The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook failed to return value in his last game against the Brooklyn Nets, but it wasn’t due to a lack of opportunities. He posted a usage rate of 39.7 percent with Paul George out of the lineup but managed to shoot just 37 percent from the field. George is questionable for today’s contest, and if he sits expect Westbrook to field a massive usage rate once again: Russ leads the team with a usage rate of 42.5 percent with George off the court this season:
He’ll face a stiff test today against the Memphis Grizzlies, who are playing at the slowest pace in the league, but his salary has decreased by $700 on FanDuel and $1,000 on DraftKings in anticipation of the difficult matchup. He leads the slate with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
The Spurs have the potential to be really shorthanded today against the Phoenix Suns, with Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobili already ruled out and more names expected to follow. One player who could be asked to assume a larger role is Dejounte Murray, who scored 44.7 FanDuel points and played 39.5 minutes in his last opportunity to start. The Suns have been dreadful against PGs all season, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.30 for Murray on today’s slate. At just $3,600 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings, he’ll be tough to avoid if starting.
Fast Break
The best matchup of the day at the PG position belongs to Dennis Schroder, who has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.99 on DraftKings against the Orlando Magic. These two teams met on Wednesday, and Schroder scored 46.25 fantasy points. Somehow his salary is $300 cheaper on DraftKings for today’s matchup. He’s been among the leaders in usage rate all season, with his current mark of 30.1 percent ranking 13th in the league.
Damian Lillard has played at least 40 minutes in each of his past two contests and is one of the top early-season candidates for positive regression with his 3-point shooting. The Blazers are projected to be in a pace-up spot today against the Houston Rockets, with Lillard and the rest of the team owning a pace differential (paceD) of +3.4. He leads the slate with 15 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden came back to reality a bit in his last matchup against the Jazz, scoring ‘just’ 42.25 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. While today’s matchup with the Blazers doesn’t seem as difficult on paper, Portland has been a solid defensive team this season: They rank fourth in defensive efficiency, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.90 for Harden.
That said, Harden is basically matchup-proof, and he will likely take a backseat to Westbrook in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) if George were to sit. He had average ownership of just 16.5 percent on Thursday compared to 81.4 percent for Westbrook, so it could make sense to roster Harden from a game theory perspective. The Rockets lead the slate with an implied team total of 113.25 points.
Value
Kent Bazemore is an extremely streaky player, but he has been seeing consistent minutes recently. He’s played at least 30 in three of his past four games and is currently projected for 30.9 in today’s contest against the Magic. Historically, Bazemore has been a solid value with a comparable minute projection:
Fast Break
Danny Green is questionable for today’s contest after exiting yesterday’s game early and could very easily be one of the Spurs who sits today. If he does, it will leave them very thin at the position, with Brandon Paul and Bryn Forbes the most likely candidates to absorb his minutes. Both options are minimum-priced on FanDuel.
No one at the position is playing bigger minutes than Khris Middleton at the moment, seeing at least 36.5 in three straight games. He has a brutal matchup against the Utah Jazz, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.33 on DraftKings, but his $6,300 salary does result in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back today, which would normally be a concern for a player in his 15th year in the league. That said, LeBron is most likely an alien, and the Cavs seem intent on playing him close to 40 minutes a night regardless of the situation. While LeBron has historically seen a slight dip in production in back-to-back situations, he’s still managed to exceed value in them throughout his career:
He has a matchup with the 76ers today, which is enticing for a couple of reasons. Philly has played at the fourth-fastest pace this season, making this a solid pace-up spot for the Cavaliers. Unsurprisingly, their implied team total of 112.25 is one of the highest of the day. Further, LeBron has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.59 on DraftKings, making this a decent individual matchup for him as well.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a bit of an afterthought at the SF position recently thanks to a string of tough matchups, and unfortunately things may not get better today against the Utah Jazz. That said, he has been priced down to $10,400 on DraftKings due to the matchup, and he has smashed with a comparable salary this season:
He played 43 minutes yesterday against the Dallas Mavericks and leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
Jonathon Simmons played 34 minutes yesterday for a shorthanded Magic team and posted an awesome usage rate of 29.1 percent. That wasn’t exactly surprising: Simmons has seen the largest usage boost on the team with Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross off the court this season:
The Magic could be even more shorthanded today, with Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon out and D.J. Augustin questionable. Simmons will likely play as many minutes as he can handle as long as the game stays close.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has played heavy minutes for the Spurs recently and is one of the most logical candidates to get a rest today, but if he is active he’s likely underpriced on DraftKings given his current role. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41 is one of the top marks at the position.
