Things can’t get much worse for the San Francisco 49ers. Fresh off their third loss in five weeks, the Niners make the cross-country trek for a Sunday night showdown against the Buffalo Bills. Loyal San Francisco defenders will point to the myriad of injuries that have been a contributing factor in the 49ers’ downfall. But at the end of the day, excuses won’t help the 49ers make the playoffs, and they still face a deficit in the NFC West. Those concerns could be amplified once the high-octane Bills are finished with them. Led by Josh Allen, Buffalo has one of the most potent offenses in the league, averaging 29.1 points per game. Insulated at home and under the bright primetime lights of Sunday Night Football, we should see the best the Bills have to offer.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for 49ers vs. Bills
Josh Allen More 30.5 Pass Attempts and 19.5 Completions
Buffalo wouldn’t be perched atop the AFC East without its MVP candidate quarterback. Josh Allen has been the offensive catalyst that powers the Bills offense, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to shine against a faltering Niners defense.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott has asked more from Allen in recent weeks, and the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback has responded with some of his best efforts of the season. Allen has attempted more than 33 passing attempts in five straight games, averaging 36.6 per game. More importantly, he’s completed 65% of those throws for an average of 23.8 completions per game. Further, Allen hasn’t fallen below 21 completions in any of those five outings.
All signs point to the Bills’ sustained reliance on the passing game Sunday night. Josh Allen has been moving the ball efficiently of late, and the Bills will be looking to exploit a Niners pass defense that has allowed a 66.7% completion percentage over their last three games. Consequently, we’re predicting the Bills’ quarterback surpasses 19.5 completions and 31.5 pass attempts in Week 13.
Khalil Shakir Over 55.5 Receiving Yards
We are taking a correlated approach with our third pick, highlighting Khalil Shakir as a solid handcuff to Allen’s anticipated success. The Bills wideout has emerged as the top pass-catching threat in Buffalo’s offense, and he’s poised to continue his upward trajectory against San Fran.
After gutting their receiver room this past offseason, it took Allen a few weeks to develop chemistry with his new receivers. However, Shakir has become Allen’s safety blanket in recent weeks. The third-year pro had just 21 targets through his first five games of the season. In the five games since, Shakir has more than doubled his workload. He’s up to 45 targets across the more recent sample, representing a 24.6% target share.
Even before his increased workload, Shakir was a reliable deep threat for the Bills, which has been his calling card since landing in the NFL. Through his first two seasons in the league, Shakir was averaging 15.8 yards per reception. While that benchmark has taken a hit in 2024, he’s still gone for at least 57 yards in six of his past eight games. Moreover, Shakir has had game-long receptions of at least 22 yards in three of his past four, eclipsing 30 yards on two occasions.
Shakir has the workload and profile to eclipse his very reachable receiving yards total on Sunday Night Football. The Allen-Shakir tandem will be ready to showcase their worth, and we expect both players to deliver.
Christian McCaffrey More 14.5 Rushing Attempts
The handling of the Christian McCaffrey injury to start the season will go down as one of the most infamous incidents in fantasy football. Moreover, McCaffrey became the scapegoat for the Niners’ early-season struggles. San Francisco failed to live up to its reputation from years past, and McCaffrey’s absence was always the first talking point. Now three games into his 2024 season, the 49ers need McCaffrey more than ever.
While Brock Purdy is expected back in the lineup for Sunday Night Football, we’re not expecting him to be at his best. That’s going to increase San Francisco’s dependence on McCaffrey to help the team move the ball downfield. More fundamentally, the Niners offensive scheme relies on an effective ground game to alleviate the pressure on their passing attack.
There was no wading into the waters for McCaffrey upon his return in Week 9. The two-time All-Pro played 56 of the 64 offensive snaps against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, accounting for 87.5% of the plays. Subsequently, he jumped to 93.7% of the plays in Week 10 before being removed early in last week’s blowout. Across that sample, McCaffrey has totaled 43 carries, with 32 of those coming in his first two appearances.
San Francisco turns to the rushing attack 46.7% of the time, the 10th-most in the NFL. Still, that’s a slight decline relative to last year’s benchmark of 47.9%. Keeping the Bills offense off the field will be half the battle Sunday night, and McCaffrey will play a vital role in accomplishing that goal. We’re forecasting a season-best performance from the 49ers running back, with McCaffrey carrying the ball more than 14.5 times.
