After a great finish to last week’s Travelers Championship and a strong run of big tournaments, the PGA TOUR catches its breath a little bit for the next few weeks with a swing through the Midwest. This week, the pros are headed to Detroit Golf Club for the fifth edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic has been held each year at Detroit Golf Club, a Donald Ross design that has yielded low-scoring tournaments with a wide variety of winners over the past few years. Rickie Fowler returned to the winners’ circle last year with a win in Detroit, and he’ll be back to defend his title this year. Fowler finished with a -24 score for the tournament and won in a three-way playoff over Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa.
While the event is relatively new, the course is the oldest in the regular PGA TOUR rotation. Established in 1899, the Detroit Golf Club has been one of the most birdie-laden tracks in any competition. Long hitters have flourished since the “bomb and gouge” approach pays off here due to a lack of hazards in play off the tee. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach are two key metrics to consider, along with looking for someone who can get hot with the putter and pile up birdies with a strong wedge game and good Par-5 scoring.
After two Signature Events sandwiched around the U.S. Open, most of the big names are not participating this week, which gives us a great chance to get to know some of the other emerging options on the PGA TOUR. Even with no players inside the OWGR top 20, there are still some recognizable names, including Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, Tom Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Min Woo Lee, and defending champ Fowler. There are 154 players in the full field this week, which will be reduced to the top 65 and ties after the second round.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Cameron Young $10,700
At this point in his career, Young has taken on the undesirable tag of “best player on the PGA TOUR without a win.” Despite his inability to seal a win, Young has been playing well lately, highlighted by his 59 last Saturday, which he turned into a top-10 finish at the Travelers.
Of the four players with salaries over $10,000, Young has the lowest ownership projection, and he has the third-highest SimLeverage of players with salaries over $9,000. Young has the fourth-highest ceiling and median projections in the field, along with the fifth-highest Perfect%.
Young proved last week that he could definitely go low with that 59, which he sandwiched with a pair of 66s after a Round 1 72. With a better start this week, he has the potential to contend for a breakthrough win. Young has only missed one cut this season in 16 tournaments while posting five top 10s, including his seventh career runner-up finish, which came at the Valspar. Another of those runner-up finishes came at this event two years ago when he finished a distant second behind Tony Finau.
The best part of Young’s game is typically his driver, so he’s a great fit for this week’s course layout. After last week’s strong showing, Young ranks in the top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Ballstriking over the last six months. He also leads the field in Total Strokes Gained per round at Detroit Golf Club based on that runner-up finish.
Young is one of the favorites this week, but with his slightly lower ownership projection, he offers solid leverage to go with his high ceiling.
Taylor Pendrith $9,600
Pendrith is another nice high-priced play that has strong results on this track and a fairly solid ownership projection. He has the sixth-highest Perfect%, just behind Young, but his ownership projection of under 18% gives him the highest SimLeverage in the entire field.
The 33-year-old Canadian got his first PGA TOUR win at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson early in May and has turned in four top 25s in six tournaments since then. He finished T16 at the U.S. Open and followed that with a T23 last week at TPC River Highlands.
His win at TPC Craig Ranch was also at a “bomb and gouge” style birdie fest, and his game should be a great fit for this week’s course, too. He has also excelled here in the past, finishing tied with Cameron Young for runner-up in 2022 and posting a T14 last year.
Pendrith leads the field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 30 rounds, and he has been very consistent across all the facets of his game. With ownership gravitating to the other high-priced options, Pendrith is a great leverage play this week, and his consistency makes him and Young my favorite high-priced plays to build around.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Keith Mitchell $8,500
Mitchell has the highest ceiling projection of all golfers with salaries under $9,000 this week and actually has the fifth-highest ceiling projection in the entire field. He fits the profile of many winners at this track since the strength of his game is his driver and his streaky putting.
Mitchell hasn’t played the past few weeks since finishing T10 at the RBC Canadian Open. Before his break, Mitchell posted seven top 25s in 11 tournaments. He finished in the top 10 at the Cognizant Classic during that stretch for his other top 10.
Over the last 50 rounds, Mitchell leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach. He also ranks in the top five in Total Strokes Gained. That kind of elite approach game gives him the ability to contend in low-scoring events like this if his putter gets hot.
Despite his high ceiling, Mitchell’s ownership projection is under 15% for this week, which helps him have the fifth-highest SimLeverage in the field. He also matches the third-most Pro Trends in the field behind only Tom Kim and Min Woo Lee, who cost more and are expected to be much more popular.
Davis Thompson $8,300
So much public attention is going to Rickie Fowler, Maverick McNealy, and Aaron Rai, that Mitchell and Thompson have turned into great pivot plays for GPP. I like Fowler, McNealy, and Rai in cash games, but their ownerships are over-inflated compared to their Perfect% in our sims. Especially with Mitchell and Thompson at similar salaries with lower ownership projections.
