In the first installment of this series I wrote about Vince Lombardi and why he was obviously a guaranteed prize pool player. I also admitted to dressing up in something my editor referred to as a douchebag hat.
Jimmy Conway and Ace Rothstein
Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman writes a lot about Star Wars and something called The Lord of The Rings. [Editor’s Note: Don’t forget Battlestar Galactica.] Apparently he is some kind of nerd. I had no idea what a Frodo or the Tower of Amon Sûl was, but that’s what Wikipedia is for. I haven’t watched a Star Wars film since the 1980s, bruh.
I have watched a bunch of Robert De Niro movies though. Good Fellas is my all time favorite. Jimmy Conway was the man. I can only imagine the scene where he chokes Morrie with a telephone cord until his wig falls off is very similar to what Frodos do when they arrive at the Tower of Amon Sûl, but I didn’t read enough of the Wikipedia page to find out.
But, seriously, De Niro still makes great movies every year. What has Han Solo done lately? Other than get killed, crash a plane, and break his pelvis?
Casino was not nearly as good as Good Fellas. In fact, it was quite disappointing, but De Niro’s Ace Rothstein was a good character. In the movie he says this: “In Vegas, everybody’s gotta watch everybody else. Since the players are looking to beat the casino, the dealers are watching the players. The box men are watching the dealers. The floor men are watching the box men. The pit bosses are watching the floor men. The shift bosses are watching the pit bosses. The casino manager is watching the shift bosses. I’m watching the casino manager. And the eye in the sky is watching us all.”
Think of FantasyLabs as the eye in the sky. It watches and knows every NFL player’s points per game, Plus/Minus, Consistency, and even average ownership. All so you, the player, can benefit.
In our Player Models each week you can find our FantasyLabs ownership projections for both the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and FanDuel Sunday Million tournaments. These projections have been incredibly accurate.
In addition, we have historic tournament ownership data available in our Trends tool, which you can utilize to pinpoint historic ownership in exact situations with countless filters.
Over the next few weeks, I’m going to use our Trends tool to examine past ownership data to see if we can uncover any spots that can give us an advantage when building GPP lineups.
With each piece, we’ll look at specific filters to see what hidden nuggets lie in the data. This week: Vegas spreads and running backs.
Vegas Favorites
DraftKings
I broke down Vegas favorites into four ranges according to the spread. Because I’m concentrating on tournament ownership and concerned only with the ownership of players who will help us win, I set the projected ceiling of each FanDuel sample at 15 points and each DraftKings sample at 16.5 points. Since DK has points-per-reception scoring and offers three bonus points for RBs who reach 100 yards rushing or receiving (Hello, Tevin Coleman!), the increased ceiling on DK was a necessary adjustment. These are the results I got for the favorites:
Not surprisingly, the RBs playing in the games with the lowest spreads were owned at the lowest percentage (9.6 percent). When the spread reaches 10.5 points or more, the average ownership for favored RBs increases to 14.6 percent.
Interestingly, it’s actually the RBs favored between four to seven points who are owned at the highest percentage (15.2 percent).
The backs favored in the low-spread games generate the lowest Plus/Minus (+2.09) and Consistency (52.9 percent). Targeting these backs, even at the lowest ownership percentage among favored backs, doesn’t look like a profitable GPP investment.
Importantly, RBs favored by 7.5 to 10 points have been owned less (12.1 percent) than those favored by four to seven points and 10.5 points or more. They also have produced the highest raw points per game (16.95), Plus/Minus (+4.46), and Consistency (67.2 percent) out of every group of RBs in this study. If you’re willing to get slightly chalky with RB selection in your tournament lineups, this is the range of favored RBs you should focus on.
Another important finding: RBs favored by 10.5 points or more have provided a lower average Plus/Minus (+3.44) and fewer points per game (14.87) than the two groups of backs favored between four and 10 points.
Often DFS players (myself included) salivate when seeing a RB who is favored by a massive number. The logical thought is that, the larger the spread, the more carries a RB will get, especially late in the game when the lead is large and the opposing defense is worn down. However, the evidence suggests that fading these heavy favorites in favor of those favored between 7.5 to 10 points is the way to go.
FanDuel
The results on FD are somewhat similar to the results on DK. RBs playing in the lowest-spread games are owned at the lowest percentage (8.8 percent) but also produce the lowest Plus/Minus (+1.58). And, again, you may be able to gain a GPP advantage by fading the backs favored by 10.5 points or more and instead concentrating on those favored between four to 10 points. It’s the backs in this range who provide the highest Plus/Minus and raw points per game, and they do so at a lower ownership percentage.
Vegas Underdogs
DraftKings
Nothing in these results is unexpected. The greater the underdog, the lower the ownership percentage. RBs playing in the low-spread games are owned at the highest percentage (10.4 percent), but they also produce the best Plus/Minus (+3.44) and have yielded the highest average raw points per game (15.47). Notable is the fact that the gigantic underdogs of at least 10.5 points (average ownership of 3.6 percent) have managed to produce a +2.21 Plus/Minus.
The biggest takeaway from the underdog RBs on DK is that you can roster an underdog of four to seven points at a much lower ownership percentage (6.7 percent) than you can roster the lower-spread RB, and you can still achieve a very solid Plus/Minus (+3.20). As an added bonus, the RBs in this spread range also have the highest Consistency.
The underdog of 7.5 to 10 points is also very effective in terms of Plus/Minus (+3.06) compared to ownership (5.1 percent). If you’re attempting to be contrarian by playing underdog RBs, concentrate on backs falling in these two spread ranges.
FanDuel
As you see, the results on FD are incredibly similar, except for the precipitous drop off in Plus/Minus for the heavy underdogs. The RBs in this sample playing as at least 10.5-point underdogs have averaged just 4.82 FD points per game and vomited a -7.56 Plus/Minus.
In general, the lower the spread, the higher the ownership. And, once again, when looking for an advantage in terms of ownership compared to Plus/Minus, you should concentrate on the group of RBs playing as underdogs of four to 10 points.
Never Rat On Your Friends and Keep Your Mouth Shut
The immortal words of Jimmy Conway. And pretty much the only quote from Conway I could remember without the word “f*ck” in it.
And just because I’m sharing this with you doesn’t mean you need to run your mouth all over town. Pretty soon even those weird hobbit things will know our secrets.
– When selecting favored RBs for GPPs, look for those favored by 7.5 to 10 points on DK. They have traditionally provided the biggest return on your investment at a very reasonable ownership percentage among favored backs.
– On FD, think about fading those huge favorites in favor of those favored between four to 10 points.
– If you’re choosing to be contrarian by playing underdog RBs, concentrate on backs who are favored between the four to 10 point range.
Up next, wide receivers.
