I don’t see any significant a.m./p.m. wave advantages this week for showdown. Scoring will be very interesting this week as Thursday and Friday are looking like perfect conditions for scoring while we may see a temperature drop with winds up to 20 mph on both Saturday and Sunday. It should make for an exciting week of golf.
Here are the top 10 golfers in Strokes Gained: Total in round 1 (past 24 rounds):
- Harris English ($9,400)
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,000)
- Louis Oosthuizen ($8,700)
- Cameron Tringale ($7,200)
- Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600)
- Nick Taylor ($6,600)
- Harold Varner III ($7,400)
- Patrick Rodgers ($7,100)
- Zach Johnson ($7,800)
- Mark Hubbard ($6,700)
While first round scoring average doesn’t tell the whole story, it does show which golfers typically get off to a hot start. Week after week on TOUR we see cheap golfers get to the top of the leaderboard early in the week only to falter on the weekend.
In terms of a Round 1 Showdown, their finishing position on Sunday doesn’t matter. Therefore, we can take more risks on golfers we don’t necessarily trust to finish the tournament strong.
Top Tier Targets
Collin Morikawa ($9,700): Morikawa rates out first in my statistical model this week and for good reason. Morikawa has played his best golf on bentgrass putting surfaces and is one of the best iron players in the world. On what I believe is a second-shot golf course, iron play will be key. Morikawa is also underpriced this week and I can’t see any reason why he should only be the fourth highest priced golfer this week.
Harris English ($9,400): English is a perfect fit for this golf course. He finds the fairway and can get scorching hot with the putter, especially on bentgrass. I expect English to be in contention this week and Round 1 is usually when he plays some of his best golf.
Rickie Fowler ($8,600): I love Fowler this week. He fits the mold of previous winners at TPC Summerlin and has the ability to putt with anyone in the field when he is at his best. We saw him start to play a lot better tee to green at Winged Foot so I think it is a good time to take a chance on Fowler.
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Rickie Fowler of the United States.
Mid Tier Targets
Zach Johnson ($7,800): Johnson is fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach in his past 24 rounds. At a tournament where short hitters have historically fared very well, I think ZJ is a great play this week. He also ranks ninth in Strokes Gained: Total for Round 1 scoring, which is all the more reason to fire him up for a Round 1 showdown.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,000): Last week in this column I said Cameron Davis would be popular but “good chalk” this week, which means you play him despite his popularity. I feel the same way this week about Niemann. “The wonder kid” is one of the best ball strikers on TOUR and should give himself plenty of birdie opportunities this week.
Matt Kuchar ($7,500): Although he hasn’t been playing great lately, Matt Kuchar is still underpriced this week. When we saw him last (Winged Foot), he missed the cut but he also gained 4.6 strokes on approach. On a second shot golf course approach should play a factor this week. Kuch also has some great history playing desert golf in his career and I am expecting a bounce back.
Low End Targets
Beau Hossler ($6,700): Hossler is a west coast kid and seems to play his best golf in the area. Despite being in horrendous form last season he still managed to finish 29th last year at the Shriners and finished 23rd the year prior. At a low price and what I expect to be low ownership, I think Beau will be a solid low end play this week.
CT Pan ($6,500): Pan finished 12th last week at the Sanderson Farms and didn’t receive any price bump this week. He fits the mold of being a shorter hitter who can get hot with his approach play. Going this low in what I believe is a solid play on Pan this week, will open up some flexibility to play more higher priced golfers at the top.
Tyler McCumber ($6,800): McCumber has been excellent in his past two starts finishing second at Corales and sixth at Sanderson Farms. He gained 9.3 strokes tee to green last week and had a great finish despite only gaining 0.5 strokes putting. If McCumber can ride his current form into TPC Summerlin he should be able to put together a good first round this week.
Pictured above: Collin Morikawa of the United States
Photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images
