There’s been no Masters hangover at FantasyLabs and GolfBet. We have rolled right into this week’s RSM Classic and shared a plethora of information on the course, players, and key stats to target. They are great resources to reference as you begin building DFS lineups this week:
Matt Vincenzi’s Stats That Matter
Landon Silinsky’s Cash Game Plays
As I noted in my preview, it’s key to keep in mind that players will be playing two courses this week, with one round on the Plantation Course on Thursday or Friday. There will be ample opportunity especially in Showdown contests to attack this easier Par 72 course, but it will be more difficult to follow with shotlink only available on the Seaside Course. I personally won’t be weighing the factors of that one round too much into my full-slate lineups, but I know that round will be important for my players to play well in order to see the weekend.
Matt’s key stats give us a great base, and I will add to that two key DFS scoring categories in Birdie or Better Percentage and Bogey Avoidance. This is an event where each of the past five winners have posted low scores between 17 and 22-under par, but they have also done so by saving par where needed. The added effect of winds on this coastal course could also come into play this weekend, which will make that bogey avoidance statistic even more important.
These are the core statistics that I will use for my model this week as I build lineups and will be the main statistical points for my picks below.
Top Tier
Webb Simpson $11,200 DK/$12,000 FD
it looks as though I will be eating a lot of chalk with my first pick, as Webb Simpson is currently projected for around 35% ownership this week at the RSM Classic. Similar to what we see each year at the Wyndham Championship, the conversation around who wins the tournament starts with the former Wake Forrest Demon Deacon.
He comes in off of a Top-10 finish at The Masters last week, to an event he lost in a playoff last year, following a third place finish the year before. Webb is a great fit for these courses at the RSM Classic, and they clearly fit his eye. There is also nothing you will find in his game that will turn you off of his ability to repeat those performances despite this year’s stronger field. I will be looking to get a good amount of exposure to Simpson in tournaments this week and will attempt to get over the field, but will have to choose carefully with my other five roster spots.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,900 DK/10,900 FD
One of the first places I will get a bit different than the field is with Matthew Fitzpatrick. He seems like the perfect course fit for Sea Island, but he’s slotted in between some of the DFS favorites of the week. As our stats point out, fairways and putting on Bermuda will be key this week, and Fitzpatrick fits in near the top in both of those categories. I see him as a similar mold to some of the prior winners at the RSM Classic as his game matches up well with that of Kevin Kisner, MacKenzie Hughes, and Tyler Duncan.
Fitzpatrick is currently projecting at just over 10% ownership as English, Henley and Hatton soak up a ton of ownership in this range, likely leaving the Englishman as the odd man out. I’ll will happily slide in his great course fit, and solid form for the top end of my lineups.
Jason Day $9,300 DK/$11,500 FD
I am intrigued by the form that Jason Day has flashed at times this year, but the caveat with him is that you can always throw out the statistics. He won’t be at the top of any statistical model, so when I play him it’s more a fit and feel play.
He is coming in off of a missed cut at the Masters, but that was after being in the final group on Sunday at the Houston Open where he finished 7th making it five top 7s in his last eleven events. I also like Day’s fit here as the Australian will be just fine on this coastal track regardless of the winds, and his short game is in line with those same prior winners.
I love that I get a top caliber player like Day at a discounted price where I don’t need him to win to payoff, but he still certainly has that upside. Add to it that he’s only projected to be about 4% owned and he can be a difference maker in lineups this week at the RSM Classic.
Corey Conners $8,900 DK/$10,300 FD
I have Corey Conners ranked seventh in my overall model this week, which puts him right near the top of my best value plays in the higher price ranges. He comes in hot over his last three starts after he charged up the leaderboard on the weekend at The Masters to finish 10th, finished 24th in Houston, and 8th at the ZOZO. Obviously that’s some outstanding form, and it trends right into an event where he’s improved each year he’s played.
Conners is known for his ball-striking, ranking first in this field for that category over the last 12 months, which will serve him well this week in Sea Island. The biggest concern with the Canadian is his short game, but if he can play on and around the greens to even just field average this week, he will likely be in position to contend over the weekend.
Ian Poulter $8,300 DK/$9,900 FD
Similar to Jason Day, I usually don’t see Ian Poulter flashing at the top of my statistical models. I know what he does well, and try to match the right fit to his game. That course fit is often in play at Augusta National, which played out again as he posted a Top 25 finish last week. This week, he should find another course to his liking that will value and reward his great short game and often hot putter.
Poulter is a feel play for me this week, as I like his fit at Sea Island where he’s made the cut in a prior start. He’s currently trending below 10% ownership, which makes him another spot for me to get unique with Webb as many will pair him down with Doc Redman.
Austin Cook $7,500 DK/$9,600 FD
There are some pretty clear spots where ownership is pooling in the mid-$7k range on DraftKings. It appears that Harold Varner III will be the heaviest chalk, followed potentially by a hot playing Georgia Bulldog in Sepp Straka. I see and understand those plays as high model players for me as well, but Austin Cook is in that same range.
Cook, a former winner of this event, is playing great golf in his own right. He finished second at the Shriners, and 24th most recently in Houston. He seems to have found his ball striking which was the key to his success earlier in his career. Cook also shows a distinct preference for Bermuda greens, and we know he has fond memories of these courses.
Russell Knox $7,200 DK/$8,500 FD
As you’ll see in our staff picks article on GolfBet, Russell Knox is my longshot pick to win. I love the way his game is trending coming into the RSM Classic, and I think he could be in position to contend.
Knox is coming in off of back to back top 14 finishes in Bermuda and Houston, following a dreadful stretch of golf last season. He has really found the form that had been missing for such a long time especially with his irons, and now goes to a course where he posted a Top 20 last year. He’s a nice cheap value on both sites, where we know he has the upside to win if he plays his best game.
Patton Kizzire $6,800 DK/$7,700
One of my favorite plays digging into the lowest price ranges this week is Patton Kizzire. He is a player that seems to contend out of no where, but looking back it’s usually a pretty specific course type. The former Georgia Bulldog loves Bermuda greens and almost every time you see him in contention, that is a common thread. That is the case in his 11th place finish at Houston two weeks back, and his lone TOUR win at the Sony Open.
We of course have that same grass type this week in Sea Island, and Kizzire comes in with some really good form to boot. I’m in on him for a solid value play this week, with a nice high ceiling as a player that makes birdies and has the ability to contend in this field.