Thompson ranks just behind Mitchell with the sixth-highest SimLeverage in the entire field. He has the second-highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $9,000 and the third-highest ceiling projection of players in that price range.
Last week, Thompson took the week off since he wasn’t qualified for the Travelers, but he finished T9 at Pinehurst No. 2 and T2 at the Myrtle Beach Classive over the last six weeks. He has logged six top 30s in his last eight events and ranks second in the field in Total Strokes Gained and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds.
Thompson has the length and accuracy off the tee to leave himself short approaches at Detroit Golf Club, and he has made the cut in both of his previous appearances at the Rocket Morgage with a top 25 last season.
The 25-year-old is a strong young contender who appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough, so getting him as a leverage play in the lower $8,000s is a strong strategy this week.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Matt Wallace $7,400
Between $7,000 and $8,000, most of the public is focusing on Adam Svensson, Patrick Rodgers and Taylor Moore. As a result, the ownership projections of those three players have outpaced their Perfect% giving them negative SimLeverage. I understand those plays as a good option for various reasons in cash games, but for GPP; Matt Wallace makes a very attractive pivot play since his ownership projection is about half of those three popular plays.
Wallace has flashed upside with an ability to pile up birdies in bunches, especially on this track. He is 3-for-3 making the cut at Detroit Golf Club with top-12 finishes in 2020 and 2022. This season, Wallace ranks seventh on the PGA TOUR this season in par-5 scoring, and he ranks inside the top 16 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach and Total Strokes Gained over his last 20 rounds.
Wallace has made the cut in each of his last five events, including a top-five finish at TPC Craig Ranch behind Pendrith and a T15 last week on the DP World Tour at the KLM Open. Wallace will be back on the PGA TOUR this week and brings a higher ceiling, median, and floor projection than Svensson, Rodgers or Moore. He has the fourth-highest Perfect% of the players under $8,000 and also has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection is under 5%.
Nicolai Hojgaard $7,300
Hojgaard is another great fit for Detroit Golf Club since he hits it long and straight and can contend in low-scoring events. His ownership projection is slightly higher than Wallace’s, but he still has the fifth-best SimLeverage and the fifth-highest Perfect% of players with salaries in the $7,000s.
The 23-year-old from Denmark has made the cut in five of his last six PGA TOUR events, with a high point of a T16 at the Masters. He made the cut at both the Canadian Open and the U.S. Open before taking last week off. His best finish of the season came back at the Farmers Insurance Open on a track that also demands a lot of length.
While he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR, Hojgaard has already claimed three DP World Tour victories, highlighted by his win at the DP World Championship last fall in a very strong field, where he totaled a score of -21.
He has the tools to succeed at Detroit Golf Club, so it’s not surprising that he finished in the top 25 in his debut here last year. He has the potential to break through for his first PGA TOUR win this week, and he is coming in largely under the radar with ownership projections too low for his upside in our projections.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Thorbjorn Olesen $6,900
Olesen is another player from Denmark who offers a high ceiling and good upside this week, and he comes at a very nice price under $7,000. Don’t confuse him with Michael Thorbjornsen ($8,000), who I highlighted in this post in his pro debut last week. I like both players, but Olesen is the cheaper and stronger play this week.
In his career, the Thunder Bear has racked up 15 professional wins, including eight on the DP World Tour, with the most recent coming in January at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, where he finished with an impressive score of -27 to win by six strokes.
After that win, he shifted over to the PGA TOUR, where he had a few down events but rebounded with five made cuts in his last six tournaments, including a T16 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and a T14 at the Valero Texas Open. Over his last 16 rounds, he ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting and in the top 20 in Total Strokes Gained.
He has the highest SimLeverage and second-highest Perfect% of all players, with salaries under $7,000. He also brings the second-highest median and ceiling projections of the players in that price range.
Mac Meissner $6,400
Meissner got last week off after missing the cut at the U.S. Open, but he’ll be back in action in Detroit, looking to continue his strong rookie season. He has the seventh-highest median and ceiling projection of all players with salaries under $7,000, so getting him all the way down at under $6,500 looks like a good bargain.
The promising 25-year-old has already piled up five top 25s in his 15 events this season, with five made cuts in his last eight events dating back to his T10 at the Valero Texas Open. He also finished in the top five at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where his 66-68 over the weekend helped him surge to his best finish of the season.
Over his last 20 rounds, Meissner ranks in the top 25 in the field in Total Strokes Gained and in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks in the top 10 during that stretch in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and if he can just catch a heater with his putter, he looks ready to take his game to the next level.
Based on his recent form, Meissner is my favorite deep sleeper, and he brings the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players with salaries under $6,500. His ownership projection is well under 3%, so he should bring good leverage and help differentiate your lineups as well.
