The PGA TOUR continues hopping from state to state, heading to Las Vegas, Nevada this week after tournaments in Mississippi and Utah the past two weeks. After last week’s brand new event on a brand new course with a brand new winner–congrats, Matt McCarty!–this week’s event is historically one of the more established events of the Fall.
The Shriners Children’s Open has been around since 1983 and has been operated by Shriners since 2007. While the event was played on multiple courses for a while, TPC Summerlin has been the solo host in recent years. It first hosted the tournament in 1992 and was where Tiger Woods claimed his first PGA TOUR victory in 1996 at the age of 20. Another rising young star who has flourished on this track is Tom Kim, the two-time defending champion.
Kim will be back in action this week with a chance to go for the very rare three-peat at an event. He hasn’t played in the FedExCup Fall until this event, and he helps the field have a little more star power than the last few weeks. Joining Kim to strengthen the field are Taylor Pendrith, J.T. Poston, Davis Thompson, Cam Davis, Austin Eckroat, and Adam Hadwin, who are all playing for the first time this Fall.
TPC Summerlin is well-known for its exciting finishes due to a driveable par 4 and a reachable par 5 over water in the final few holes. The course typically plays as one of the easiest in the PGA TOUR’s regular rotation, with the cut being at 4-under or lower in four of the last five years. Players will need to go low in a hurry in this “Birdie-fest.” Historically, players can be very aggressive off the tee and focus on Strokes Gained: Approach and Birdie or Better %. It’s also important to target players who putt well on Bentgrass greens since players will have to get hot with the flat stick to contend in Vegas.
This tournament is the fourth event in the FedExCup Fall in which players can secure their PGA TOUR card and improve their status for the Signature Events at the start of next season.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Taylor Pendrith $10,200
Three players in the field this week have five-figure salaries–Tom Kim ($10,800), Davis Thompson ($10,300), and Pendrith. Even though he’s third on the list, Pendrith has the highest ceiling median and floor projection in the entire field this week. Because he also has the highest Perfect% in the field, he has the highest SimLeverage of the three big names and the highest SimLeverage of any player over $8,500.
Pendrith had a strong PGA TOUR season that led to his selection as a captain’s pick for the President’s Cup, where he went 2-3-0. He won the CJ CUP Byron Nelson back in early May and has posted 10 top-25s in his 13 events dating back to his triumph. He had top-five finishes at the 3M Open and the Barracuda Championship, and he has proven he can go very low when he’s on top of his game.
Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks second in the field in Total Strokes Gained, and he’s in the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Total and Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 30 rounds.
Last year, the 33-year-old Canadian finished T3 at this event, and he has made the cut in each of his two previous appearances at this event as well.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 13 events, and his course history and fit points to him as a great play this week as a pay-up play. You’ll have to differentiate your Pendrith lineups in other roster spots based on his ownership projection, but his upside is worth paying up for and eating a little chalk as long as you keep that in mind with the rest of your picks.
Beau Hossler $9,500
Hossler has the highest SimLeverage of all the players priced in the $9,000s. He has the lowest ownership projection in this price range as well since many aren’t willing to pay up this much for a player still looking for his first PGA TOUR win.
Hossler has a strong course history at this event, making the cut in each of his six previous appearances, highlighted by a pair of top-10 finishes. He finished T7 last year, matching his career-high at this event set back in 2017.
As he returns to TPC Summerlin, Hossler has been playing very well. He followed up a second-place finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship two weeks ago with a very solid T11 last week in Utah. He leads the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 12 rounds and is third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Throughout his career, these are the kind of events where Hossler’s profile as a bomber off the tee has kept him in contention, and if he stays hot, he should have another high finish this week and possibly even his breakthrough PGA TOUR victory.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Harry Hall $8,400
I had Hall in my picks last week in Utah, and he was right in the mix after a 64 on Saturday but faded to a disappointing T35 with a 74 on Sunday. His ownership projection makes him a little chalky this week, but I’m still back for more. I love the upside he brings along with the stability he has shown since breaking through for his first PGA TOUR victory earlier this summer at the ISCO Championship.
Including that win, Hall made the cut in eight of his last nine tournaments at the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour. He finished in the top 20 at the British Masters and the BMW PGA Championship before returning to the U.S. for last week’s inaugural Black Desert Championship.
The UNLV alum makes a lot of sense at TPC Summerlin since he’s a resident of Las Vegas and has finished in the top 26 in each of his three career appearances on this track. He has one of the best track records in the field putting on bentgrass and has proven he can go low in favorable conditions like this week.
