This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have five game on the docket, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
All data pulled from HockeyViz.com, Corsica.Hockey, or NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.
Sidney Crosby ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
The Penguins utilized an interesting strategy against Tampa on Saturday night to great success, blanketing Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov with their third line and allowing the top lines to receive much less taxing matchups. Evgeni Malkin will be out again tonight, which adds another layer of intrigue, but given how effective the strategy was against Tampa, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Penguins employ it again versus the explosive trio of Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, and Jakub Voracek. The most obvious beneficiary of this is Crosby, who instead of facing one of the top five even-strength lines in the league, should be able to feast on the Flyers’ middle lines. Even in the scenario that Sullivan opts for a more standard approach and Crosby gets a tougher even strength assignment, Pittsburgh holds a massive special-teams edge, with the sixth-ranked power play in the NHL (by goals scored per 60) going up against the league’s worst penalty-kill team in the Flyers. On a slate that lacks depth at the center position, getting the top rated player by both my personal Labs Model and CSURAM88’s Model in a nice home matchup should be a no-brainer. Stack Crosby with his linemates Patric Hornqvist and Conor Sheary for 5v5 correlation or Phil Kessel and Jake Guentzel for a piece of the power play.
Nick Bjugstad ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel)
Evgenii Dadonov left Saturday’s game with a shoulder injury that seems poised to keep him out of the lineup for quite some time. For the last few shifts of the game, Bjugstad skated alongside Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. He projects to replace Dadonov on the first power play. Regardless of matchup, any player with Bjugstad’s strong shot production — 16 iCorsi/60 on the season, which is very good, and 34 shots in his past 10 games in a rather limited role — is a must play when thrust onto such a talented top line. Bjugstad should be an under-owned value play until his new role gets more hammered out.
Update: We now have confirmation Denis Malgin will replace Dadonov on the wing, which is a knock to Bjugstad’s projection. However, he is still worth a play given a strong shot rate and potential first power play time.
Seth Jones ($5,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Columbus has had a problematic power play thus far, with the lowest shots/60 and goals/60 in the NHL. This really limits the upside of what is objectively one of the best 5v5 squads in the NHL. But thanks to an outstanding floor, Jones meeting value on a regular basis with the noted 5v4 struggles. His role on the first power play and high minute projection make him a nightly DFS stud on defense. Labs has Columbus as the second-highest rated team despite a low Vegas total, so you should be able to get Jones at a discounted ownership.
Cody Franson ($3,400 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel)
Franson seems to be back in Coach Q’s good graces, playing a regular shift with Duncan Keith at 5v5 and on the first power play with Patrick Kane. Kane is a wonderful play on Monday, but it is tough to fit him without sacrificing elsewhere. Gaining exposure to him through someone like Franson, who has outstanding shot numbers for a blue-liner, is a great way to a piece of a possible Patty Kane explosion against a terribly banged up Anaheim team. A simple Trend on Labs helps to illustrate the value of someone like Franson, as there have been 357 defensemen who have met the following criteria:
- First power play
- First pair
- Below $4,000 on DraftKings
- Shots + Blocks per game > 2.5 (Franson is at 2.53)
These players have outscored their projection by .37 on aggregate, meeting value nearly 50% of the time, a significant edge for a pure punt play.
Mikael Granlund ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Granlund’s average DraftKings salary for the second half of last season sat at $6,159, and he opened this season at $5,900. His $5,200 salary tonight comes with a 99 Bargain Rating and almost looks like a mistake with the way he’s been playing, scoring nearly a point per game and averaging well north of three fantasy points per game on the season. He’s been incredibly productive (as have his most common linemates in Mikko Koivu, Nino Niederreiter, Jared Spurgeon, and Ryan Suter), yet DraftKings has underpriced all of them. I actually don’t love the matchup with Winnipeg given their outstanding defensive play to this point in the season, but Minnesota rides their top guns as heavily as any team in the league and these prices are too good to pass up. Count on every Minnesota player being under-owned (especially on DraftKings) and consider stacking them in tournaments.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
