Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Cash Game Strategy
Seattle’s best path to pulling off a road upset is to make this a Chris Carson game. The 49ers entered Week 1 rated No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, but just 20th against the run. The loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander leaves linebacking unit of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw as the clear weak link of the unit.
The top five-projected skill players in terms of floor in our DraftKings Showdown Models are Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida, and Carson is the highest-projected one who you can put in the Captain spot and still fit the other four (by punting with Luke Willson).
FanDuel’s half-point PPR scoring gives a decisive edge to QBs. Case in point: Our models have the lower-rated of the two QBs (Jimmy G) projected for more than 17 FD points, while no skill-position player cracks 13. The key on FD is Deebo Samuel at $8,000. George Kittle (knee, doubtful) leaves behind 25% of the targets, and Samuel (17%) is the other player on the team besides Emmanuel Sanders (24%) commanding more than 10% of the pie; No. 2 options are typically right around 20%. With Samuel as the lowest-cost player, you can field a lineup of Wilson, Garoppolo, Carson, Breida and Samuel.
If you’re interested in diversifying to protect against a potential Coleman blowup game, swapping Garoppolo and Samuel for Coleman Sanders would be the move, but note the latter pairing gives up nearly three projected points relative to the former, which (again) is due to the half-PPR lowering the floors of skill players relative to QBs.
Core GPP Plays
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