Week 2 of the 2024 NFL Season kicks off on Thursday night with a marquee AFC East showdown. On the heels of come-from-behind victories, the Buffalo Bills travel to South Beach for a date with the Miami Dolphins. Both teams mounted second-half comebacks last week, but one team won’t be so lucky on Thursday Night Football. Moreover, tonight’s victor stakes themselves to an early lead in what will inevitably be a tightly contested divisional race. If the Bills’ run of four consecutive AFC East titles is going to come to an end, Miami needs to make the most of tonight’s contest.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bills vs. Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa More 22.5 Passing Completions
Although we’re still working with a limited sample set early in 2024, there are a few solid indicators supporting the Dolphins’ intention to ride Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game throughout the season. The Mike Daniels-coached team has finished in the top half of the league in passing play percentage in each of his first two years at the helm, and this season is shaping up to be no different. As a result, we’re backing Tagovailoa to go north of 22.5 passing completions.
Last week’s outing offers the blueprint of what to expect on TNF. Miami came out flat and turned to its passing game to pick up yardage in big chunks. In the end, Tagovailoa finished the season-opener with 338 passing yards on 23-of-37 passing, setting the bar for what to expect against the Bills.
Historically, Buffalo has had the Dolphins’ number in recent matchups, forcing an increased reliance on the Dolphins’ passing game. The Bills have won nine of the past 10 outings versus their divisional rivals, including both tilts last year. In those contests, Tagovailoa totaled a 67.7% completion percentage, underscoring his ability to pick apart the Bills’ secondary.
Since Daniels took over, the Dolphins’ offensive schemes have been predicated on passing the football. Miami throws the ball 59.5% of the time, ensuring Tagovailoa reaches his maximum output week after week. We saw as much last year, as the Dolphins quarterback finished the campaign with a 69.3% completion percentage while averaging 22.8 completions per game.
A similar blueprint was rolled out in Week 1 and is expected again on Thursday night. We’re betting Tagovailoa has more than 22.5 passing completions.
Jaylen Waddle More 5.5 Receptions
We’re taking a correlated approach with our second play, highlighting Jaylen Waddle as the wide receiver to target to exceed his receptions total. While Tyreek Hill remains the first wide receiver in Tagovailoa’s progressions, he faces a stiff test against the Bills’ Christian Benford. Moreover, he’ll likely draw safety help on his deeper routes, creating space underneath for Waddle to excel.
There’s a lot to like about Waddle’s usage metrics. The former sixth-overall selection typically hovers around 75.0% in terms of offensive snaps, getting only marginally out-gained by Hill. Still, Waddle remains a preferred target for Tagovailoa. He averaged 7.4 targets per game in 2023, falling short of that in last week’s tilt. Nevertheless, he hauled in all five of his looks in the victory and is poised for a more robust workload in Week 2.
We also can’t look past Taron Johnson’s ineffective coverage metrics. The Bills’ corner will likely matchup against Waddle in Week 2 and has allowed a completion percentage above 67.0% in three of the past five seasons. His PFF grade following last week’s win reveals a more concerning standard, as the former fourth-round pick checked in at a disastrous 47.6.
Hill will attract the extra defensive coverage in Week 2, allowing Waddle to exploit a winnable matchup against Johnson. The added looks and mismatch defensively should allow him to eclipse 5.5 receptions.
Josh Allen Less 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Over the past few seasons, Josh Allen has earned a reputation as one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bills’ pivot has no fewer than 111 rushing attempts in any of the last three seasons, recording 30 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season. However, he faces a stiff test on Thursday night against a Dolphins rush defense that stacks up as one of the best.
Miami finished the 2023 campaign with the seventh-ranked rush defense in the league. They allowed a paltry 99.8 rushing yards per game. Further, the Dolphins have a proven track record of limiting Allen in their head-to-head matchup. In both of last year’s games, Allen was held to a below-average 4.4 yards per carry while finding the end zone in just once. That’s a notable accomplishment for the Fins’ defense against a quarterback who rushed for 15 scores while averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
We’re also weary of Allen’s potential scoring regression moving forward. His 8.2% touchdown rate over the last three seasons is on the unsustainable end of the spectrum, and eventually, teams will adapt to the Bills’ schemes. Given the Dolphins’ track record against their divisional foe, we expect them to facilitate that anticipated downward trajectory on TNF. That’s reflected in our algorithm, which shows an edge in backing Allen to fall below 0.5 rushing touchdowns.
