There aren’t too many football matchups that will command more attention than this one. The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, pitting two of the most insatiable fanbases against each other in Week 5. Already with two losses on the season, the Cowboys desperately need to escape Steel Town with a win or risk falling further back in a crowded NFC East. Likewise, Pittsburgh can’t afford any slip ups in an unforgiving AFC North that features four teams with championship aspirations. This interconference showdown is appointment viewing, even for the most casual football fan.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Cowboys vs. Steelers
Justin Fields More 26.5 Passing Attempts
An injury to Russell Wilson ahead of Week 1 propelled Justin Fields into the Steelers’ starting quarterback job, and the dual threat hasn’t looked back. Fields has guided the Steelers to a 3-1 record and an early lead in the AFC North. While he’s used his legs effectively, we’ve seen the Ohio State product take on a more robust throwing workload over the past couple of weeks. We’re expecting that pass-heavy approach to result in more than 26.5 passing attempts against the Cowboys.
Mike Tomlin eased Fields into the 2024 campaign. Wilson had previously been announced as the starter before an injury prevented him from taking the field in Week 1. That left Fields with limited time to get up to speed with the starters and precipitated a more run-heavy approach in each of the first two weeks. But there’s been an increased reliance in the passing attack over the past couple of weeks. Fields has thrown for a combined 66 pass attempts across those two outings, vastly exceeding the 43 pass attempts from his first two outings.
Naturally, some of that increase can be attributed to playing from behind, but Fields’ effectiveness supports that he’s due for another strong showing on SNF. Across his two most recent starts, the Steelers quarterback has completed 47 of 66 pass attempts for a tidy 71.2% completion percentage.
Much has been made of the Cowboys’ porous run defense, but we can’t overlook their passing defense deficiencies either. They rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed (209.5) and opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) while giving up a 65.5% completion percentage. That plays into Fields’ strength as a passer and should allow him to thrive again at Acrisure Stadium.
Tomlin will play every advantage given to him, and he’ll be looking to poke holes in the Cowboys secondary all night. Fields has proven to be a more than competent starter, and we’re betting that he surpasses 26.5 pass attempts for the third straight week.
Jake Ferguson Less 4.5 Receptions
The Dallas Cowboys face a daunting task in breaking through the Steelers defense at home. Pittsburgh held the Los Angeles Chargers to just 10 points on 168 yards in their lone home game this season. Worse, the Cowboys have struggled to generate offense on the road, averaging just 279.0 yards as the visitor. That sets Dallas up for disaster on Sunday Night Football, which should erode Jake Ferguson’s hot start to the season.
The Cowboys’ tight end has been a safety blanket for Dak Prescott this season, but he has taken on a more prominent role over the past couple of weeks. Since coming back from injury in Week 3, Ferguson has hauled in 13 of 18 targets, including all seven of the passes thrown his way in Week 4. That sets Week 5 up as a letdown spot for Ferguson, as his metrics quickly fall back toward normal range.
Ferguson has posted a 69.6% catch rate over the last two seasons, but he’s operating above that level across his most recent sample. His 7-for-7 performance last week stands out as an outlier, and even his 72.2% catch rate since Week 3 puts him ahead of his expected tally. As a result, he’s due for correction with fewer receptions anticipated in the short term.
That regression will be facilitated by a stout Steelers defense that has been effective at corralling opposing tight ends. Drew Ogletree was the only Colts tight end to come down with a catch last week, and he took it for just 15 yards. Similarly, Will Dissly, Greg Dulcich, and Kyle Pitts led their respective clubs through the first three weeks, but one finished with more than three catches or 26 yards.
Pittsburgh’s pass defense stacks up as one of the best in the league against tight ends, and Ferguson is due for correction. That combination should result in Ferguson falling below 4.5 receptions in Week 5.
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