It’s only Week 3, but it already feels like no one can afford any slip-ups. That’s particularly true for the Atlanta Falcons and Kansas City Chiefs, who will be locked in crucial divisional races until the end of the year. The two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs are tied with the upstart Los Angeles Chargers atop the AFC West, while Atlanta already faces a deficit against the seemingly unstoppable New Orleans Saints. Both the Falcons and Chiefs will be ready to validate their early-season hype with a decisive showing on Sunday Night Football.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Falcons vs. Chiefs
Kirk Cousins More 21.5 Passing Completions
It may have taken a game and a half, but Kirk Cousins finally showed that he’s still a top-end NFL quarterback. The four-time Pro Bowler led the Falcons on a fourth-quarterback comeback in Week 2, finding his rhythm with his top receivers on offense. We’re expecting a repeat performance against a Chiefs’ secondary that has looked beatable early in 2024.
Cousins excelled as the game went on last week. In the end, 166 of his 241 passing yards and 13 of his 20 completions came in the second half of Monday night’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles. More impressively, the Falcons’ pivot went 13-for-19 in pass attempts, for a 68.4% completion rating. That bodes well for Atlanta moving forward, also foreshadowing what to expect from Cousins now that he’s built some chemistry with the Falcons’ pass catchers.
The loss of L’Jarius Sneed has had a profoundly negative impact on the Chiefs secondary. Kansas City has given up at least 23 completions and 258 passing yards in each of their first two outings, with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals turning their quarterbacks loose. In total, the Chiefs’ opponents have attempted 77 passes, with both the Ravens and Bengals achieving some level of success. Inevitably, that trend will continue on Sunday Night Football.
Coming back from an Achilles rupture is no easy feat, but Kirk Cousins appears to be finding his footing with his new squad. We saw the Falcons unleash their passing attack last week, and a repeat performance is expected against a Chiefs secondary that has given up plays in each of the first two weeks. As a result, we’re projecting Cousins to exceed 21.5 completions Sunday night.
Carson Steele Less 1.5 Receptions and 55.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
The loss of Isiah Pacheco to a potentially season-ending fibula injury has caused a seismic shift in the Chiefs’ backfield. Carson Steele was moved to the front of the pack, leading the ground game in Week 2’s victory over the Bengals. However, we’re anticipating a more equitable workshare between Steele and Samaje Perine over the coming weeks, as the Chiefs tap into a dual-back approach. Consequently, Steele’s offensive ceiling isn’t as high as many are expecting it to be.
Andy Reid was quick to praise Steele following Pacheco’s departure in Week 2, but his effectiveness left a lot to be desired. The rookie out of UCLA toted the ball seven times against Cincinnati, mustering 24 yards. In addition, he carried the ball twice in the season opener, accumulating just three yards. Steele has just 27 yards on nine rushing attempts, equaling 3.0 yards per carry. Moreover, he hasn’t been targeted once in the passing attack, diminishing his outlook against the Falcons.
We also can’t disount Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons effectively limited a potent Eagles attack last week, limiting Philadelphia to 365 total yards on offense. Jalen Hurts did the most damage, churning out 85 rushing yards on 13 carries, but the Falcons deserve credit for corraling the Eagles’ running back tandem. In total, Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell were held to 101 rushing yards on 24 carries, or 4.2 yards per carry.
Steele doesn’t possess the same running skills as either of the backs from last week. Nor will he have the workload to surpass his rushing totals against the Falcons. The Chiefs’ rookie running back will be insulated by Perine, and without a role in the passing attack, Steele should fall below 1.5 receptions and 55.5 rushing+receiving yards.
Samaje Perine More 34.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
While we’re not expecting Steele to feature prominently on offense in Week 3, the Chiefs are committed to getting yards out of their backfield. With that, Samaje Perine could stand out as an overachiever relative to his diminutive rushing+receiving yard total.
Throughout his career, Perine has been a top-tier pass-catching back. Throughout his eight-year career, Perine has posted an 84.5% catch rate, recording no fewer than 27 catches in any of the past three years. Over that stretch, the 2017 fourth-round pick has a robust 8.2 yards per reception and 2.3 receptions per game. Of course, that’s in addition to his work on the ground. Using that same three-year sample, Perine averaged 17.9 rushing yards per game, while serving primarily as a backup running back.
Those three-year benchmarks represent the low end of what to expect from Perine moving forward. The journeyman is a more complete back than his rookie counterpart, and he has been more effective when called upon. As such, Perine is projected to be the lead back until Isiah Pacheco returns to the lineup.
Across the past few seasons, Perine has been effective in a supporting role, but he’s expected to bite off a meatier piece of the workload in Kansas City. That makes him an ideal buy-low candidate, as he could blow past his modest rushing+receiving yard totals in the first-half.
