The Dallas Cowboys’ season is effectively over. And it has been for a while. Still, the Cowboys end the season with three matchups against playoff-contending opponents and can embrace the role of spoiler. That starts with Sunday night’s battle versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. Winners of four in a row, the Bucs control their own destiny in the NFC South. But with the Atlanta Falcons nipping at their heels, the Buccaneers’ margin for error is slim. Tampa Bay needs to be at its best against the Cowboys or they risk undoing all the hard work from the past month.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Bucky Irving Less 63.5 Rushing Yards
It’s a good problem to have, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a crowded backfield. That surplus of running backs is ideal for maximizing production and changing the looks on offense; however, it limits the ceiling of the running backs. Bucky Irving has bucked that trend lately, but he’s poised for a letdown against the Cowboys.
Irving is coming off a standout 117-yard performance last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Moreover, that was the second time in three weeks in which he’s ran for at least 117 yards. Still, his usage metrics are underwhelming, and it’s unlikely Irving replicates that success against a resilient Cowboys rush defense.
The Bucs’ rookie running back is in a timeshare with Rachaad White, with Sean Tucker also commanding his fair share of touches. Irving hasn’t played more than 54% of the snaps in any of the past eight weeks, and he is averaging just 40.9% of the offensive snaps. While he’s seen a massive surge in production, Irving is operating on an unsustainable pace. He’s averaging 6.4 yards per carry across his last four, which is a departure from his season-long mark of 5.6. Regression looms large heading into Sunday’s intraconference showdown.
Further, the Cowboys have been bolstered by the return of Micah Parsons, which has significantly improved their run defense. Dallas has held its last three opponents to an average of 83.3 rushing yards per game, a far cry from the 136.1 it’s giving up on the season. Another stout performance is expected against the Bucs.
Limited usage, anticipated regression, and a fierce Cowboys run defense are working against Irving in this one. He faces a modest rushing total in Dallas, but we still forecast Irving coming up short of that mark at AT&T Stadium.
CeeDee Lamb Less 6.5 Receptions
We all know it, but it’s worth mentioning. Wide receivers’ production depends heavily on the quarterback throwing him the ball. With Dak Prescott under center, CeeDee Lamb maintained his elite play and reputation as one of the top pass catchers in the league. However, Lamb’s production has taken a hit with Cooper Rush operating the Cowboys’ offense. Lamb’s ineffective stretch should continue against a solid Bucs’ secondary.
Lamb is at his best when he stretches the field, but Rush has been unreliable in finding his receiver down field. The Cowboys have tried to offset Lamb’s demise by running him on more short to intermediate routes, but that’s also proven to be ineffective. The All-Pro wideout has more than six catches just once over the past three games, and he’s also seen a decline in his target share. Altogether, Lamb is averaging 5.7 receptions per game over the three-game sample, while recording seven or fewer targets in two of those three outings.
He’s also faces a stiff challenge in breaking through Tampa Bay’s secondary. The Bucs have held their last three opponents to a completion percentage of 60.7%. Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers didn’t have anyone eclipse five receptions, and just two wide receivers have surpassed six catches across the Bucs’ last four contests.
Lamb’s frustration is starting to show on the sidelines, and deservingly so. He’s been unable to operate at peak efficiency and even with running shorter routes, the Cowboy’s top pass catcher isn’t seeing his usual workload. Unfortunately, that trend should persist at least one more week, with Lamb falling below 6.5 receptions on Sunday Night Football.
