There was a lot of background work that went into turning this game into The Simpsons. So much so that it prevented the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys from being flexed out of the Monday Night Football spot in Week 14. Neither team is mathematically eliminated from the postseason, but neither has a realistic shot at making a run up the standings. A deluge of one-score losses has dropped the Bengals to 4-8, putting them four wins outside of a playoff spot. Likewise, Dallas has five wins on the season and would need to leapfrog five teams to get into a postseason berth. Nevertheless, there are still some significant advantages in the FantasyLabs Sleeper Projections for this inter-conference matchup.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bengals vs. Cowboys
Rico Dowdle Less 2.5 Receptions
The Dallas Cowboys’ precarious running back situation has been one of the limiting factors in their success this season. Rico Dowdle has been the lead back since the start of the season, but Ezekiel Elliott has been deployed with some frequency, eroding Dowdle’s fantasy potential. That’s without considering Deuce Vaughn, Hunter Luepke, and Dalvin Cook, who have also gotten play out of the Cowboys’ backfield. With that, our projections reveal an edge in backing Dowdle to fall below 2.5 receptions on Monday Night Football.
Dowdle’s coming off his best rushing performance of the season. In Week 13, the fourth-year pro eclipsed the century mark for the first time this season, churning out 112 yards on 22 carries. While it was his most productive rushing performance of the season, we’ve also seen Dowdle take on a more robust workload in the running game. The Cowboys running back has totaled 41 rushing attempts over the past two weeks, which correlates with a decrease in his passing game usage.
In his four preceding games, Dowdle had accumulated just 39 rushing attempts or 9.8 carries per game. Diminished usage in the rushing attack precipitated more reliance on their passing schemes. Dowdle accumulated 20 targets over the four-game sample, recording five or more in all but one of those outings. However, with a surge in carries over the last two weeks, Dowdle has registered just three targets in each of his last three games. Ongoing limited usage in the passing attack is predicted over the coming games.
There’s also a regression component to Dowdle’s receptions total. The 26-year-old has posted a 100% catch rate in three of his past four outings, a significant jump compared to his season-long average of 80.0%. Diminished usage and anticipated regression limit Dowdle’s receiving ceiling against the Bengals. Consequently, we forecast that he’ll fall below 2.5 receptions on prime time.
Andrei Iosivas Less 20.5 Receiving Yards
Not to jinx it or anything, but the Bengals’ offensive nucleus appears to be healthy and operating at peak efficiency lately. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Mike Gesicki have been in step with Joe Burrow, and Chase Brown has emerged as the primary rusher out of the Bengals’ backfield. With everyone seemingly back to full health, some of Cincinnati’s role players could see an eroding workload before the end of the season. One player who is on a downward trajectory is tertiary receiver, Andrei Iosivas.
Iosivas has filled in admirably when the Bengals’ top receivers were on the shelf, but his ceiling is capped with Chase and Higgins in the lineup. After soaking up 17 targets through the first three games of the season, Iosivas has just 25 over the past nine games. Moreover, we’ve seen less reliance and effectiveness over his recent sample. Across his last six games, the second-year pro has recorded just nine receptions on 19 targets for an unbecoming 47.4% catch rate. Not surprisingly, that correlates with decreased production. Iosivas has fallen below 10 receiving yards in three of those six outings.
The oft-maligned Cowboys defense hasn’t been as bad as their reputation suggests, particularly in terms of passing defense. They rank in the top 10 in passing yards allowed and have been operating at capacity. Over their last four games, opponents have been held to an average of 213.8 passing yards per game, with two of those foes falling below 207 passing yards.
It remains to be seen whether Dallas can contain the Bengals’ passing attack on Monday night, but our projections support that Iosivas has a lower ceiling relative to Cincinnati’s big three. Iosivas’ big-play potential is the only potential deterrent, but with Chase and Higgins taking most of the deep routes, we expect Iosivas to fall below 20.5 receiving yards.
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