Let’s get right into it this week as DraftKings has continued their strong main contests with six figures to first thus far into the fall swing. The $15 Flop Shot is once again the main GPP with $100,000 to first out of a $350,000 prize pool with 27,450 entries. The focus of this article will be around this contest, and our goal, as always, is to shoot for the win.
Across our platforms, you can find many review articles that will tailor towards both DFS and betting, with a good place to start being Matt Vincenzi’s course fit article and matching it up for GPPs. Landon Silinsky also covers cash games here on FantasyLabs to lay out a good safe core, which can be used in a number of ways.
Lastly, I covered small-field GPPs yesterday, and in getting a more well-rounded ownership projection today, there may be some crossover this week.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
Now for the plays.
Top Tier
Sam Burns ($10,900)
In DFS, it seems to have become standard to fade the player who won the prior week unless they are truly elites. Sam Burns, for me, could be trending to be one of those exceptions. It’s certainly a tiny sample, but following the first win of his career at the Valspar, he teed it up again two weeks later and played from the final group on Sunday before finishing second.
This week, he is set to play immediately following his win, and he appears to be the lowest rostered player of the top tier. There is no reason he can’t be a good fit this week as we are looking for great ball-strikers who can get hot putting, both of which fit the mold for Burns.
While many think of him as “Bermuda Burns,” he has also shown good results on bentgrass like he will see this week. I, for one, wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix again. He makes for a great contrarian way to start your lineups this week and opens the door for some other chalk options.
Abraham Ancer ($10,400)
I am going with the copy and paste method here from my small-field GPP article, as I think you can still go to Ancer even at the projected 20% ownership. He’s my top play this week, and I can’t ignore that just on ownership alone.
My only hesitation is around his price as he hasn’t proven to be a winner in his career, which is what we are looking for in the five-figure range, but he did finally capture that first win at the WGC St. Jude this summer. I am hopeful that his first win may propel him forward for more, and this would be a perfect track to see it happen.
Ancer is a player who peppers the fairways and greens, which is necessary due to his lack of distance. However, it is a recipe for success at TPC Summerlin. He’s a birdie maker that can contend in a 20+ under birdie fest, and that is where this event has fallen in most years.
We have seen this play out for him with two top-four finishes in his last three trips. I am hopeful that the missed cuts sandwiched around those top finishes may keep some others from going to him to start their lineups this week.
Mid Tier
Adam Scott ($8,400)
Another top play for me, which gets some agreeance from our Data-Driven Player Model, is Adam Scott. He is priced nicely before Joaquin Niemann, who will be undoubtedly popular and appears to have Scott being overlooked with just around 5% ownership currently projected.
Last year, the Australian had a sub-par season and will be looking to start things on the right track as he begins the new season in Las Vegas. When he is on his game, his ball-striking is a perfect fit for TPC Summerlin, though he’s only played here once across the last five years.
The positive we can take from that is that he gained nearly five strokes on the greens that week and was a sharper ball-striking week from being a factor. I love the projected ownership and win equity we get around the average price for the former number one player in the world to bounce back with a fast start.
Mito Pereira ($7,800)
This is another re-tread from my small-field article, but the reality is that I’ll have a hard time getting away from Mito this week. He truly feels like a free square, which may come with extensive ownership. I think I can eat that chalk by being different in other places, and with our model rating him as the second-best player in the field, I simply don’t want to overthink it.
He was a bit ridiculously priced last week at just short of five figures and now gets a $2,100 drop in price after a T31 finish. The finish really tells the story of his putter as he lost more than 4.5 strokes on the greens but finished fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
I am hopeful others see the finish and elect to go elsewhere, though I will build my Mito lineups with the expectation he will approach 20% in projected ownership.
Value Plays
Taylor Moore ($7,300)
The fall swing is always a great place to be on a new player to the TOUR early and get paid off in a big way. Despite the Sunday struggles, many were well rewarded for Sahith Theegala last week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some go back to him this week. Instead, I am eyeing Taylor Moore, who had a great season on the Korn Ferry Tour, including 13 top-10 finishes, four top-threes, and a win. He was really steady but also showed great upside with 20 top-25 finishes in the 28 events he made the cut.
Moore missed the cut to start the year on TOUR at the Fortinet but quickly showed that consistency and upside again at the Sanderson Farms, where he finished 16th. He was able to gain strokes on the field across all metrics last week, including more than five strokes gained on the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
I’m looking to get in on Moore early at low ownership with the expectation he may have the upside to win me a big GPP.
Taylor Pendrith ($7,100)
Another young Taylor to keep an eye on this week is Taylor Pendrith. He was a chalky play last week but has just slid into the field mid-week after Kevin Na withdrew on Tuesday. I expect he will go overlooked as a late add and certainly has the value and upside to be a difference-maker this week. His biggest strength is as a bomber, which, while not required this week, can always be an advantage, as we have seen with players like Matthew Wolff in contention at this course.
I like the buy on Pendrith, especially as he showed some progressive improvement with his irons to close out the week and now gets an unexpected chance to play this week in Vegas.
Sleepers
Aaron Rai ($6,500)
When it came down to finalizing my main lineup last week for single entries and other contests, I was really torn between three players, including Aaron Rai. I dodged the Rai missed cut but still got one from Matt Wallace. Now, we get a big price reduction on Rai, who was about field average with his ball-striking last week and simply couldn’t make a putt.
The irony is that he has been known on the European Tour for his good putting, and I fully expect that to bounce back this week. If he can piece it together well enough on Thursday and Friday to find the weekend, he will certainly pay off this price for us. As a multi-time winner in Europe, he has GPP winning upside all at around 1% ownership.
Mark Hubbard ($6,100)
There aren’t many names at essentially the minimum price point that usually stick out with statistical value early in the season. Usually, we have to rely on stats from another tour to hope they translate, but this week we are getting a bit of a gift from DraftKings.
Mark Hubbard came out a few weeks ago and played really well at the Fortinet, gaining more than two strokes on the field on approach and another 5.7 on the greens in a T16 finish. He is a bentgrass putting specialist, and with the form he showed with his irons, I am going to use him as a low-rostered, price-saving option this week in GPPs.
Pictured: Adam Scott
Photo Credit: Warren Little/Getty Images
