The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook seems to have returned to his old ways, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.86 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He’s coming off a monster 69.6-point performance on FanDuel against the Jazz, and now gets one of the best matchups in fantasy basketball against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets play at the third-fastest pace and rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, and PGs have averaged the fifth-highest Plus/Minus against them this season:
To make things even better for Westbrook, Paul George has been ruled out of today’s contest, and Westbrook has posted a ridiculous 43.7 percent usage rate with George off the court this season:
This contest will be played in Mexico City as a part of the NBA Mexico Games. The NBA doesn’t have a long history of neutral-site games, but they haven’t historically led to a decrease in fantasy production, with players projected for at least 25 minutes owning a higher average Plus/Minus in neutral site games than in traditional home and road contests. Westbrook will be the highest-priced DFS player to play in a neutral-site game at $11,500. That likely doesn’t matter considering the matchup and injury news for the Thunder, but it’s worth noting nonetheless.
Value
The Suns officially re-signed Mike James on Wednesday and are going to need him, given the injury to Devin Booker. So far this season, James has led the team with a usage rate of more than 31 percent with Booker off the court:
James played extremely well in the only other game that Booker has missed this season, scoring 39.5 FanDuel points and 31 minutes. He’s extremely affordable at $4,500 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has not had a great start to his tenure with the Jazz, but he is coming off 34 minutes of playing time in his last game. If he sees that much court time again today, he has a good shot at paying off value in a massive pace-up spot against the Rockets, with the Jazz players owning a pace-differential (paceD) of +8.9.
Tomas Satoransky played more minutes than Tim Frazier for the fifth-straight game. He looks like the PG to own in Washington given the injury to John Wall. He has the top matchup of the day at the PG position against the Phoenix Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.63 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden will likely take a backseat to Westbrook on today’s slate given his matchup with the Utah Jazz, but no one has played better than him over the past month. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.71 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, which is significantly higher than the average for every other player on the slate. Harden has seen his salary decline by nearly $1,000 on DraftKings in anticipation of the tough matchup, but Harden has actually had a fair amount of success against the Jazz over the past two seasons:
He went for 83.5 DraftKings points in his first matchup with the Jazz this season, although that game came with Chris Paul out of the lineup. Harden probably doesn’t have the same kind of upside today with CP3 playing, but he’s still a very appealing target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) considering the likely ownership discount from Westbrook.
Bradley Beal broke out of his slump in a big way against the Trail Blazers on Tuesday, scoring 51 real points on a 43.7 percent usage rate. He gets to follow up that success with a dream matchup against the Phoenix Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.47 on DraftKings. Considering the matchups and salaries, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Beal have a higher average ownership than Harden on today’s slate.
Value
Troy Daniels will likely enter the starting lineup for the Phoenix Suns today. The last time Booker was sidelined, Daniels played more than 31 minutes. He didn’t do much in those minutes, scoring just 14.5 FanDuel points, but it’s rare to find that kind of minute upside at a $3,700 salary.
Fast Break
J.J. Redick has been extremely productive for the 76ers recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.72 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has failed to exceed salary-based expectations in two-straight games for the Lakers, which has resulted in a salary decrease of $500 on FanDuel for today’s contest against the 76ers. Most of the reason for his poor fantasy output has been a lack of minutes in blowouts, which doesn’t figure to be the case today: The Lakers are only 7.5-point underdogs in Philly.
Small Forward
Stud
SF is a weak position made even weaker by the news that George wont play. That leaves TJ Warren as the lone stud candidate, who will likely have the opportunity to work as the No. 1 option in Phoenix given the injury to Booker. So far this season, he’s seen a usage bump of 2.4 percent while averaging more than 32 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Booker off the court:
He has one of the biggest pricing discrepancies of the day between the two sites: $8,100 on FanDuel and $6,500 on DraftKings.
Values
It’s unclear who will enter the starting lineup for George in today’s contest, with Josh Huestis, Alex Abrines, and Patrick Patterson looking like the most logical options. Andre Roberson is already starting for the Thunder, but George’s absence should solidify his minutes in the mid-30s. He’s actually been pretty effective recently from a fantasy standpoint, especially on FanDuel where he gets an extra point for steals and blocks.
For some reason, the Nets have been playing Joe Harris quite a bit recently. He’s seen at least 28 minutes of playing time in four of his past five games and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.20 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. He’s dirt-cheap at $3,700.
Fast Break
Otto Porter took a backseat to Beal in their last game, but he’s actually seen the larger bump in usage of the two with Wall off the court this season. He has a chance for a big game against the Suns, with his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.07 ranking first at the SF position.
DeMarre Carroll has been quite good for the Nets all season, but he’s taken on an even larger role since the injury to D’Angelo Russell. He’s averaged approximately 35.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Russell and Lin off the floor, and his matchup against OKC looks a lot rosier given the injury to George.
Power Forward
Studs
Ben Simmons is the real deal. He’s averaged 45.6 FanDuel points per game in his rookie season, which has resulted in a Consistency Rating of 86 percent and Upside Rating 68 percent. He has an elite matchup against the Lakers:v+3.86 Opponent Plus/Minus and a Ceiling Projection that’s roughly 30 points higher than any other PF on FanDuel. Philly also leads the slate with an implied team total of 114.5 points.
While it’s hard to knock Simmons, Carmelo Anthony may wind up being the stronger play at the position given the injury to George. He’s seen a 9.1 percent increase in usage with George off the floor this season, which he’s parlayed into an average of 43.26 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
If that wasn’t enough, he gets to take on a Nets team that has been shredded by opposing big men all season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.33. And with Jerami Grant injured, Melo could see even more playing time. This is a really tough spot to fading.
Value
Markieff Morris is coming off 30 minutes in his last game, and if he’s going to play that much, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $4,800 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings. He’s yet another PF with a strong matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.30 on FanDuel against the Phoenix Suns.
Fast Break
It’s always difficult to project the PF minutes for the Lakers, but if their last game with the 76ers is any indication, Kyle Kuzma should get a decent bit of run tonight. He’s coming off one of the best games of his young career in his last outing, scoring 40.4 FanDuel points in just 27.5 minutes. Brook Lopez got run off the floor by Joel Embiid in their last matchup, so Larry Nance Jr. and Julius Randle could wind up seeing some additional minutes at center tonight. All three options have some appeal in GPPs.
Center
Stud
For a small four-game slate, tonight’s NBA action certainly doesn’t lack star power. Joel Embiid has been somewhat quiet recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.95 on DraftKings over his past eight games, but that could all change tonight against the Lakers. He smashed the Lakers for 90.75 DraftKings points in their last meeting, doing absolutely everything in a 45-point, 15-rebound, 7-assist, 7-block performance. He may be a little overlooked given the situation in Oklahoma City, but Embiid’s upside in this matchup is as high as anyone’s on the slate.
Value
The Suns have been doing a weird rotation at the center position, with Tyson Chandler, Alex Len, and Greg Monroe all having games when they play big minutes and games when they don’t play at all. Chandler should be good to go today after sitting out on Tuesday and is coming off a 36-minute performance in his last game. He looks like a strong value on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Steven Adams could get a bump wth all of OKC’s injuries, although he doesn’t really need one given how well he’s played recently. He’s scored at least 33.75 DraftKings points in three straight games and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.27 in today’s matchup against the Nets.
Clint Capela has averaged the fourth-highest per-minute output on DraftKings over the past month, with only Westbrook, Harden, and Embiid better. Capela’s $6,500 salary makes him drastically cheaper than the other three options, albeit in a brutal matchup against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
