There are just two weeks left in the regular season, and there’s still lots to be decided in the NFC standings. The Atlanta Falcons need to win both of their remaining contests if they want to assure themselves of a playoff berth. That continues with a Week 17 showdown against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football. Of course, the Commanders have yet to guarantee themselves a playoff berth either. Despite their three-game winning streak and 10-5 record, the Commanders are still feeling the external pressure from teams trying to usurp them in the standings. Desperation will be in the air, as the Commanders and Falcons try to lock up a postseason berth.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Falcons vs. Commanders
Jayden Daniels Less 222.5 Passing Yards
Washington owes a lot of its success to Jayden Daniels. The rookie quarterback has been on an expedited learning curve, staking the Commanders as one of the top offenses in the league. Despite his early-career achievements, we’re forecasting some regression for Daniels over the final weeks of the season.
As good as Daniels has looked, he’s been operating outside of normal ranges lately. The former LSU Tiger has completed more than 80% of his throws in two of his past three, contributing to a 74% completion rate over that stretch. That puts him ahead of his season-long benchmark of 69.7%, implying regression is on the horizon.
Moreover, the increase in completion percentage has precipitated a decrease in efficiency. Daniels has forsaken the long ball in favor of shorter passes, which will undoubtedly cost him yards as his completion percentage works back down toward normal range. The Commanders quarterback is down to 6.9 yards per pass attempt over his last three games, a 10% drop relative to his season-long average of 7.6. As his completion percentage regresses, we should see a more substantive decrease in his passing yards per game.
The Falcons pass defense has been trending positively over their recent sample, adding to Daniels’ potential letdown. Atlanta has held its last three opponents to a 63.2% completion rating and 6.5 yards per pass attempt, detracting from Daniels’ ceiling. Combined with the anticipated regression, we’re forecasting Daniels falling below 222.5 passing yards Sunday.
Zach Ertz Less 4.5 Receptions
Zach Ertz has taken a backseat in gameplanning recently. The Commanders tight end has deteriorating usage metrics, negatively impacting the prospect of Ertz eclipsing his receiving total against the Falcons. That disadvantage is also reflected in the FantasyLabs projections, revealing an edge in Ertz falling below 4.5 receptions on Sunday Night Football.
Ertz has been a reliable pass catcher for the past 12 years, but he’s now in the autumn of his career. The three-time Pro Bowler is now 34 years old, which is undoubtedly a contributing factor in his decreased production. Ertz has recorded more than four receptions only four times this season, and he’s taking on less responsibility as the season progresses. Over the last three weeks, he’s been targeted 10 times while hauling in six of those passes. More concerningly, he’s played just 52.8% of the snaps over that stretch.
The most concerning aspect of Ertz’s diminished capacity is his limited target share. His workload had included just 10% of the passing offense over the last three weeks, falling even further over the more recent sample. Over the Commanders last two games, Ertz’s four targets represent just a 5.7% target share.
Ertz is unlikely to thrive on Sunday Night Football. He’s slowing down in the latter stages of the campaign, posting a lesser-than target share while playing fewer snaps. That downward trajectory continues, with Ertz falling below 4.5 receptions.
Bijan Robinson Less 107.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
The Kirk Cousins era was a short yet productive time period for the Falcons. But with the four-time Pro Bowler relegated to backup duty, bettors need to be ready to adapt to the Michael Penix-led offense. Consequently, it’s time to temper expectations for what to expect from Bijan Robinson.
The Falcons’ second-year running back has been a fundamental part of Atlanta’s attack this season. Robinson is up to 1,196 rushing and 420 receiving yards, already setting a new career high in yards from scrimmage. However, his pace has slowed in recent weeks. Across his previous three contests, Robinson has fallen below 103 rushing + receiving yards on two occasions. Moreover, the Falcons running back has come up short of 94 rushing yards in five of eight.
With Penix under center, we’re not anticipating a massive surge in Robinson’s production. As we’re seeing, the rookie quarterback is an adept pocket passer, completing 66.7% of his throws in his first career start. Further, only two of those pass attempts were directed Robinson’s way, capping his receiving-yard ceiling.
Along with his hit-or-miss rushing style, Robinson faces an uphill climb in surpassing his rushing + receiving-yard total against the Commanders. Our biggest edge in the contest is backing Robinson to come up short of 107.5 total yards.
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