What a week! As usual, the Masters delivered a great week of golf, a memorable chase, great memories, and a worthy champion. Less than a week after Jon Rahm donned his first green jacket, the PGA TOUR will be back in action at another big event as the players start their chase for another jacket, the less prestigious plaid jacket awarded to the winner each year at the RBC Heritage.
Over the past few years, the RBC Heritage has been a great tournament in its traditional spot in the schedule right after the Masters, but it has struggled to draw an elite field since many stars take the week off after battling August National. That is not the case this year, though, since the PGA TOUR gave this event a huge boost by declaring it an elevated event and increasing the prize purse to a cool $20 million.
With the change in status, the field this week is much stronger than typical for this event. Newly crowned Masters champion Jon Rahm is playing for just the second time in his career, while Scottie Scheffler will be making his first career appearance at this event. Rory McIlroy was scheduled to join them, but he, Jason Day, and Will Zalatoris (back) withdrew on Monday.
Eight of the top 10 players in the World Golf Rankings will tee it up this week, and 28 of the top 30 in the FexExCup Standings (with Day and Rory the exceptions). Also worth watching is Min Woo Lee in his pursuit of special temporary membership on the PGA TOUR, while Akshay Bhatia will be playing on a sponsors exemption after accepting that membership status earlier this season.
This full-field event will be back to the normal cut percentages and rules after the Masters’ unique cut sweat last Saturday as player finished up their rain-delayed Round 2.
The players will be taking on a well-known Pete Dye/Jack Nicklaus design at Harbour Town Golf Links which has hosted this event dating back to the 1960s. The narrow fairways and tiny greens will be a unique test, and you can learn more about what skillset plays best at this venue in the full stats preview from Matt Vincenzi.
In this post, we try to focus on players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who most fantasy players won’t be watching as closely.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. The biggest example this week is the DraftKings $1M Fantasy Golf Millionaire, which pays out $250K to the winner. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Collin Morikawa $10,000
Morikawa is in 18% of optimal lineups in our sims, which is the sixth-most of any player in the field.
His floor is a little low since his putter can run cold at times, but for GPP lineups this week, he brings enough upside to outweigh that downside. He’s not the safest pick in this price range, but the potential for a win is definitely there.
Morikawa hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since The Open Championship in 2021. He has been playing much better this season, with nine made cuts in 11 events and four top 10s. He finished T13 at THE PLAYERS and T10 at the Masters in his two most recent stroke-play events against elite fields.
The course should be very well-suited for Morikawa’s profile as one of the top shot-makers in the game. His creative approach and exceptional iron play should fit the Dye design and allow him to do most of his work before reaching the putting surface. In each of his three past appearances at the RBC Heritage, he has made the cut. In 2021, he played in the final group with Stewart Cink but faded with a Final Round 72 to finish T7. He has a scoring average of 69 over his 12 rounds at Harbour Town and has gained 7.6 and 7.1 strokes, respectively, on approach in his past two tournaments on this track.
With Morikawa, the question is always if his short game and putting can be just good enough to get him to the top of the leaderboard, but it has been showing signs of improvement this season.
Getting him at this reasonable ownership and salary makes him a strong GPP play this week.
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Cameron Young $9,600
Cam Young is priced over well-established players like Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa and Justin Thomas, who are all pulling plenty of ownership their way.
In his past 10 events, Young has exceeded salary-based expectations seven times with an average Plus/Minus of +10.99 DraftKings points. He finished in the top 20 in four of the last five events with elite fields and made a run to the finals of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play bracket before losing to Sam Burns. Young followed that up with a solid week at Augusta, finishing T7 after a 68 in the final round.
Young hasn’t missed a cut since the Genesis Scottish Open last July and has six top 25s in his 10 tournaments this season. That doesn’t even count his two top 10s in unofficial events in December.
While the 25-year-old doesn’t have a long track record anywhere yet, he has had success at Harbour Town. Last season in his debut, he opened with a 63 to take the first-round lead and finished tied for third, just one shot out of the playoff between Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth. Young’s form and history would make him a good play at any ownership, but the fact that he’s getting overlooked makes him an even stronger option for GPPs.
It feels like a breakthrough win for Young is inevitable, and this week could be a great spot for him to hoist his first PGA TOUR trophy.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Sam Burns $8,700
Burns is another player getting passed over due to the other options priced around him that could end up helping you get success at low ownership levels. There are nine players priced over $8K and under $9K, and Burns is the only one in that bracket that brings a positive SimLeverage. He actually brings a top 10 SimLeverage in the whole field since his ownership projection is under 9%, while everyone else in that price range is projected for at least 13%, with seven coming in over 18%–meaning they have more than twice the projected ownership of Burns.
Last week, Burns made the cut and finished T29 at Augusta. He did struggle with a 78 in Round 3 but bounced back with a closing 72. He exceeded salary-based expectations for the sixth time in his past eight stroke-play events. He also emerged victorious from the only Match Play event of the season after finishing T6 in his title defense at the Valspar.
