After a couple of weeks off, the PGA TOUR is back in action as the FedExCup Fall resumes this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi. This event has definitely brought the drama over the last few years, including a five-way playoff last year, where Luke List emerged victorious. Each of the last two years, a playoff has determined the Sanderson Farms winner, as well as in three of the last five years.
The tournament is being played at The Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi for the 11th straight season. The course itself is a long, low-scoring, and fairly straightforward. The Bermuda greens are typically fast, and long hitters who can get hot with their putter have typically scored very well on this track.
The course was renovated and redesigned by John Fought in the style of Donald Ross, so players with good history on Ross designs typically play well here. The setup also sets up for long hitters, so we’ll focus on Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee as well as Strokes Gained: Approach. We’ll also lean into players who putt well on Bermuda greens and perform well in low-scoring events.
The field this week is typical of many Fall events, without many big names competing. Most of the players are from outside the top 50 that already secured their status for next season. The two exceptions to that this week are Eric Cole and Nick Dunlap, who headline a field that includes past champions Mackenzie Hughes, Cameron Champ, Mackenzie Hughes, Ryan Armour, Peter Malnati, and Cody Gribble. The most recognizable name in the field this week is probably Rickie Fowler, who will be making his debut at this event as he plays his first event since The Open Championship after taking time off for the birth of his second child.
One of the exciting things about a field like this is seeing which players can break through for a victory. Six of the last 10 winners in Jackson have been first-time PGA TOUR winners. Last year’s winner, Luke List was not, but he is looking to become the first back-to-back winner at this event in 50 years.
This tournament is the second of the eight FedExCup Fall events that will fill October and November as players try to improve their status for next season. At the end of The RSM Classic in a few weeks, the top 125 in the FedExCup standings will retain exempt status for 2025, with Nos. 126-150 retaining conditional status. Players outside the top 125 will also have a chance to improve or regain TOUR status via PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Nick Dunlap $9,700
Dunlap has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field and the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection. His ownership projection is a little high but doesn’t come close to matching his Perfect%, which indicates he has the highest chance of any golfer in the field to be in the optimal lineup, according to our thousands of sims. Dunlap is also tied for the shortest odds to win this event and is tied for the second-shortest odds to finish in the top 10.
While he’ll be making his tournament debut, he should be right at home in Mississippi. He played his college golf at nearby Alabama and should thrive on this layout. Dunlap won twice on the PGA TOUR this season, once as an amateur and once at the Barracuda Championship in scorable conditions in late July.
Dunlap made it into the second of three playoff events, finishing T5 at the St. Jude Championship and then T31 at the BMW Championship. He hasn’t played since then, but he has all the tools to produce a high finish this week.
He’s the highest-ranked golfer in the field and has put together probably the most impressive season of any player in the field. Getting the 20-year-old at only the sixth-most expensive play is also a very cost-effective way to start your lineup.
Ben Griffin $9,500
Griffin has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the entire field and the fourth-highest Perfect%. Like Dunlap, Griffin made it to the PGA TOUR playoffs but hasn’t played since. He finished T7 at the Wyndham Championship and then posted a T50 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Last year, Griffin had a big lead at this event and looked lined up for his first PGA TOUR win before collapsing down the stretch and ending up in the playoff. He lost to List but has finished T24 and T2 in his two career appearances at the Sanderson.
Griffin ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 50 rounds and fifth in Total Strokes Gained during that span. That run includes his top-10 finishes at the Wyndham and the John Deere Classic.
Griffin has proven he can contend on this track and go low in a hurry. He has a high floor and a high ceiling at this salary, and I love both his relative security and high upside. He’s a little chalky with the third-highest projected ownership in the field, but he brings enough upside to still be a strong play. Just make sure to differentiate your Griffin lineups with a contrarian play elsewhere.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Chan Kim $8,900
Kim has the highest Perfect% of all players under $9,400 and is the only player in that price range that matches seven Pro Trends. Kim has the seventh-highest SimLeverage in the field, with just a 13% ownership projection and plenty of potential for success.
Kim has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six PGA TOUR events, with top-30 finishes at the Procore Championship and the Wyndham Championship in his last two tournaments. He finished top-10 at the ISCO Championship in July and has seven top-25 finishes and three top 10s this season.
Over the last six months, Kim leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, is third in Strokes Gained: Approach and ranks second in Total Strokes Gained. His putter deserted him in his last round at the ProCore, or he could have finished even higher than his T26.
