Sam Burns came through with a win after really dominating the field all week from a Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green perspective. He was the rightful winner on a week where we also learned that this new class of grads have a lot of game, creating an interesting fall swing where we may see some new names breakthrough.
This week, the TOUR heads back west for a couple of stops in Las Vegas, with the first being at TPC Summerlin, which is a home track for several players as covered here by GolfWeek last year. It is also a popular spot for many players to start the new season, and we have several bigger names set to tee it up, including the season debuts for a few top 10 players in the world in Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen.
As always, we have you covered here through FantasyLabs and Action Network, where you can find the stats that matter and aligning GPP plays from Matt Vincenzi, cash game plays from Landon Silinsky, and all of our staff’s best bets. I’ll start things off this week with my favorite small-field GPP plays on DraftKings.
Top-Tier Plays
Abraham Ancer ($10,400)
The first one off the board is easy for me, as Abraham Ancer ranks out as my favorite play of the week. My only hesitation is around his price as he hasn’t proven to be a winner in his career, which is what we are looking for in the five-figure range, but he did finally capture that first win at the WGC St. Jude this summer. I am hopeful that his first win may propel him forward for more, and this would be a perfect track to see it happen.
Ancer is a player who peppers the fairways and greens, which is necessary due to his lack of distance. However, it is recipe for success at TPC Summerlin. He’s a birdie maker that can contend in a 20+ under birdie fest, and that is where this event has fallen in most years.
We have seen this play out for him with two top-four finishes in his last three trips. I am hopeful that the missed cuts sandwiched around those top finishes may keep some others from going to him to start their lineups this week.
Will Zalatoris ($10,100)
I have been a big fan of Willy Z since he made his debut on TOUR this time last year, and he certainly had a great season, earning Rookie of the Year honors. I was afraid I was missing his first win last week after he fired a 61 on Friday to put himself in the mix going into the weekend. He would falter a bit from there, but that won’t deter me from going to him this week, especially after his top-five finish at this event last season.
It helps me solidify that thought to see that he is our highest-rated player in the Strokes Gained Fantasy Labs Player Models. He makes for a good starting point and even possible pairing with Ancer with the value available down the pricing board.
Mid-Tier Plays
Corey Conners ($8,800)
It’s difficult to figure out what Corey Conners did last week to deserve such a drastic drop in price on DraftKings, but instead of questioning it, I’ll just happily take it. It seems to be forgotten how he went -4 through his first three holes on Sunday at the Sanderson Farms to take the solo lead, as he could have easily put together a round to challenge Burns. Instead, he would stumble a bit and fall back to a T17 finish, which is still respectable, especially with the drop in price.
The Canadian is my second-ranked player this week and is a similar mold to Ancer. We can expect him to hit fairways and greens at a high clip this week, and if the putter can get hot, he can contend throughout the weekend on this course.
Mito Pereira ($7,800)
The free square of the week comes with the Chilean, Mito Pereira. He was a bit ridiculously priced last week at just short of five figures and now gets a $2,100 drop in price after a T31 finish. The finish really tells the story of his putter as he lost more than 4.5 strokes on the greens but finished fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
His ball-striking is still there and still elite. There are very few players in this range with the winning upside that can match Mito at any professional level. In small field GPPs, I won’t overthink this one. He will be a lock as a core play for me.
Value Plays
Luke List ($7,200)
I am going down a bit of a dangerous road here with all of the poor putters I am set to roster, but to me, it makes sense this week. The greens at TPC Summerlin are known to be large and flat. And it is a course also known for some of the toughest up and down conversion rates on TOUR, meaning a missed green is much more penal than most places.
I say all of that to preface Luke List because he seems to be rounding back into the ball-striker we came to know and love over the last few years. He finished second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last week, only behind champion Sam Burns. If List can keep that up, he will be in a position to see the weekend in Vegas. List also has a nice track record at this event. Outside of last year’s missed cut, he had three straight top 20s in appearances prior to that. Another top 20 would be a great result at this price and seems like a reasonable result based on his form.
Lucas Glover ($7,000)
Here I am again, going back to the painful experience of hoping the good Lucas Glover shows up this week. He is hard to ignore after three consecutive top-10 finishes at this tournament. Outside of one really horrible week in 2014, he has really putted pretty well on this course.
Glover got another elusive victory over the summer, once again showing that he has the upside for victory when his game is dialed in throughout the bag. While I rag on his putting, he also shows some volatility that can be really horrible, but he also comes with the upside of gaining six or seven strokes on the greens. All of this packed together makes for an interesting GPP play, and our model agrees with him as one of the top-rated players in this range.
Better Putting Pivot: If the putting volatility has you worried, and there is some merit to that as having six guys put up, good outlier weeks is hard to expect. A great pivot in this range would be to Ian Poulter at $7,000. He is someone I like a bit to Kevin Na, who has had a lot of success around this course, with his ability to strike it well when he’s on and make a bunch of putts. Poulter can certainly both make the weekend and be a solid play for a top-20 type of finish in smaller field GPPs.
Sleepers
Chad Ramey ($6,800)
The trust the model pick of the week is on Chad Ramey. I’m not going to pretend that I have a lot of insight to give you here, but our Data-Driven Player Model absolutely loves him. The early run has him ranked among the best in the field, and he is far and away the best player rated below $7,000.
He made the cut last week at the Sanderson but finished near the bottom of the players that saw the weekend. He will look to improve on that this week and has some pedigree to do it after a season on the Korn Ferry Tour where he had 11 top 10s in 40 starts, with five top three, including a win.
Hank Lebioda ($6,300)
It is always amazing to me how quickly things can change in the perception of a golfer. This past summer, there was a several-week stretch where Hank Lebioda was approaching an $8,000 price tag and was still the highest rostered player on the slate.
Now, we fast forward three months where he is off of three straight missed cuts and priced below a lot of players just getting their feet wet on TOUR. This may be too deep to dig in the smaller field GPPs, especially with his form, but Lebioda is a player with extreme upside at this price, and he opens up a ton of options elsewhere.
If he can find a way to get through to the weekend, that alone will pay off the price tag. Lebioda also has the scoring ability to compete in these birdie contests, as we saw with his top-five finish at the John Deere this summer.
Photo Credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
Pictured: Corey Conners
