed their projections, we’re highlighting a wide receiver with an easily attainable target.
Jauan Jennings has been a solid complementary player in the Niners’ passing attack. The 6’3″ wideout had an underwhelming 2023 campaign, but we like his prospects of taking on a more prominent role this season. After posting catch rates of 63.2% and 62.5% in his first two seasons, Jennings fell off last year. His 57.1% mark dropped his career average to 61.4% but makes him an ideal progression candidate in 2024.
Of course, Jennings isn’t a top-end receiver, but he does get regular consideration in the passing game. His usage metrics typically hover around the 40.0% range, but he was targeted in 12 of 13 games last season. Further, he averaged 2.5 targets per game, putting just below his career average of 2.8. If his targets increase with his catch rate, we could see Jennings bite off more in the passing game this season.
That’s particularly true in Week 1’s tilt versus the Jets. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed will stack up against Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, so in three-receiver sets, Jennings will likely draw linebacker or nickleback coverage. He can use his speed and imposing frame to beat either of those defenders and become a feature target in the game-planning.
It’s a low target but a very achievable one for Jennings. We like the 49ers pass-catcher to surpass his 1.5 completion projection on Monday night.
Garrett Wilson More 5.5 Receptions
Throughout his two seasons in the NFL, we’ve seen Garrett Wilson accomplish some pretty noteworthy benchmarks. The Ohio State product eclipsed 1,100 receiving yards in his rookie season, following that up with another 1,042 in 2023. All of which he did while riding shotgun to some less-than-stellar quarterbacks. With Aaron Rodgers operating the offense, we should see Wilson hit another stratosphere in 2024.
What’s most impressive about those yardage totals is that Wilson reached those benchmarks with identical catch rates of 56.5% in each of his first two seasons. Those below-average totals have nothing to do with catch issues and everything to do with being over or underthrown by his quarterbacks. Again, Rodgers’ presence under center and his career 65.3% completion rating raise the bar for Wilson this year.
Wilson’s usage metrics are off the charts, amplifying expectations for 2024. The former first-round pick plays north of 90.0% of the snaps every week and is the primary target on offense. He averaged 9.9 targets per game last season, crossing the double-digit threshold on nine occasions. Not surprisingly, he crossed the five-catch plateau in all but one of those contests while averaging 7.8 receptions per game. Those marks are stepping-off points with a future Hall of Fame quarterback now throwing him the ball.
As good as Breece Hall is, Wilson is the Jets’ feature player on offense. He was touted as a breakout candidate heading into the 2024 NFL season, and we expect him to make big strides in terms of production and output. That starts on Monday night, where he should have no problem eclipsing 5.5 receptions against the 49ers.
