NFL

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bears vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Raiders Monday Night Football

For the last time this season, NFL bettors, fans, and enthusiasts have a Monday Night Football doubleheader to look forward to. First, the Chicago Bears invade U.S. Bank Stadium for an NFC North clash versus the Minnesota Vikings. Subsequently, the Las Vegas Raiders host the Atlanta Falcons in a non-conference matchup at Allegiant Stadium. At this point, the Bears and Raiders are playing for pride and spots on next year’s rosters; however, there’s a lot more at stake for the Falcons and Vikings. Both teams still have division titles within their grasp. But if they come up short, they’ll need as many wins as they can get in a crowded NFC wild-card race.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bears vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Raiders

Sam Darnold More 30.5 Passing Attempts

The Vikings’ season was never supposed to go this way. Minnesota drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the young quarterback was supposed to be the franchise quarterback moving forward. A knee injury derailed McCarthy’s rookie campaign, leaving Sam Darnold to hold down the fort on offense. And that’s exactly what Darnold has done. The formerly highly-touted prospect has erased his former reputation and led the Vikings to one of the best records in football. We expect another strong showing from Darnold on Monday Night Football.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has employed a balanced offense this season, but we’ve seen him turn to Darnold more frequently in the latter stages of the campaign. Since the start of November, Minnesota’s quarterback has at least 31 pass attempts in all but one of his six outings. Further, he’s averaging 32.8 pass attempts throughout that six-game sample. Minnesota’s plays per game have remained relatively consistent throughout that span. As a result, their passing play percentage has jumped from 54.5% up to 61.3%, illustrating O’Connell’s trust in Darnold to move the offense downfield.

Moreover, the Bears’ passing defense metrics have eroded over their recent sample. Across their last three games, opponents are up to 286.7 passing yards per game with a robust 67.4% completion percentage. Expect the Vikings to chip away at that weakness on Monday night.

Darnold has cemented his place as a team leader on offense, and he’s earned more trust from his head coach along the way. We’re expecting another solid performance from the 27-year-old against the Bears, with Darnold surpassing 30.5 pass attempts.

Cole Kmet Less 2.5 Receptions

Last season, Cole Kmet became Justin Fields’ safety blanket in the passing attack, particularly in the red zone. But Caleb Williams has taken a different approach. The Bears’ rookie quarterback has tapped into his talented wide receiver corps instead of consistently looking for his tight end. That personnel shift has eroded Kmet’s stats and diminished his outlook against the Vikings.

Kmet’s year-over-year comparisons reveal the downward trajectory. His yards per game have dropped from 42.3 to 34.5, with his receptions per game falling from 4.3 to 3.2. Additionally, those benchmarks have taken a more significant hit over his recent schedule. Kmet has fallen below two receptions in four of his last seven games, a stretch that includes only 21 targets. That’s indicative of his target issues on the whole, as Kmet is commanding just 11.5% of looks from Williams this season.

At times, tight ends have gotten lost in Minnesota’s pass coverage, including the last time Kmet took on the Vikings. Still, they’re coming off one of their best defensive performances of the season, holding Kyle Pitts to one 14-yard reception on six targets last week. We’re anticipating another solid showing at home against the Bears.

Kmet has become a tertiary option in the Bears’ passing attack, and we don’t expect that to change in Week 15. That aligns with the FantasyLabs Sleeper projections, which reveal a modest edge in backing him to fall below 2.5 receptions.

Kirk Cousins Less 241.5 Passing Yards

The Falcons’ late-season struggles fall directly on Kirk Cousins’ shoulders. The veteran quarterback has struggled of late, costing his team some much-needed wins in the standings. Cousins is in for another rough outing against an underappreciated Raiders’ pass defense.

It’s been five games since Cousins last threw a touchdown pass. At face value, that’s an unflattering look, but the issues look worse as we peel back the layers of his performances. Over that stretch, the Falcons’ pivot is completing just 62.4% of his passes with eight interceptions. Moreover, that decreased efficiency has come despite a substantial increase in pass attempts. Cousins has attempted 37 or more throws in three of those four outings, which hasn’t yielded the offensive productivity the Falcons need.

