NFL Week 10 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Kyler Murray at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $19,500 as opposed to $13,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
The two quarterbacks are the marquee targets on this slate. Murray and Russell Wilson have been two of the best players in fantasy this season, with Murray ranking first in fantasy points per game and Wilson ranking third. If you remove Dak Prescott from the equation – who played in just five games – these have been the two highest scoring players in fantasy on a per-game basis.
Murray is the more expensive option, but his price tag is definitely deserved. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his first nine games, and he’s scored at least 28.92 DraftKings points in each of his past five.
Murray’s biggest weapon this season has been his increased production as a runner. He’s nearly doubled his yards per game output from his rookie season (67.1 vs. 34.0), and he’s also racked up a whopping 10 touchdowns on the ground. Only Dalvin Cook has scored more rushing touchdowns this season and only seven players have accumulated more rushing yards. That is an absolutely lethal combination for fantasy purposes.
Overall, Murray has averaged more than 13.7 DraftKings points per game before factoring in any of his passing statistics. To put that in perspective, Lamar Jackson – who basically rewrote the fantasy record book at the QB position last season – averaged 11.84 DraftKings points per game with his legs.
He should be able to provide plenty of fantasy value with his arm in this matchup as well. The Seahawks pass defense has been anemic this season, giving Murray an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.3 on DraftKings. That’s the top mark on the slate.
Murray also leads all players in median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, so he’s a very tough fade even at an elevated price tag.
Wilson has cooled down a bit after a torrid start to the season, but there is still plenty to like about him in this matchup. The Cardinals have also been a great matchup for quarterbacks this season, giving Wilson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.3 on DraftKings.
Additionally, the Seahawks have a clear edge in terms of Vegas data. They’re three-point home favorites, giving the Seahawks an implied team total of 29.75 points. Wilson has played in just 11 games with a comparable implied team total, and he’s averaged a ridiculous +7.08 Plus/Minus in those contests (per the Trends tool).
Getting both QBs in your lineup will be difficult – particularly if you want to roster one at Captain – but it’s doable if you get a little creative with the rest of your selections.
The top pass catchers in this contest will also garner heavy consideration in the stud tier.
That means DeAndre Hopkins for the Cardinals, who combined with Murray for one of the top plays of the NFL season last week vs. the Bills. Hopkins has been nothing short of a target monster this year. He ranks fourth in the league with an average of 9.8 targets per game, and that probably undersells his involvement in the Cards’ passing attack. His three targets vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago is the only reason this number isn’t higher, and he’s received at least 12 targets two of the past three weeks.
The Seahawks should have absolutely no answer for Hopkins in this contest. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.3 on DraftKings, and Pro Football Focus gives him one of the largest matchup edges at the position for all of Week 11.
Things aren’t as easy to decipher on the Seattle side. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have seemingly taken turns as the Seahawks’ WR1 this season, and both players have put together some huge performances. Lockett absolutely torched the Cardinals in their first meeting, recording 15 catches for 200 yards and three touchdowns. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that he has a better individual matchup than Metcalf in this contest according to PFF.
Both guys look like excellent options, but I would give the slight edge to Lockett as long as he’s active. He’s currently listed as questionable, but head coach Pete Carroll said he expects Lockett to be in the lineup.
Midrange
Given that the stud tier is so robust, the midrange tier is unsurprisingly lacking.
Christian Kirk has emerged as the clear No. 2 WR for the Cardinals. He’s logged at least six targets in three straight games, including eight in his first matchup vs. the Seahawks. He’s coming off a down week vs. the Bills in Week 10, but he has solid upside for his price tag.
The Cardinals RBs are also priced in this range and both players could have some viability. Kenyan Drake will likely lead the team in carries, and he finished with 100 yards in his first game back from an injury last week vs. the Bills. That said, this game vs. the Seahawks doesn’t appear to be a good fit from a game script perspective. He had just 14 carries in his first matchup vs. the Seahawks and finished with just 5.1 DraftKings points.
That could make Chase Edmonds the better pure value. He’s the pass catcher out of the backfield, and he outsnapped Drake by a significant margin in the first matchup vs. the Seahawks. His role also gives him a slightly higher ceiling, particularly on a full-PPR site like DraftKings.
On the Seahawks side, Carlos Hyde could be a nice source of value. Chris Carson is not expected to suit up tonight, and Travis Homer is also listed as doubtful. That leaves Hyde, Alex Collins, and DeeJay Dallas to handle the rushing load. Hyde has played over these two players all season, so I see no reason why that would change tonight. Hyde served as an injury replacement for Carson the first time these teams met this year, and he finished with 16.6 DraftKings points.
Values & Punts
- David Moore: $4,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Moore has had some relevant fantasy performances this season and is coming off a season-high 61% snap share in his last contest. Still, his salary on DraftKings feels too expensive.
- Larry Fitzgerald: $4,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – I wouldn’t expect Larry Legend to garner much ownership in this contest, but he’s finished with at least five targets in four of his past five games. The only thing he hasn’t done is score a touchdown, he has seen a red zone target in three of the past four weeks.
- Kickers & Defenses – These options are always in play in the single-game format. They don’t stand out in game that is expected to be high scoring, but they’re cheap and late-season divisional matchups tend to be lower scoring than expected:
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- Greg Olsen: $3,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Olsen played on 72% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps last week and is always a threat to score a touchdown in the red zone.
- Dan Arnold: $2,200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – Arnold has emerged as the clear top TE for the Cardinals, but it remains to be seen if that role can produce consistent fantasy value. That said, he’s scored at least 7.4 DraftKings points in two of the past three weeks, so he has some appeal at his current salary.
- Freddie Swain: $1,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Swain is my favorite punt play on the slate, and it will be interesting to see what his ownership checks in at. He saw a season-high four targets and played on 37% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps last week.
