A few times an NFL season, schedule-makers bless us with a double-header on Monday Night Football. And Week 3 just happens to be one of those magical times of the year. Tonight’s docket features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, with the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders battling it out in the later contest. Not surprisingly, both home teams are chalky favorites, with Buffalo priced at -5.5 and the Bengals sitting at -7. Still, the fantasy market is wide open, and we’re here to reap the rewards.
This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Jaguars vs. Bills and Commanders vs. Bengals
Josh Allen More 31.5 Rushing Yards
This past offseason, the Buffalo Bills depleted their receiving corps. While they had faith in the group of pass catchers they hung on to; they also had full confidence in Josh Allen’s ability to eat up yards on the ground. As expected, we’ve seen the Bills quarterback use his legs early this season, and we’re expecting a season-best rushing performance against the Jags.
While he was relatively tame in Week 2’s decisive win over the Miami Dolphins, Allen flashed his top-end rushing potential in the season opener. In that victory, the two-time Pro Bowler ran for 39 yards on nine rushing attempts, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Although we’re dealing with a limited sample size, Allen is operating well below career norms, implying growth is anticipated in the short term. His 3.7 yards per carry on the season is almost two yards below his career average of 5.5 and more than four yards off his career-best 7.8 from 2022. As such, we’re anticipating more robust rushing performances from the Bills’ field general as he works his way back into normal range.
Allen’s upward rushing trajectory starts on Monday Night Football. The Jaguars were ineffective at limiting the Cleveland Browns last week, allowing 125 rushing yards on 29 carries. Deshaun Watson accounted for some of that damage, churning out 20 yards on five carries.
Allen is a superior rushing quarterback, and he should have no problem exposing those holes in the Jaguars’ rushing defense in Week 3. We’re expecting him to have significantly more than 31.5 rushing yards at home.
Gabe Davis More 3.5 Receptions
One of the wide receivers the Bills decided to move on from is Gabriel Davis. The former fourth-round pick was a solid secondary contributor, totaling at least 45 receptions and 746 yards in each of his last two seasons in Buffalo. Now playing in Jacksonville, Davis is in a classic revenge spot as he visits his former stomping grounds for the first time.
Of course, Davis’ ceiling is limited to wanting to get back at his old team. He’s emerged as a top pass-catching threat for the Jags, absorbing 10 targets through the first two games of the season. Davis caught all three thrown his way in Week 1’s loss to the Miami Dolphins, following that up with a sub-optimal 3-of-7 performance against the Browns. Still, Trevor Lawrence has made Davis a priority in the passing attack, and we should see an immediate improvement in his catch rate.
Moreover, the Bills secondary has looked ineffective following the departure of several noteworthy defenders. They allowed Tua Tagovailoa to complete 17-of-25 pass attempts before being forced to leave with a concussion. Likewise, Kyler Murray completed 67.7% of his throws in Week 1, with five different receivers posting catch rates of at least 75.0%.
Davis has moved into focus in the Jaguars passing game, and he’s poised for a breakout against his former club. Given Buffalo’s ineffective secondary coverage, we’re taking Davis to surpass 3.5 receptions at Highmark Stadium.
Austin Ekeler Less 22.5 Rushing Yards
The Jayden Daniels era is off to a promising start. After a tough opening-year loss, the Washington Commanders responded with a crucial 21-18 win over the New York Giants last week. We’ve gotten a taste of what to expect in terms of game-planning and personnel deployment, and unfortunately, Austin Ekeler’s ceiling looks diminished with his new squad.
Ekeler has played second fiddle to Brian Robinson Jr. in each of the first two weeks of the season. The former Chargers running back has played just 47.7% of the offensive snaps with the Commanders, serving primarily as a pass-catching option out of the backfield. More concerningly, Robinson Jr. has out-carried him by a 29-10 margin, underscoring Ekeler’s limited rushing ceiling moving forward.
A limited workload diminishes Ekeler’s outlook ahead of this inter-conference battle. Washington has a clear preference for Robinson Jr. on the ground, leaving Ekeler with no conceivable path to surpass 22.5 rushing yards on Monday Night Football.
Erick All Less 1.5 Receptions
The Cincinnati Bengals have earned a reputation as one of the top passing attacks in the game. Led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals have unleashed their passing game unmercifully. They added to their coffers this past offseason, bringing on Mike Gesicki to serve as the primary pass-catching tight end. As a result, Erick All’s foray into the NFL comes as a secondary, if not tertiary, contributor, hampering his offensive outlook against the Commanders.
Granted, All hauled in all four of his targets last week, but that appears to be the outlier in a growing sample. The rookie out of Michigan has been deployed primarily as a blocking tight end, soaking up four targets through the first two games of the season. That represents a lackluster 6.3% target share while falling substantially behind Gesicki’s mark of 20.6%.
Washington also stacks up well against tight ends. After holding Cade Otton to just one catch and five yards in the season opener, the Commanders held New York Giants’ tight ends without a catch in last week’s victory. That’s a bad omen for what to expect from a backup tight end on Monday night.
A limited workload on offense and a stout Commanders defense stifles any chance of Erick All surpassing his receptions total in Week 3. We’re expecting him to fall below 1.5 catches at home.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Week 8 NFL DFS QB Picks Breakdown: Tua Tagovailoa in a Prime Spot
Week 8 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Top Picks, Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Settings, Leverage Plays, More
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Bengals-Browns
Week 15 NFL DFS TE Breakdown: Top Picks, Values, and Sleepers on DraftKings and FanDuel