Burns seems to have found his groove once again, and he does have success at this event. Burns finished T9 in 2019 and also made the cut in his most recent trip in 2021. His game is a unique one in that he relies on driving and putter to overcome his irons. As a result, those focused too much on SG: Approach can often overlook Burns. While I’m a big believer in SG: Approach (see Morikawa above), Burns has shown he can make his style and game work in elite fields and on this course.
At his projected ownership, Burns is a great leverage spot from a range with a ton of high ownership expected.
Sahith Theegala $8,000
Theegala came up with one of the most memorable shots of Sunday at Augusta, chipping in from behind the green on No. 16, much like Tiger in 2005. It wasn’t just a one-shot week for Theegala, though, who finished T9 in his Masters debut. Like Young, Theegala is looking for a breakthrough win on the PGA TOUR, although he did partner with Tom Hoge to claim the victory at the QBE Shootout in an unofficial event in December.
The 25-year-old has made the cut in 14 of his 15 tournaments and has posted eight top 25s, including last week’s run at Augusta. He played this event last season as well, making the cut but finishing only T70 after a final round 79 that dropped him down the leaderboard. He was actually two-under par coming into that final round, so there was definitely potential for a much better result.
Theegala has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 official stroke-play events dating back to last fall. He should be able to exceed expectations again and could even challenge for a win here if he can build on the momentum of his strong Augusta debut.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Sam Ryder $7,200
Ryder doesn’t have a great track record at Harbour Town, with two missed cuts in three appearances, but he comes in with excellent recent form and projected ownership under 3%.
Before taking last week off because he did not qualify for the Masters, Ryder had been on an impressive run with five top 20s and six made cuts in his seven previous events. He finished tied for third at the Valero Texas Open with Matt Kuchar just two strokes behind winner Corey Conners. While that was his best finish of the season, he also had a T4 at the Famers Insurance Open on the West Coast swing and top 20s at the Valspar and the Genesis Invitational as well.
Based on that recent form, Ryder looks like he could be a great place to get a high finisher at low ownership. With so many players potentially dragging after a strenuous week at Augusta, there could be an advantage to being fresh and ready to roll at Harbour Town for Ryder and others who didn’t play last week.
Cameron Davis $7,100
Davis also brings a lot of upside for a play at this price. Unlike Ryder, though, his is not based on recent form. Davis has missed the cut in six of his past seven events, which is why the public is pretty much passing on him this week.
However, Davis does have some factors in his favor this week. He has made the cut and finished in the top 25 in each of his two trips to Harbour Town, and he finished T3 last year alongside Cameron Young. If he’s healthy, Davis has shown he’s a solid fit for this course and that he can contend here.
The question with Davis is his health. He battled a lingering illness early in the season, which limited his practice time and could have contributed to his disappointing results.
He looked to be turning the corner and returning to form at THE PLAYERS on another Dye-designed track, where he finished tied for sixth and outperformed salary-based expectations by almost 40 DraftKings points. That result made him a pretty popular play at the Valero Texas Open, but he missed the cut at TPC San Antonio. He actually looked great in the second round with a 66, but he couldn’t undo an ugly 80 from Thursday, proving again that you can’t win a tournament in Round 1, but you can definitely lose it.
Now that Davis is feeling better, hopefully, he was able to tune up his game and improve his consistency in his week off last week. If he can be at his best, he should be able to produce a good week in Harbour Town, and getting him at low ownership and this affordable salary could power your lineup GPP to success.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Brandon Wu $6,900
Most of the players under $7K come with low enough ownership to be contrarian plays, so we can focus more on other factors like course fit, form, and upside. Wu goes three-for-three in those categories while bringing an ownership percentage projected to be under 1.5%.
Wu is making his debut at this tournament, but he has done well on similar courses. He seems to excel at shorter, technical tracks like this. For example, he posted top 20s at both THE PLAYERS and the Honda Classic earlier this spring. While he didn’t go low at the Valspar or the Valero, he did finish second at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, along with top-10 finishes at the Scottish Open, Mexico Open, Puerto Rico Open, and Wyndham Championship last season.
Of all the players under $7K, Wu offers the sixth-highest Leverage and also checks in with positive SimLeverage.
Tyler Duncan $6,800
Another player who performs well on shorter tracks is Tyler Duncan, who also comes in with nice form. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his six most recent events, with only a missed cut at the Valspar.
He finished third at both the Corales Puntacana Championship and the Honda Classic over the past couple of months and also made the cut at THE PLAYERS and The Genesis Invitational against stronger fields.
He comes to Harbour Town with good momentum and has played well at this event, with top 30s in two of the past three years and a strong T12 last year. Duncan showed up in multiple categories in the course stats earlier this week, and at this price, he has good upside for GPPs.
With so many elite players in the field, getting players who make the cut in the low-$7K and high-$6K range is the way to include multiple stars in your roster builds. I think Wu and Duncan both fit the profile and should be set up for a solid week.
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