Welcome back to the PGA Recent Form Report.
After an exhilarating weekend of U.S. Open golf, the PGA Tour comes back down to earth this week for the Quicken Loans National at Congressional. Before we get to golfers in excellent recent form, let’s run through some housekeeping notes on the event.
First, the last time the Quicken Loans National was at Congressional was 2014, so make sure that you discount course type when researching course history this week. Also, it looks like Driving Accuracy is at a premium this week, but keep in mind that seven of Congressional’s Par 4s stand over 465 yards. Longer hitters will be at an advantage on such holes at any event, regardless of course fit.
Let’s get to the data.
The Recent Form Report is intended to highlight golfers on the PGA Tour who are in excellent recent form. Since recent performance is such a substantial part of the DFS golf equation, we’ll be highlighting golfers using some of the dynamic statistics and tools we have to offer.
Jamie Lovemark’s Hidden Upside
It’s tough coming down from a high. The U.S. Open at Oakmont featured a star-studded field that was not lacking in firepower at any price point. This week, it’s hard to look at pricing and not vomit just a little. Especially when Roberto Castro is $8,600.
When the player pool is weaker, we should put an emphasis on identifying golfers who are mispriced (or undervalued) relative to the field. Luckily enough, there are quite a few for the Quicken Loans National and one name in particular sticks out: Jamie Lovemark ($8,200).
Just two months ago, Lovemark ripped off a string of T6, T18, missed cut, and T2 in four events and looked to be on the precipice of a breakout campaign. He has cooled since but is still playing well coming into Congressional.
Lovemark doesn’t stand out in grandiose fashion this week (besides his mammoth average Driving Distance of more than 300 yards), but his Recent Adjusted Round Score (69.9) is still above average (56th percentile). More importantly, Lovemark is averaging a robust 14.3 Recent Birdies per event (eighth-best in the field) and has reached his salary-based Upside in 52 percent of events this season (sixth-best in the field). Lovemark could easily regain his breakout pace this weekend, given the weaker competition.
Upside, Driving Distance, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Harold Varner III and Discounted Bombers
Regardless of price, Harold Varner III might be in some of the best form coming into Quicken Loans National. He owns four top-25 or better finishes in his last six events and is tied for 11th in the field in Recent Adj Rd Score (69.2). Additionally, Varner has beaten his salary-based expectations by an average of 14.64 points during his hot streak:
On top of his great form, Varner’s immense power (Recent DD of 303 yards) should give him an advantage on Congressional’s deep Par 4s. It’s rare, but Varner also owns sneaky accuracy off of the tee. He has hit the fairway on 63.1 percent of his recent drives, a noteworthy improvement over his Long-Term Driving Accuracy (58 percent). At just $7,100, Varner has the form to make the cut at Congressional and potentially compete for another top-25 finish.
The Bargain Bin
Finally, let’s take a peek at a reoccurring trend that identifies golfers priced below $6,500 with Recent Adj Rd Scores of 69.9 or lower:
Tim Wilkinson ($6,000) is underpriced given his form (T21, T29, T64, T11, T4, T47, missed cut, T61) since late March. He also sports decent course-fit data for Congressional, landing in the 60th percentile or better in both Recent GIR and Drive Accuracy. In the same vein, Bronson Burgoon ($5,600) has played very well in spurts this season and has finished below par in six of his last 10 measured rounds.
There are multiple ways to construct rosters this week, but this field has an inordinate number of golfers priced below $6,000. Wading through all of the cheap players is often noisy, but our powerful Trends tool can help you cut straight through the minutiae.
Good luck!
