Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Brewers (-115) at Pirates (+106) — 7:05 PM EST
Brewers in: Travis Shaw (sore right wrist)
Travis Shaw missed two games with a sore right wrist, but he’ll bat cleanup for a Brewers lineup presently implied to score 3.9 runs. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather, as there’s currently an estimated 52 percent chance of precipitation. The Brewers boast plenty of upside at the top of their order, as each of Eric Thames, Christian Yelich, and Shaw have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Shaw is particularly in play on DraftKings, where his $3,900 price tag comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating and a low 2-4 percent projected ownership rate. They’ll face off against righty Chad Kuhl, who ranks among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. Still, Kuhl will have his hands full with a Brewers lineup that has combined to post a .326 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the fifth-highest mark in Wednesday’s main slate.
Pirates in: Austin Meadows (sore right foot)
Pirates out: Corey Dickerson (family medical emergency leave list), Francisco Cervelli
The Pirates will welcome back Austin Meadows, who will bat second after missing time with a sore right foot. Meanwhile, Francisco Cervelli will receive a routine day off, and Corey Dickerson is expected to miss up to three days on the family emergency medical leave list. The Pirates are currently implied to score just 3.7 runs, although Josh Harrison, Meadows, and Jose Osuna form the main slate’s highest-rated three-man stack in combined ISO. Still, the lineup as a whole has combined to post a mediocre .288 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, which is tied for the second-worst mark in Wednesday’s main slate. They’ll take on southpaw Brent Suter, who has averaged 7.53 K/9 and a 1.25 WHIP over the past calendar year. Suter carries a below-average 4.4 K prediction and is a very risky play due to an estimated 52 percent chance of precipitation in Pittsburgh.
Red Sox (-142) at Twins (+131) — 8:10 PM EST
Twins in: Robbie Grossman
Twins out: Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer will receive a routine day off, so Robbie Grossman will lead off for a Twins lineup presently implied to score just 3.9 runs against the Red Sox. Mauer’s absence is good news for southpaw David Price, who has allowed three or fewer runs while pitching at least five innings in seven consecutive starts. He’s continued to do a great job limiting big hits, allowing an average hard-hit rate of 18 percent with an average exit velocity of 89 miles per hour over the past 15 days. Price has a respectable 5.8 K Prediction and ranks third in Wednesday’s main slate with an average of 9.4 K/9 over the past calendar year. Exposure to Price should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,600 price tag comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and a low 5-8 percent projected ownership rate. Both pitchers could benefit from estimated wind gusts of nine miles per hour blowing in from center field.