Throughout the year, Kim has shown he can contend in low-scoring events against shallow fields like this, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday in Jackson or possibly even ready to claim his first PGA TOUR victory.
Matt Kuchar $8,500
Kuchar’s temperament rubs some people the wrong way, but the 46-year-old veteran continues to churn out good finishes. He has the highest SimLeverage of any golfer between $8,000 and $9,000 this week since his ownership projection is under 8%.
He has recently been playing some of the best golf in a long time, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 events. He finished T3 at the 3M Open and T12 at the Wyndham Championship before taking a month off during the FedExCup Playoffs. He continued to look sharp, though, with a T13 at the Procore Championship to start the FedExcup Fall.
Over the last 20 rounds, Kuchar ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and fourth in Total Strokes Gained. While he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since 2019, his nine career wins show his ability to close. He ranks No. 102 this year in the FedExCup Fall, so he’ll need a few more strong finishes to lock up his full-time card for next year. Locking up that spot is why he decided to come back to finish on Monday at the Wyndham a few weeks ago and why he’s playing this course for the first time in his career.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Rico Hoey $8,000
Hoey is right in the same FedExCup range as he is looking to finish the season strong to secure his spot for next season. After securing his spot on the PGA TOUR last season by finishing in the top 30 on the Korn Ferry Tour Points List, Hoey struggled badly early in the year. He missed the cut in 10 of his first 15 events and only finished in the top 30 one time. He flipped the switch in the summer, though, catching fire with three top 10s in four events, including a playoff loss at the ISCO Championship.
Over the last 24 rounds, Hoey ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained and seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He had a shaky Saturday in Napa at the Procore Championship, but his second-round 66 was still good enough to push him to a T37 finish.
While he is making his debut on this track, it should fit his game well since he ranks 10th on the PGA TOUR in total driving and 22nd in par-5 scoring. He has proven he can go low in a hurry and exceed where he can claim birdies in bunches.
Hoey has the fourth-highest Perfect% of all golfers with salaries under $9,000 and an ownership projection under 10%. He has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in that salary range and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries of at least $8,000. He’s a great play at this price and has a legitimate shot to contend if he continues his recent form.
Ben Kohles $7,200
Kohles continues to show extremely well in our projections due to his steady ability to make cuts and exceed salary-based expectations. He has been a fixture in my value picks for the last few tournaments with this kind of field and has regularly turned in solid numbers.
Even though he finished T64 at the Procore, he still managed to exceed salary-based expectations for the ninth time in his last 12 tournaments. He has made the cut in 10 of those 12 tournaments, including a runner-up finish back at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Kohles doesn’t quite fit the profile of a bomber, but he does gain strokes off the tee with his accuracy. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks in the top 30 in Total Strokes Gained and in the to 25 in Strokes Gained: Approach.
As a steady cut maker, Kohles has been consistently overperforming which makes him a solid play in this price range. He has the third-highest SimLeverage in the entire field and the highest SimLeverage of any player with a salary under $8,000.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Davis Riley $6,900
Riley has good upside if you are willing to take some risk with your sleeper play. He led after Round 1 and finished in the top 20 when he played the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2022 but missed the cut in his return last season. This is basically a home game for Riley since he is a Mississippi native and resident, and he always has plenty of crowd support.
While his overall season results are fairly mediocre, Riley has exceeded salary-based expectations seven times in his last 10 events, including claiming his first PGA TOUR victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Riley didn’t play in the Procore but did make the cut in his last two PGA TOUR events at the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship.
His ownership projection is under 2% for this event, but he comes with huge “spike” potential after winning twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 and also claiming a win at the Zurich Classic before winning the Schwab. There aren’t a lot of options under $7,000 who can seriously contend this week, but Riley is definitely one of them.
Garrick Higgo $6,800
Higgo also has an ownership projection under 2% this week, but I like the South African lefty’s upside. He already has a PGA TOUR win on his resume from back in 2021 and is still only 25 years old.
As a lefty, certain courses play more to his shot shape and positioning. This one seems to be a great fit since he has a great history at this event, finishing just one shot out of the playoff in 2022 and following that up with a T16 last year on the strength of rounds of 65 and 66.
He starts this week ranked No. 150 in the FedExCup Fall and will need a surge to keep his card. He missed the cut in eight of 10 events before the FedExCup Playoffs started, but he showed much better form with a T26 at the Procore in the first event of the Fall.
Higgo has the seventh-highest SimLeverage of the options under $7,000 and matches four Pro Trends, which is tied for the second-most of any player in this price range.
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