No one on today’s slate is projected to play more minutes than T.J. Warren, who played nearly 44 in his last game without Devin Booker. He figures to be the focal point of the Suns offense – albeit in a tough matchup against the Spurs – and his current $6,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge is another logical candidate to sit today for the Spurs, but, if he does play, he could be in line for a massive workload. He already leads the team in usage at 28.7 percent, but that could jump to another level depending on who is out. With both Gasol and Manu Ginobili off the floor – the only two Spurs we know for sure are out – his usage rate has climbed to 31 percent:
If Aldridge doesn’t suit up, Davis Bertans could be a really intriguing value option at just $3,500 on FanDuel. He scored 34.8 FanDuel points against the Thunder in his only opportunity to play big minutes this season, and he’s shown the ability to score the ball at the NBA level.
Value
Marvin Williams played almost 40 minutes for the Hornets yesterday and will likely be forced into big minutes once again if Frank Kaminsky can’t suit up. He has a dream matchup against the Lakers, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.91, and would be incredibly tough to fade at his current price point across the industry.
Fast Break
Al-Farouq Aminu was expected to play 30 minutes in his last game but wound up playing 36 instead. He’s a clear value on DraftKings if he’s going to play that much, and his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He’s historically been an awesome value with a comparable minute projection and salary:
Kristaps Porzingis has been quiet recently, dealing with an ankle injury that’s cost him three games over the past two weeks. He says he’s fully recovered and could be in a position to dominate the possessions for the Knicks with Tim Hardaway Jr. currently sidelined. So far this season, Porzingis has posted a usage rate of 36.5 percent with THJ off the court:
He’s a very appealing buy-low candidate, especially on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Center
Stud
Dwight Howard turned back the clock yesterday, posting a 25-point, 20-rebound, six-block performance in 43.5 minutes for the Charlotte Hornets. If he gets to play that much again today, he has a chance to annihilate a Lakers team that has been crushed by centers all season. Dwight’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.64 on FanDuel is the second-highest mark at the position, and he leads the slate in ceiling projection. That said, this is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Hornets, so it is possible that they look to scale back Dwight’s minutes for today’s contest. He’s had a history of injuries in the past and was playing only 30 or so minutes a night before all of the Hornets’ injuries.
Values
Marreese Speights may draw the start at PF for the Magic today, which should excite daily fantasy players. Speights is only about one thing – getting buckets – and his usage rate of 27.8 percent ranks first for the Magic this season. He won’t need to play many minutes to pay off his salary given his average of 0.94 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he has an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.
Joffrey Lauvergne is another value option for today’s slate given he’ll likely draw the start for Gasol in San Antonio. While he’s not nearly as active as Speights, he does have the potential to play more minutes in a solid matchup against the Suns. The Suns haven’t dressed their best defensive center (Tyson Chandler) in each of the last two games, and if he’s inactive again today feel free to give Lauvergne a boost in your player exposures.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic has been a monster recently, going for at least 55.4 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.18 against the Hawks. It’s going to be tough to choose between Dwight, Vucevic, and the value options on FanDuel, but you can potentially play all four together on DraftKings given the utility spot and multi-position eligibility.
Clint Capela has been priced down to $6,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He’s another center with a solid matchup against the Trail Blazers, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
