The NFC South is brought to the forefront to kick off Week 5, as the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Both squads enter this intra-divisional tilt with momentum. The Falcons flew past New Orleans late in Week 4, winning on the strength of a Younghoe Koo field goal with seconds left to play. Tampa Bay’s victory was slightly more decisive. The Bucs got out to a 24-0 lead over the Philadelphia Eagles and never looked back. Now, these Falcons and Bucs met at Mercedes-Benz Stadium with top spot in the NFC South on the line.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Kirk Cousins More 21.5 Passing Completions
Atlanta went out and got their man this offseason, expecting Kirk Cousins to be the x-factor that pushes its offense into championship territory. Not surprisingly, we’ve seen a robust Falcons’ passing attack through the first four games of the season. While it took him a game and a half to get acclimated, Cousins has found his rhythm of late. We’re expecting another top-end showing on TNF, projecting Cousins to exceed 21.5 passing completions.
As it stands, the Falcons pivot has two primary factors working in his favor — volume and efficiency. Falcons Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson is calling passing plays 58.1% of the time, well above last year’s average of 52.2%. More importantly, Cousins is making the most of those attempts. The four-time Pro Bowler has completed 61 of 93 throws over the past three weeks, hitting at least 20 receptions each time out for a tidy 65.6% completion percentage. Still, he remains below career average in terms of completion percentage, supporting ongoing success is anticipated.
That upward trajectory continues against a Bucs defense that has been susceptible to the pass. Tampa Bay is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their passes for an average of 23.8 completions per game. Those metrics are likely to increase as the Buccanneers embark on just their second road game of the season.
Kirk Cousins adds a passing element that the Falcons have been lacking for the past few seasons, and Zac Robinson is taking full advantage. We’re anticipating a similar game script from what we’ve seen over the last three games, with more of an emphasis on the aerial assault. Moreover, the Falcons’ quarterback is poised for a season-best performance against a Bucs team that has been beaten by worse signal-callers.
Cousins should have no problem eclipsing 21.5 completions.
Drake London More 5.5 Receptions
Of course, Cousins’ success depends on his receivers ability to haul in passes. Thankfully, he’s gotten on the same page as Drake London recently, elevating the Falcons’ offense. London’s ceiling rises with Cousins, and we expect Atlanta’s primary pass catcher to remain the top option against the Buccaneers.
After collecting just three targets in the season opener, London has been the feature wide receiver in each of the last three games. Across that modest sample, the former first-round pick has been targeted 28 times, hauling in 18 of those throws. But we’re still anticipating more growth from him after last week’s ho-hum performance.
While he was targeted 12 times versus the New Orleans Saints, London pulled in just six of those passes for a 50.0% catch rate. That puts him significantly below his season rate of 64.5%, implying that immediate growth is anticipated.
Again, the Bucs don’t possess the personnel to limit the passing attack or elite wide receivers. Back in Week 3, they allowed Courtland Sutton to nab seven of 11 pass attempts, with Amon-Ra St. Brown hauling in 11 of 19 the week prior.
Tampa Bay has set a low bar with their passing defense. London has totaled six receptions in three straight games, and he’s projected to maintain that streak on Thursday Night Football. We’re confident he ends the night with more than 5.5 catches.
Rachaad White More 57.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Some may view the emergence of Bucky Irving as a top rusher as a threat to Rachaad White’s value in the Bucs’ offense, and that’s reflected in his rushing+receiving yards total on Thursday night. But as we’ve seen, White has maintained a solid workload out of the backfield and remains a dynamic pass-catching back. As a result, this makes him an ideal candidate to surpass his rushing and receiving yards total against the Falcons.
White’s usage validates his position as the premier Buccaneers running back. He’s played no fewer than 34 snaps each week, accounting for 67.2% of the workload. Moreover, he’s been a regular contributor on the field throughout. Over that stretch, the third-year pro has totaled 41 rushing attempts and 16 targets, hitting double-digit rushing attempts on three occasions and six targets twice. His steady workload is one of the driving factors in his ability to exceed his totals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Additionally, we have White earmarked for meaningful progression over the coming weeks. Last time out, he ran for 49 yards on 10 carries, bringing his yards per rushing attempt up to just 2.8. That leaves him well short of his career mark of 3.6, suggesting more meaningful production is on the horizon.
While his rushing metrics are due for an increase, White’s passing metrics have been holding steady relative to last year. He’s averaging 3.5 receptions on 4.0 targets per game, on pace with 2023’s respective marks of 3.8 and 4.1. As a result, White is a solid bet to surpass 30 receiving yards week after week.
White is on the verge of a breakout. Anticipated progression on the ground, coupled with his top-end passing game usage, makes him a prime target for weeks to come. That starts on Thursday Night Football, with the Bucs running back projected to surpass 57.5 rushing + receiving yards.
