Sean Payton returns to his former stomping grounds in Week 7, leading his Denver Broncos into The Big Easy for a showdown against the New Orleans Saints. Injuries have already derailed the Saints’ season, but it’s not too late to try and salvage what’s left. With Derek Carr still nursing an injury, rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler will be getting his second start under center. Hopefully, Saints head coach Dennis Allen learned from last week’s mistakes and will game-plan around taking some of the pressure off his inexperienced quarterback. Still, they have to account for some of the Broncos’ top playmakers if they hope to escape with the win and upset Payton’s homecoming.
This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Broncos vs. Saints
Javonte Williams Less 47.5 Rushing Yards
The Broncos offense has been one-dimensional early in 2024. Running back Javonte Williams has been unable to generate any traction in his fourth professional season, setting new lows in virtually every rushing category. We’re not expecting that to improve, even against a porous Saints rush defense.
There are several factors working against Williams in this inter-conference showdown. First and foremost, his usage and effectiveness are both on the decline. The Broncos running back has seen his yards per carry and yards per game decrease in every professional season. After averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 53.1 yards per game in his rookie campaign, Williams is down to 3.6 and 35.5, respectively. Naturally, that’s resulted in less involvement on offense, with his rushing attempts per game falling to 9.8 in 2024, following last year’s career-best mark of 13.6. Moreover, he’s seeing a more equitable workshare with Jaleel McLaughlin, with Williams typically playing between 50-60% of the offensive snaps. All of those metrics are working against him, as he reaches for an unattainable rushing yards total against the Saints.
We’re also anticipating an improved defensive effort from New Orleans. The Saints were burned for 51 points and 594 yards in Week 6, with 277 of those coming on the ground. That’s a substantial deviation from their normal range and we should see that number come down.
The Broncos ground game has been completely ineffective this year, and that’s resulted in a shift in usage. Consequently, Williams faces an uphill battle in getting to 47.5 rushing yards, and we expect him to come up short on Thursday Night Football.
Courtland Sutton More 3.5 Receptions
Williams’ loss has been Courtland Sutton’s gain, as Denver has turned to its aerial assault more frequently. As expected, Sutton has been the primary target in Nix’s progressions. He can follow the recent trend of high-performing wide receivers thriving against the Saints.
Unquestionably, Sutton is the first option in the Broncos passing game. Through six games, he leads the team with 47 targets, nearly tripling the next closest wide receiver (Josh Reynolds, 19). While Sutton’s early-season results haven’t lived up to his usual standard of excellence, we have the former Pro Bowler earmarked for progression.
So far this season, Sutton has posted a disappointing catch rate of 44.7%, hauling in just 21 of the 47 passes thrown his way. That puts him well off his career average of 57.2% and even further off last year’s career-best mark of 65.6%. Meaningful progression is on the horizon for Sutton, and that upward trajectory should start against a leaky Saints secondary.
Chris Godwin set the high mark in Week 6, torching New Orleans for 11 catches and 125 yards. The week prior, three Kansas City Chiefs receivers had at least four catches. That follows a similar trend that we’ve seen from the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys in recent weeks. Since Week 2, 13 different players have amassed four or more receptions, underscoring the Saints’ inability to contain opposing wide receivers.
Sutton should shine under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football. We’re betting he trounces his receptions total en route to a season-best performance.
Alvin Kamara More 105.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
If there’s one takeaway from last week’s humiliating loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s that the Saints need to ask less of Spencer Rattler. The rookie threw two interceptions while inching his completion percentage over the 50.0% line. Thankfully, New Orleans can turn to its reliable playmaker, Alvin Kamara, taking some of the burden off Rattler.
A rib injury won’t limit Kamara’s usage against the Broncos. The former second-team All-Pro running back was cleared for full participation in Thursday night’s contest, and he’ll be relied upon heavily as the Saints kick their offense into gear.
Earlier in the year, we saw just how effective Kamara still is. Through the first four weeks of the season, he was averaging 134.0 yards on 24.3 touches per game. Not surprisingly, he surpassed the century mark in all four of those outings while featuring heavily in the ground and passing games. After two sub-par performances in which he averaged just 65.0 yards per game, Kamara should start working his way back up toward his early-season averages.
As a whole, Denver’s defense has been up to the challenge this season, but its one weakness is losing track of running backs. In Week 6, J.K. Dobbins ran for 96, adding six more on two receptions. As the pass-catching back, Kimani Vidal represents a more accurate representation of what to expect from Kamara in the passing game, though. Vidal went off for 40 yards on two catches, the bulk of which came on a 38-yard touchdown catch in the first quarter.
Kamara is poised for a breakout, and we’re betting that comes against the Broncos. The Saints need to relieve the pressure on Rattler, and Kamara is the safety valve. Watch as he recaptures his early season form and surpasses 105.5 rushing+ receiving yards.
