At the start of the season, no one could have predicted the significance of Week 11’s Thursday Night Football contest. The Washington Commanders were supposed to be in the first year of Jayden Daniels’ development and on the fringe of competing in the NFC East. Instead, they’ve surpassed everyone’s wildest expectations and are on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time since 2020. However, their aspirations are even loftier than that. Washington could put itself in the driver’s seat of the division with a win over the first-place Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. We’re expecting the Commanders to throw everything they can at the Eagles, resulting in one of the most electrifying prime time games of the season.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Commanders vs. Eagles
Jayden Daniels More 19.5 Passing Completions
We can’t give Jayden Daniels all the credit for the Commanders’ success this season, but he deserves most of the laudation. The rookie quarterback has been an offensive catalyst, transforming the Commanders into a legitimate threat in the NFC. While he’s earned a reputation for being an elite dual-threat quarterback, running the ball has taken a back seat since incurring a rib injury a few weeks ago. As a result, we’re anticipating another pass-heavy effort from Daniels that should result in more than 19.5 completions.
Back in Week 7, Daniels lasted just five offensive snaps before he was forced to leave with a rib injury. While he didn’t miss any time beyond that contest, we have seen a profound shift in the Commanders’ game tactics since. Daniels has unleashed his fury via the passing attack while taking a back seat in the ground game.
Through his first six games of the season, the second-overall selection in last year’s draft was averaging 11.0 carries and 28.0 passing attempts per game. In the three games since, he’s up to 31.3 passing attempts and down to 7.0 rushing attempts. That’s a seismic shift in terms of usage. Clearly, Washington is trying to preserve its quarterback rather than risk further injury with increased rushing. We’re expecting them to execute a similar game plan against the Eagles.
That pass-first approach could be amplified by playing from behind. Washington is priced as +3.5 underdogs, implying that Philadelphia could be playing with the lead from the outset.
Whether by necessity or choice, Daniels is primed for another pass-heavy effort in Week 11. More attempts will inevitably lead to more completions, with Daniels projected to eclipse 19.5 completions at Lincoln Financial Field.
Noah Brown More 3.5 Receptions
Seven years into his NFL career, and Noah Brown has finally worked his way into being a premier pass-catcher. Before joining the Commanders, he had never recorded more than 43 receptions or 567 yards in a season; however, he’s quickly built chemistry with Daniels and asserted himself as a top receiver on the Commanders. Brown is riding an upward trajectory into tonight’s contest, which should help him surpass his receptions total against the Eagles.
Since Washington pivoted its offensive strategy, Brown has taken on a more prominent role on offense. The 28-year-old has been targeted 19 times across the modest three-game sample, seeing no fewer than six passes in any of those outings. Brown’s increased usage is also validated by snap count metrics. After playing no more than 66.7% of snaps in any of the first seven games, the Commanders’ receiver has eclipsed 81.0% in two of his past three. Evidently, Washington needs more out of its receivers’ corps with more passes being thrown.
Increased volume is one aspect of Brown’s anticipated success, but there are a couple of other factors supporting it. Specifically, Brown has posted a career-best 65.8% catch rate this season. His previous high was 64.0%, and he has a career mark of 60.1%. Moreover, his best efforts have come on the road this season. Brown is averaging 3.8 catches as the visitor, compared to just 2.5 at home.
Terry McLaurin continues to draw extra defenders every time he’s on the field, meaning Brown will have the chance to maintain his recent surge on Thursday night. His workload and the Commanders’ pass-heavy approach support another strong performance. We’re betting Brown eclipses 3.5 catches on prime time.
Jalen Hurts More 27.5 Passing Attempts
The Eagles have had a fluctuating offensive standard this year. Through the first four games of the season, Jalen Hurts attempted no fewer than 30 passes while averaging 33.0 pass attempts per game. In the five games since, he’s down to 20.6, without surpassing 25 pass attempts in any contest. There are a few variables supporting increased passing game usage on Thursday Night Football.
First and foremost, both teams play a high-tempo game. The Eagles average the third-most plays per game (65.4), with Washington close behind at 62.4. Further, both teams have seen a slight uptick in those metrics over their recent samples. Philadelphia is up to 65.7 plays per game over its last three and averages 67.7 at home. Likewise, the Commanders have run 63.7 over the same timeframe. With more plays being run, naturally, Hurts should see an increase in pass attempts.
Secondly, Washington’s defense has one of the worst passing completion percentages in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks complete 65.9% of their throws against the Commanders, representing the 12th-highest percentage.
While they don’t allow a ton of yards, the Commanders are vulnerable versus the pass. Hurts should be unleashed against Washington and should exceed 27.5 pass attempts at home.
