Injuries to their top two wide receivers is the reason why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled lately. But it’s not an excuse that will help them stay afloat in the NFC playoff picture. Losers of two in a row, things don’t get any easier for the Bucs on Monday Night Football. Baker Mayfield and company are now tasked with dethroning the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Field. The betting market has taken a firm stance against Tampa Bay in this one, installing them as distant +9 underdogs against the Chiefs. Nevertheless, there are a couple of favorable entry points in the player pick’em market supporting that the Bucs have a puncher’s chance in this one.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
Rachaad White More 55.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
The emergence of rookie running back Bucky Irving has eroded some of Rachaad White’s workload. Still, White remains a driving force in the Bucs’ offense, factoring into the passing and ground games. With fewer playmakers on the field against the Chiefs, White will take on a more prominent role to help his team compete against the Chiefs.
Undoubtedly, White is on the field less for the Bucs these days. His snap count is down, and he’s averaging nearly seven fewer carries per game compared to last year’s benchmarks. However, there’s an inverse relationship between workload and effectiveness. More simply, White is doing more when he’s on the field, presumably because he’s fresher.
While taking fewer snaps, the Bucs running back has seen an increase in his yards per carry. Through the first three weeks of the season, White was averaging 71.6% of the offensive snaps but was averaging a paltry 2.1 yards per carry. In his four appearances since, he’s down to a 55.8% snap count but is up to 5.3 yards per carry. Moreover, White serves as the primary pass-catching back, adding to his workload. He’s been targeted 18 times across the four-game sample, hauling in all but two of those passes for 138 yards, or 34.5 yards per game.
Kansas City stacks up well against the run, but they consistently lose track of running backs in pass coverage. Last week, Alexander Mattison pulled down all five of the passes thrown his way for 29 yards. In doing so, he became the third running back in four weeks to record at least 29 receiving yards against the Chiefs. We’re expecting that trend to carry on past Week 9.
White is a quality running back, and he fills multiple roles with the Bucs. Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin amplify his outlook moving forward, and he’s proven to be a more effective rusher when sharing snaps with Irving. As a result, we’re betting he exceeds 55.5 rushing+receiving yards on Monday Night Football.
Baker Mayfield More 16.5 Rushing Yards
Baker Mayfield has revived his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Formerly considered a bust, Mayfield has been one of the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He’s completing a career-best 71.1% of his throws, leads the league in touchdown passes, and has the best passer rating of his career. However, his renewed effectiveness isn’t limited to just throwing the ball. Mayfield is quietly putting up the best rushing metrics of his career, a trend carrying him into tonight’s showdown versus Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Already, Mayfield has set a new career-high in rushing yards. His 169 yards through the first eight games of the season is four more than he’s had in any other season, and he’s got nine games left to set the bar even higher. We’re betting he ratchets his rushing yard total up against KC.
The Bucs quarterback has been running freely in 2024. Mayfield has three or more rush attempts in all but one game this season, averaging 3.6 carries per game. Predictably, that’s resulted in a surge in his per-game yardage, with Mayfield up to 21.1 rushing yards per game, a benchmark he has surpassed in three of his last four outings.
Game script-wise, the Chiefs are effective at pressuring the quarterback, which means that Mayfield will have to get out and move more to avoid sacks. Earlier in the year, Lamar Jackson executed that game plan flawlessly. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback burned the Chiefs for 122 rushing yards on 16 carries. Likewise, Brock Purdy used his legs to his advantage a couple of weeks ago, going for 27 yards on eight carries. Hell, even Gardner Minshew, who has the mobility of a totem pole, broke off a seven-yard run against the Chiefs last week.
Mayfield has embraced his rushing abilities this season, and that could be his saving grace against the Chiefs. With fewer pass-catchers to distribute the ball to, we should see him eclipse 16.5 rushing yards.
Xavier Worthy More 34.5 Receiving Yards
Seven games into his NFL career, and Xavier Worthy has already endeared himself to Patrick Mahomes. The rookie wideout has become Mahomes’ preferred passing target, a distinction that gives him a significant advantage against a porous Bucs’ secondary.
Without Rashee Rice to compete with, Worthy has moved to the top of the Chiefs’ receiving chart. The rookie has been targeted 26 times over the past four outings, with 16 of those coming over the last two weeks. While his 51.4% catch rate leaves something to be desired, he should have no problem making an impact at home versus Tampa Bay.
That’s because the Buccaneers rank as one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They give up 255.4 passing yards per game and a 67.2% completion rating, ranking 30th and 23rd, respectively. More concerningly, both of those benchmarks are on the rise. Opponents are up to 315.0 passing yards and a 69.3% completion rating over the Bucs’ past four contests.
Worthy is projected to become the next wide receiver to thrive versus the Buccaneers. He’s been the first target in Mahomes’ progressions, and he’ll face little resistance from an ineffective Tampa Bay defense. We wouldn’t be surprised if Worthy surpassed his receiving yard total in the first quarter. Assuredly, you can expect him to have more than 34.5.
