NFL

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bills vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football

Use the Underdog Fantasy promo code LABSNEWS to play DFS with picks featuring Josh Allen and other players from Sunday NFL games.

Sunday’s sensational slate concludes with a classic AFC showdown between two perennial powerhouses. The Baltimore Ravens finally got off the schneid with last week’s nail-biting victory over the Dallas Cowboys. That was the Ravens’ first win of the season, and they’ll be looking to carry that momentum into their Week 4 matchup against the undefeated Buffalo Bills. An offseason of change hasn’t impacted the Bills whatsoever. Josh Allen continues to mow down the competition, putting up MVP-esque numbers through the first three weeks of the season. Still, he and the Bills will be tested Sunday night.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bills vs. Ravens

Josh Allen Lower 21.5 Passing Completions

Buffalo’s offense is operating as a well-oiled machine. Heading into Sunday Night Football, the Bills lead the league with a jaw-dropping 37.3 points per game. As impressive as that is, there are some contradictions in their underlying metrics. Consequently, we’re expecting a more subdued performance from Allen and the Bills at M&T Bank Stadium.

The most concerning metric impacting the Bills’ inevitable regression is their limited offensive production. While they are the NFL’s best in terms of scoring output, that isn’t supported by sustainable offensive production. Buffalo has put up a middling 329.0 yards per game, including just 247 in their lone road contest. Both of those numbers will take a hit against the Ravens, as will Allen’s player-specific totals.

As it stands, the Bills’ field general is operating well above expected levels. His 75.0% completion percentage is almost 12 points higher than his career average of 63.5%, precipitating unsustainable touchdown percentage and yards-per-pass attempt metrics. While there may be value in taking Allen to go lower than 1.5 touchdowns or 231.5 passing yards, his completions total is our focus on Sunday night.

In part, that’s because there’s also been a decrease in the Bills’ passing play percentage. Sean McDermott is calling passing plays on just 46.0% of his offensive snaps, down from last season’s benchmark of 53.5%. Predictably, that correlates with fewer completions from Allen, with the two-time Pro Bowler exceeding 18 completions just once this season.

Irrespective of game script, Allen’s totals are too lofty against Baltimore. He’s due for regression, and the Bills aren’t turning to the passing game with as much frequencies in years past. Our preferred play is taking Allen to fall beneath 21.5 completions.

Nelson Agholor More 1.5 Receptions

As usual, Lamar Jackson is using every weapon at his disposal in operating the Ravens’ offense. Already, the two-time MVP has targeted nine different pass catchers, seven of whom were involved in last week’s win. The usual suspects top the target share list, but we’re anticipating more involvement from Nelson Agholor over the coming weeks, starting Sunday against the Bills.

The journeyman wideout is off to a modest start this season. Agholor has accounted for just five targets through the first three weeks, representing a lower-than-expected 5.6% target share. He ended last year fifth on the team in targets, accounting for 9.1% of the passes thrown. Likewise, the former first-round pick has a 60.0% catch rate, which is significantly below last year’s percentage of 77.8%. Agholor should start trending back up toward those benchmarks starting in Week 4.

The Bills have had some success in limiting opponents’ passing attacks, but they haven’t truly been tested this season. Moreover, teams are still finding holes in their secondary. Last week, Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones combined to complete 26 passes, with six different receivers hauling in multiple grabs. Likewise, the Miami Dolphins had five players with two or more catches the prior week, as did the Arizona Cardinals in the season opener.

Increased involvement and efficiency position Agholor for success over the coming weeks. We’re anticipating substantive progress in tonight’s tilt versus Buffalo, with the Ravens wide receiver surpassing 1.5 receptions.

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Sunday’s sensational slate concludes with a classic AFC showdown between two perennial powerhouses. The Baltimore Ravens finally got off the schneid with last week’s nail-biting victory over the Dallas Cowboys. That was the Ravens’ first win of the season, and they’ll be looking to carry that momentum into their Week 4 matchup against the undefeated Buffalo Bills. An offseason of change hasn’t impacted the Bills whatsoever. Josh Allen continues to mow down the competition, putting up MVP-esque numbers through the first three weeks of the season. Still, he and the Bills will be tested Sunday night.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bills vs. Ravens

Josh Allen Lower 21.5 Passing Completions

Buffalo’s offense is operating as a well-oiled machine. Heading into Sunday Night Football, the Bills lead the league with a jaw-dropping 37.3 points per game. As impressive as that is, there are some contradictions in their underlying metrics. Consequently, we’re expecting a more subdued performance from Allen and the Bills at M&T Bank Stadium.

The most concerning metric impacting the Bills’ inevitable regression is their limited offensive production. While they are the NFL’s best in terms of scoring output, that isn’t supported by sustainable offensive production. Buffalo has put up a middling 329.0 yards per game, including just 247 in their lone road contest. Both of those numbers will take a hit against the Ravens, as will Allen’s player-specific totals.

As it stands, the Bills’ field general is operating well above expected levels. His 75.0% completion percentage is almost 12 points higher than his career average of 63.5%, precipitating unsustainable touchdown percentage and yards-per-pass attempt metrics. While there may be value in taking Allen to go lower than 1.5 touchdowns or 231.5 passing yards, his completions total is our focus on Sunday night.

In part, that’s because there’s also been a decrease in the Bills’ passing play percentage. Sean McDermott is calling passing plays on just 46.0% of his offensive snaps, down from last season’s benchmark of 53.5%. Predictably, that correlates with fewer completions from Allen, with the two-time Pro Bowler exceeding 18 completions just once this season.

Irrespective of game script, Allen’s totals are too lofty against Baltimore. He’s due for regression, and the Bills aren’t turning to the passing game with as much frequencies in years past. Our preferred play is taking Allen to fall beneath 21.5 completions.

Nelson Agholor More 1.5 Receptions

As usual, Lamar Jackson is using every weapon at his disposal in operating the Ravens’ offense. Already, the two-time MVP has targeted nine different pass catchers, seven of whom were involved in last week’s win. The usual suspects top the target share list, but we’re anticipating more involvement from Nelson Agholor over the coming weeks, starting Sunday against the Bills.

The journeyman wideout is off to a modest start this season. Agholor has accounted for just five targets through the first three weeks, representing a lower-than-expected 5.6% target share. He ended last year fifth on the team in targets, accounting for 9.1% of the passes thrown. Likewise, the former first-round pick has a 60.0% catch rate, which is significantly below last year’s percentage of 77.8%. Agholor should start trending back up toward those benchmarks starting in Week 4.

The Bills have had some success in limiting opponents’ passing attacks, but they haven’t truly been tested this season. Moreover, teams are still finding holes in their secondary. Last week, Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones combined to complete 26 passes, with six different receivers hauling in multiple grabs. Likewise, the Miami Dolphins had five players with two or more catches the prior week, as did the Arizona Cardinals in the season opener.

Increased involvement and efficiency position Agholor for success over the coming weeks. We’re anticipating substantive progress in tonight’s tilt versus Buffalo, with the Ravens wide receiver surpassing 1.5 receptions.

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About the Author

Born and raised in the barren ground of Canada, Grant White was nurtured by sports growing up. He spent years honing his betting craft before being joining FantasyLabs and Action Network in 2021. With a keen eye for value, Grant sets his sights on any perceived imbalance for a long-term winning edge.