At this point, Atlanta needs to take the ball out of Cousins’ hands. The figurative interpretation is that the Falcons need to run the ball more so that Cousins isn’t a liability on offense. But the more literal interpretation is that the Falcons should consider inserting Michael Penix into the lineup if this season gets away from them.

The Raiders’ pass defense has stepped up over the past few weeks. Since Week 12, they’ve held opponents to a tidy 59.0% completion percentage. Additionally, they limit opponents to an average of just 215.8 passing yards per game at Allegiant Stadium.

Decreased reliance on the passing game should result in fewer yards for Cousins, particularly against the Raiders’ pass defense. In the end, our analysis and projections support that Cousins should fall shy of 241.5 passing yards in Week 15.

Michael Mayer Less 2.5 Receptions

In 2023, the Raiders drafted Michael Mayer as their tight end of the future. Then Brock Bowers fell into their laps at the 2024 NFL Draft. It didn’t take long for Bowers to usurp Mayer on the depth chart, and now the latter has become an afterthought in the Raiders’ offensive schemes.

Granted, Mayer is coming off a seven-reception performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; however, that effort is a substantial departure from his usual activity. The second-year pro has recorded two receptions or fewer in every other contest this season and hadn’t been targeted more than three times prior to Week 14. What’s inherent in those underwhelming metrics is a 4.7% target share and suboptimal 65.2% catch rate.

Altogether, Mayer has just 15 receptions in seven games, with seven of those coming in his most recent outing. Naturally, we’re anticipating a more subdued performance from the Raiders’ backup tight end versus the Falcons. Our biggest edge of the evening is backing Mayer to record fewer than 2.5 receptions.

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For the last time this season, NFL bettors, fans, and enthusiasts have a Monday Night Football doubleheader to look forward to. First, the Chicago Bears invade U.S. Bank Stadium for an NFC North clash versus the Minnesota Vikings. Subsequently, the Las Vegas Raiders host the Atlanta Falcons in a non-conference matchup at Allegiant Stadium. At this point, the Bears and Raiders are playing for pride and spots on next year’s rosters; however, there’s a lot more at stake for the Falcons and Vikings. Both teams still have division titles within their grasp. But if they come up short, they’ll need as many wins as they can get in a crowded NFC wild-card race.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bears vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Raiders

Sam Darnold More 30.5 Passing Attempts

The Vikings’ season was never supposed to go this way. Minnesota drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the young quarterback was supposed to be the franchise quarterback moving forward. A knee injury derailed McCarthy’s rookie campaign, leaving Sam Darnold to hold down the fort on offense. And that’s exactly what Darnold has done. The formerly highly-touted prospect has erased his former reputation and led the Vikings to one of the best records in football. We expect another strong showing from Darnold on Monday Night Football.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has employed a balanced offense this season, but we’ve seen him turn to Darnold more frequently in the latter stages of the campaign. Since the start of November, Minnesota’s quarterback has at least 31 pass attempts in all but one of his six outings. Further, he’s averaging 32.8 pass attempts throughout that six-game sample. Minnesota’s plays per game have remained relatively consistent throughout that span. As a result, their passing play percentage has jumped from 54.5% up to 61.3%, illustrating O’Connell’s trust in Darnold to move the offense downfield.

Moreover, the Bears’ passing defense metrics have eroded over their recent sample. Across their last three games, opponents are up to 286.7 passing yards per game with a robust 67.4% completion percentage. Expect the Vikings to chip away at that weakness on Monday night.

Darnold has cemented his place as a team leader on offense, and he’s earned more trust from his head coach along the way. We’re expecting another solid performance from the 27-year-old against the Bears, with Darnold surpassing 30.5 pass attempts.

