With the NFL draft and free agency having come and gone, we’ll break down all sorts of fantasy-relevant questions entering the 2018 season. Up next is another look at the Saints’ backfield, this time using the Rushing Expectation methodology.
The Saints’ improvement on defense was a huge reason for their step forward as a team in 2017, but what you probably remember from a DFS perspective was Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram lighting the world on fire nearly every week.
Kamara and Ingram finished first and fifth, respectively, in all-purpose yards in the final 12 weeks of the season, the former smashing what we thought we knew about efficiency at the running back position in the process.
That said, the Saints offensive line likely doesn’t get enough credit. New Orleans finished second in Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), per Football Outsiders, with their 4.93 mark in the 99th percentile overall since 2000.
Be sure and check out Ian Hartitz’s piece on Alvin Kamara from earlier in the offseason, but today we will dive a bit more deeply into the backfield and how we should value Ingram, who will serve a suspension in Weeks 1-4 (vs. TB, vs. CLE, at ATL, at NYG).
Note: If you’re not familiar with Rushing Expectation, watch the video below for a brief intro.
Usage
Naturally, there were significant differences between how Ingram and Kamara were used, both between the tackles and in the receiving game.
Ingram rarely ran to the outside, and he saw the vast majority of his targets behind the line of scrimmage:
In direct contrast, Kamara saw targets of five-plus air yards at a well above-average rate, a testament to his unique pass-catching skill set. Between the tackles, the Saints wisely deployed Kamara with a much larger emphasis on getting to the edge to turn the corner, usually on tosses, sweeps or stretch plays.
The sample size for Kamara is on the smaller side as a runner, but one important conclusion that can be drawn is the Saints’ willingness to line him up as a receiver with Ingram still on the field. Further, his allocation of targets of five-plus air yards ranked in the 84th percentile in my 458-player receiving sample since 2009.
Ingram’s usage as a pass-catcher behind the line of scrimmage puts more pressure on him to accrue yardage (and fantasy points) on his own in space.
Efficiency
Expectation Score is the signature metric of Rushing Expectation and highlights the fact that not every Success Rate is created equal. Expectation Score is a running back’s actual Success Rate divided by his Expected Success Rate. A number higher than 1.0 means he performed above expectation relative to blocking, and a number lower than 1.0 means he performed below expectation relative to blocking.
The Saints are expected to bring back all of their starters up front this season. Left tackle Terron Armstead was arguably the team’s worst lineman, so it’s interesting that Ingram ran an above-average amount of his rush attempts through that lane. The strength of the Saints’ O-line lies on the right side:
- LT Terron Armstead, ranked No. 39 of 79 qualified tackles in run blocking by Pro Football Focus (52.17% snap rate)
- LG Andrus Peat, No. 28 of 78 (88.62%),
- C Max Unger, No. 27 of 35 (100.00%)
- RG Larry Warford, No. 19 of 78 (79.46%)
- RT Ryan Ramczyk, No. 7 of 79 (100.00%)
Interestingly enough, the PFF grades look considerably worse than I would have expected considering their historic ALY ranking.
The reason for this is likely because ALY is not a pure offensive-line grade; it’s a metric that assigns a certain amount of responsibility to the offensive line for every rush based on the length of that rush. For example, the offensive line is given most of the responsibility on short runs close to the line of scrimmage but doesn’t get as much credit for yardage gained by the running back farther downfield.
Many of my metrics are based around ALY — which I find much more intuitive for separating running back talent from offensive line strength — so let’s see how Ingram stacked up against these sky-high expectations:
Ingram’s most efficient running lane overall tends to be off left tackle, but it is also the only lane in which he reached his expectation between the tackles. His most efficient target depth was behind the line of scrimmage — again, where he saw his largest target share (49.3%).
Unsurprisingly, what stands out about Kamara is how he absolutely smashed expectations as a receiver:
The Saints ranked ninth (73rd percentile overall) in Adjusted Reception Yards (ARY), a comparable metric to ALY that I created to mirror offensive lines’ impact on the receiving game for the running back position.
What Kamara was able to do through the air in 2017 was truly special. With notably high expectations, he crushed it at nearly every level of the field as a pass-catcher. He was most efficient as a runner behind the team’s advantage to the right side, but it’s incredibly impressive that his Expectation Scores of 0.97 through the middle and to the left end nearly met some of the highest expectations I have seen in this study.
It’s hard to be nearly as starstruck by Ingram, but it’s notable that he saw a loaded box far more often than Kamara. Along with a massive difference in overall efficiency, Ingram wasn’t even in the same stratosphere as Kamara in regard to generating big plays:
Takeaways
- Ingram and Kamara’s rushing Success Rate was well above the league average, but the former actually performed below expectation after adjusting for his offensive line in New Orleans. This shows how much O-line matters: It’s possible that Kamara had shown enough to dip into Ingram’s touches even before the suspension.
- Kamara had noticeably more time behind the line of scrimmage between the two backs — not surprising because he is the far more elusive player — but bouncing runs outside and rarely facing eight-plus defenders could have a lot to do with that as well.
- In 2017, we saw some dominant performances in the passing game, but only Kareem Hunt (96th), Le’Veon Bell (93rd), and Todd Gurley (88th) finished with a higher historical percentile overall in the passing game than Kamara (82nd) did.
- Ingram’s 14th percentile Expectation Score between the tackles is certainly notable, considering he posted a 79th percentile score behind a comparably strong offensive line in 2016.
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2018 Outlook
Kamara stands above expectations at nearly every level of the field, and he knows how to create big plays even if we factor in some negative regression for his sophomore season. He has the luxury of getting four games to showcase himself as a feature back, and considering Ingram’s drop-off last season and his troubled past with Sean Payton, it’s entirely possible that Kamara gives the Saints plenty of reasons to never look back. If we see market share skew more heavily to Kamara even after the suspension, Ingram may have a tough time paying off his fourth-round ADP.
You can use our tools to research more player- or team-specific questions for yourself, and be sure to check out The Action Network for more in-depth NFL analysis.
Pictured above: Mark Ingram (22) and Alvin Kamara (41)
Photo credit: Chuck Cook – USA TODAY Sports
