NFL Trend of the Week
Using running backs involved in the passing game is a common strategy in the fantasy community. Because of passing efficiency, receiving backs can be strong fantasy assets despite their limited roles.
Given that these backs have the ability to thrive in shootouts and come-from-behind situations, it seems natural to target pass-catching RBs when they are underdogs. But can they also return value as favorites?
Let’s use our Trends tool to find out.
Receiving Filters > Receiving Targets – Month > 4 to 10
For this trend, I’m looking at running backs averaging at least four targets per game during the past month. Even though there is more data available from the 2016 season, focusing on the past month helps account for the recent injuries and changes at the position.
With a DraftKings Plus/Minus of +2.39, the value receiving backs possess is clear, especially on a full points-per-reception site like DK.
Vegas Filters > Favorite / Dog > Dog
Contrary to what was expected, the Plus/Minus drops slightly to +2.29 when the RB’s team is an underdog.
Vegas Filters > Favorite / Dog > Favorite
As Vegas favorites, receiving RBs enjoy an increased Plus/Minus of +2.48, making them perhaps strong contrarian targets in DFS, especially the guys who aren’t also workhorses, such as David Johnson.
Current Matches
Latavius Murray is heading into Week 11 fresh off a bye that came after a three-touchdown performance against the Broncos. Naturally, his salary rose $1,500, but it remains low enough ($5,500) to keep him in the value tier of RBs.
As a surprise to no one, James White, Chris Thompson, and Theo Riddick are a part the group. White faces a cake matchup against the RB-friendly 49ers, but he remains a risky play due to the presence of LeGarrette Blount and the potential return of Dion Lewis. Thompson could be involved in a shootout with Green Bay, but his role in Washington’s offense is small, even with receiving targets. Riddick, on the other hand, is a key part of the Detroit offense when healthy and has seemingly exceeded expectations all year. He heads into the Jacksonville matchup with six Pro Trends and a projected ceiling in the top fifth percentile.
Matt Asiata appears to be fool’s gold in this group, as his recent spike in receiving usage is due to an injured Jerick McKinnon.
Coming off a strong performance against the Bengals, Rashad Jennings should see a workload large enough to help him reach value against the Chicago Bears, who are seven-point underdogs in the contest. For those looking to save at the position, Jennings’ salary is a very palatable $3,600.
Good luck this week!