Hall has the highest ceiling and median projection of all players under $9,000 and the third-highest Perfect%. Even though he’s chalky, like with Pendrith, I’m willing to go with the proven option at this price range in this week’s field–just be sure to differentiate elsewhere, especially if pairing the two together.
Ben Griffin $8,200
A strong play in this price range with a much lower ownership projection is Ben Griffin. Griffin has the second-highest ceiling and median projection of all players under $9,000, behind only Hall, but his ownership projection is barely over 10%. As a result, he has the highest SimLeverage of the players in the $8,000s and the second-highest in the tournament.
Griffin has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 events, including each of the last two weeks. He ranks in the top 25 in the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Total Strokes Gained over the last 12 rounds and has gained at least five strokes on his approach shots in two of his last four events.
He has not fared well in his two previous trips to this event, finishing 60th and missing the cut the last two seasons. However, after strong showings the last two weeks, he’s in the No. 62 spot in the FedExCup Fall points list. Moving up into the top 60 would qualify him for the first two signature events of 2025, so he should be very motivated to finish strong over the next few weeks.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
J.J. Spaun $7,900
Spaun has the highest ceiling projection and Perfect% of the 111 golfers priced at $8,000 or less. His ownership projection is just over 10%, but the veteran still brings a positive SimLeverage along with a ton of upside this week.
He was forced to withdraw from the Sanderson two weeks ago but bounced back with a top-25 last week in Utah. He has finished T29 or better and exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine with his withdrawal the only exception. He leads the entire field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 30 rounds and is third during that stretch in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Not only is he red-hot, but he also has a great history at TPC Summerlin. He has finished T15 or better in three of his last six tournaments at this venue and made the cut in five of those appearances.
Given his course fit and history, along with his current form, he’s my favorite play under $8,000 this week.
Ben Kohles $7,000
Last week, I started this season with “Kohles has been locked into this spot in my picks for weeks, but he continues to show extremely well in our projections.” Well, after starting red hot last week, Kohles faded to a T46 last week after a rough weekend. That’s keeping people off him this week, though, which keeps him in my picks as a good leverage play at this price. In fact, he has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field this week as he continues to pop in our projections each week.
He continues to steadily turn in good results and has exceeded salary-based expectations 11 times in his last 14 tournaments, making the cut 12 times during that stretch. The highlight of his season was a runner-up finish back at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson to Pendrith, and Kohles also added a top 10 at the Puerto Rico Open.
Kohles is seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 16 rounds and fifth over his last 12 rounds. If he can get his flatstick to cooperate, he could be right back in contention this week. I’ll keep including him in my picks for as long as he can keep this nice streak rolling. His ownership projection this week is under 4%, which seems very low given his recent production and very affordable salary.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Rico Hoey $6,900
Hoey had a blip at the Sanderson Farms and struggled to a T68, but he bounced back nicely last week with a T21 at the Black Desert Championship. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine tournaments with the one exception at the Sanderson. Hoey has made the cut in all nine of his events during that stretch and climbed to No. 102 in the FedExCup Fall.
Of all the golfers under $7,000, Hoey has the highest ceiling projection and the best Perfect% by a pretty wide margin. His salary has dropped over $1,000 since the Sanderson, so this seems like a great spot to take advantage of the discount and hope he resumes his previous form.
Over his last 30 rounds, Hoey ranks in the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and in the top 20 in Total Strokes Gained. He has proven he can go low if his streaky putter cooperates, and I think he’s way underpriced at this salary this week.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,900
Lee is another value I like a lot under $7,000. He was in my picks last week and finished a solid T46 to exceed salary-based expectations for the fourth time in his last five events. He has the fifth-highest SimLeverage and the fifth-highest Perfect% of players under $7,000 this week and continues to finish the year strong.
During his roller coaster of a season, Lee has posted three top 10s and six top 25s in his 25 events. He finished in the top 25 in two of his last five events, with four strong weeks sandwiched around a missed cut at the Procore. Over his last 12 rounds, Lee ranks in seventh in this field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and he has proven he can have success at birdie-fests like this throughout his career.
He has also been very good in the past at TPC Summerlin. He has made the cut in each of the last three years at this event with a pair of top 15s, including a T7 in last year’s event. Lee can be streaky both week to week and within any given event. His “boom or bust” nature can be frustrating at times, but his upside is worth rolling the dice on him in Vegas, especially in GPP formats.
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