After two agonizing days without NFL action, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants kick off Week 4 with a crucial NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football. With only 17 games and eight divisional matchups, it’s never too early to push the panic button, and both teams are perilously close to pulling the switch. The Cowboys and Giants are tied with identical 1-2 records, meaning one of these squads is heading into the fifth week of the season with just one win under their belts.
The betting market has installed Dallas as -6 road favorites, but as we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, the Cowboys might not be deserving of that distinction. Nevertheless, we’re expecting these NFC East franchises to put their best foot forward, trying to avoid the 1-3 hole early in the season.
This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Cowboys vs. Giants
Dak Prescott More 23.5 Passing Completions
The Cowboys’ most prominent shortcomings arise on the defensive side of the ball, but they also need Dak Prescott to be better in moving their offense downfield. The two-time Pro Bowler has completed less than 60% of his passes in two of his first three weeks but should face less resistance against a porous Giants secondary.
While Prescott’s 60.6% completion percentage is the worst of his career, there’s reason for optimism. Most notably, he’s a natural progression candidate over the coming weeks as he works his way back up to normal range. He is operating 6.2% below his career average and nearly 9.0% below last year’s benchmark of 69.5%. Secondly, he has a higher volume approach than any other quarterback in the league right now. Through three weeks, Prescott leads the NFL with 122 pass attempts, accounting for 68.4% of the Cowboys’ offensive plays. That affords him ample opportunity to exceed his completion total in Week 4.
Moreover, Prescott should have no problems exploiting a weak Giants defense. New York sits in the bottom half of the league in opponent completion percentage, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their throws. Those defensive concerns could be amplified on a short week as they try to defend one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL.
Prescott’s ascent is a multi-factorial progression. He’s projected to have a promising few weeks as Mike McCarthy unleashes his aerial assault and Prescott works his way back up to career averages. Further, the Giants have no answers on defense, allowing opponents to complete passes at will. As a result, we’re taking Prescott to surpass his completion total at MetLife Stadium.
CeeDee Lamb More 6.5 Receptions
We’re taking a correlated approach with our second offering, highlighting CeeDee Lamb to eclipse his receptions total against the Giants. The undisputed leader on offense, Lamb is the focal point of the Cowboys’ aerial attack. His skill set should shine under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football.
As expected, Lamb is Prescott’s preferred target week after week, but we should see more robust performances from the wideout over the coming weeks. Heading into Week 4, Lamb has a 19.7% target share and 54.2% catch rate, both of which fall below expected values. Last season, the All-Pro led the league with 135 receptions, posting a sterling 74.6% catch rate. Additionally, his 181 targets accounted for a 29.5% target share, illustrating a stark comparison relative to his usage early in 2024. Both metrics should start to tick up starting in tonight’s clash versus the Giants.
We’ve seen other top pass catchers burn New York in weeks past. Cleveland Brown’s wideout Amari Cooper had a standout performance in Week 3, hauling in seven of 12 targets for two scores and 86 yards. Likewise, the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings combined to have eight pass catchers record at least three receptions versus the Giants.
The Giants’ passing defense concerns are well documented, and the Cowboys will be prepared to exploit those deficiencies. An improved effort from Prescott bolsters Lamb’s outlook. Both players should flourish, with Lamb surpassing 6.5 receptions on Thursday night.
Devin Singletary Less 61.5 Rushing Yards
We are taking a bit of a contrarian approach with our final selection. Dallas’ rush defense has been atrocious to start the campaign, but they aren’t as bad as we saw in Week 3. Even on a short week, correcting those missteps is a top priority, and we expect them ready to defend the run against the Giants. Consequently, Devin Singletary could have a hard time exceeding his rushing yards total at home.
Although he’s been deployed frequently, Singletary has exceeded 65 rushing yards just once this season. His 95-yard effort against the Washington Commanders in Week 2 was his best game so far, but it is also not a bar that he can easily reach. Throughout his career, the former third-round pick averages 52.4 rushing yards per game and hasn’t finished north of 52.8 since his rookie campaign.
Moreover, Singletary doesn’t possess the same running skills as Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara. Those former All-Pro running backs have beaten the Cowboys defense in each of the past two weeks, but Singletary’s profile more closely resembles that of Jerome Ford. The Cleveland Browns running back was limited to 44 yards on 12 carries in Week 1, drawing a more appropriate comparison for what to expect from Singletary in Week 4.
Game-script wise, the Giants won’t have the luxury of running the ball. Installed as home underdogs, New York is expected to play from behind from the outset of the contest. As a result, they’ll be forced to rely more heavily on Daniel Jones and the passing attack to get yards in bigger chunks, diminishing Singletary’s outlook.
The Cowboys defense needs to step up and we expect them to respond appropriately on Thursday Night Football. Combined with Singletary’s sub-optimal profile, we’re expecting him to fall short of 61.5 rushing yards.
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