Cole Kmet Less 2.5 Receptions

Last season, Cole Kmet became Justin Fields’ safety blanket in the passing attack, particularly in the red zone. But Caleb Williams has taken a different approach. The Bears’ rookie quarterback has tapped into his talented wide receiver corps instead of consistently looking for his tight end. That personnel shift has eroded Kmet’s stats and diminished his outlook against the Vikings.

Kmet’s year-over-year comparisons reveal the downward trajectory. His yards per game have dropped from 42.3 to 34.5, with his receptions per game falling from 4.3 to 3.2. Additionally, those benchmarks have taken a more significant hit over his recent schedule. Kmet has fallen below two receptions in four of his last seven games, a stretch that includes only 21 targets. That’s indicative of his target issues on the whole, as Kmet is commanding just 11.5% of looks from Williams this season.

At times, tight ends have gotten lost in Minnesota’s pass coverage, including the last time Kmet took on the Vikings. Still, they’re coming off one of their best defensive performances of the season, holding Kyle Pitts to one 14-yard reception on six targets last week. We’re anticipating another solid showing at home against the Bears.

Kmet has become a tertiary option in the Bears’ passing attack, and we don’t expect that to change in Week 15. That aligns with the FantasyLabs Sleeper projections, which reveal a modest edge in backing him to fall below 2.5 receptions.

Kirk Cousins Less 241.5 Passing Yards

The Falcons’ late-season struggles fall directly on Kirk Cousins’ shoulders. The veteran quarterback has struggled of late, costing his team some much-needed wins in the standings. Cousins is in for another rough outing against an underappreciated Raiders’ pass defense.

It’s been five games since Cousins last threw a touchdown pass. At face value, that’s an unflattering look, but the issues look worse as we peel back the layers of his performances. Over that stretch, the Falcons’ pivot is completing just 62.4% of his passes with eight interceptions. Moreover, that decreased efficiency has come despite a substantial increase in pass attempts. Cousins has attempted 37 or more throws in three of those four outings, which hasn’t yielded the offensive productivity the Falcons need.

At this point, Atlanta needs to take the ball out of Cousins’ hands. The figurative interpretation is that the Falcons need to run the ball more so that Cousins isn’t a liability on offense. But the more literal interpretation is that the Falcons should consider inserting Michael Penix into the lineup if this season gets away from them.

The Raiders’ pass defense has stepped up over the past few weeks. Since Week 12, they’ve held opponents to a tidy 59.0% completion percentage. Additionally, they limit opponents to an average of just 215.8 passing yards per game at Allegiant Stadium.

Decreased reliance on the passing game should result in fewer yards for Cousins, particularly against the Raiders’ pass defense. In the end, our analysis and projections support that Cousins should fall shy of 241.5 passing yards in Week 15.

Michael Mayer Less 2.5 Receptions

In 2023, the Raiders drafted Michael Mayer as their tight end of the future. Then Brock Bowers fell into their laps at the 2024 NFL Draft. It didn’t take long for Bowers to usurp Mayer on the depth chart, and now the latter has become an afterthought in the Raiders’ offensive schemes.

Granted, Mayer is coming off a seven-reception performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; however, that effort is a substantial departure from his usual activity. The second-year pro has recorded two receptions or fewer in every other contest this season and hadn’t been targeted more than three times prior to Week 14. What’s inherent in those underwhelming metrics is a 4.7% target share and suboptimal 65.2% catch rate.

Altogether, Mayer has just 15 receptions in seven games, with seven of those coming in his most recent outing. Naturally, we’re anticipating a more subdued performance from the Raiders’ backup tight end versus the Falcons. Our biggest edge of the evening is backing Mayer to record fewer than 2.5 receptions.

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About the Author

Born and raised in the barren ground of Canada, Grant White was nurtured by sports growing up. He spent years honing his betting craft before being joining FantasyLabs and Action Network in 2021. With a keen eye for value, Grant sets his sights on any perceived imbalance for a long-term winning edge.