Welcome back to normal PGA Tour events. The Masters was awesome, but we have to move on. This week we head to South Carolina where players will tee it up at Harbour Town Golf Links, a links-style course designed by Pete Dye. As a Par 71, Harbour Town plays around 7,100 yards, which is relatively short for the PGA Tour. This course comes with narrow fairways and overhanging tree limbs that can block a player from having a solid line to the green even when in the fairway. Also, players will be playing their approach shots onto small greens that are guarded by large bunkers or hazards.
These things are going to place an emphasis on accuracy. Driving accuracy and Greens in Regulation (GIR) will be two statistics that I will be focusing on this week, as well as looking for players with an overall solid game. That won’t be easy with a field lacking some power, but I think taking on some variance will make for an interesting weekend in some of the GPPs on DraftKings.
Wasting no more time, we can take a look at who has finished in the top 25 at the RBC Heritage over the past five years.
$12,500 – $9,000
The big name in this price range (and the entire tournament) is Jason Day ($12,500). Day is the favorite to win the tournament and will be one of the highest-owned players in the field. He stands out as a star in a field that is lacking star power. Harbour Town Golf Links may not be set up for the bombers, but that does not mean that a bomber is unable to succeed there. Although not terribly accurate off of the tee with a 55.4% long-term driving accuracy, he has a long-term GIR of 69.3%. I will have some exposure to Day, but may take an underweight position, as his ownership could outweigh his value at this course.
Paul Casey ($10,800) has 12 Pro Trends, which is good for the second highest behind only Jason Day. After making adjustments to my model for this week, Casey ended up the highest-rated player in my model. This is most likely due to his elite Long-Term GIR of 71.8%. Casey has made five straight cuts, including a fourth-place finish at last week’s Masters. There is chance of high winds this week, and it is natural to think that Casey proved his capability of managing the tough conditions with his finish at Augusta. I believe that to be true, but it is worth noting that his finish was in large part to shooting a 67 on Sunday, when there was much less wind.
Another player with a good showing at the Masters is Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500). Fitzpatrick finished seventh last week after hitting 75% of his greens in regulation at Augusta. Fitzpatrick is not very long off of the tee with a long-term driving distance of only 284.7 yards, which makes his play last week even more impressive. His accuracy alone warrants some tournament exposure.
Kevin Kisner ($9,700) is worth mentioning, as his long-term numbers set up very well for this tournament. My concerns with Kisner come when comparing his long-term stats to his recent form. He has seen a decrease in GIR, driving distance, putts per round, and scrambling percentage.
Matt Kuchar ($10,300) has great course history, but doesn’t excel in any one specific statistical category. A decision to roster Kuchar will almost certainly come down to where I believe his ownership will be. I would much rather pay up for Casey, but if salary was an issue, ownership may warrant taking a closer look at both Kisner and Zach Johnson ($10,000), who are slightly cheaper.
$8,900 – $7,500
When looking at course history, the first golfer to pop out at this price range is Luke Donald ($8,300). He has made the cut each of the past seven years, with six top-25 finishes and five top-3 finishes. Going against Donald is a poor long-term driving accuracy of only of only 58%, which has dropped even lower to 51.7% when looking at recent form. He is coming off a 26th finish at the Puerto Rico Open, where he excelled at hitting greens. I like Donald to make the cut this week, but his ownership is expected to be much higher than I would like and I think he is worth some fade consideration.
Graham DeLaet ($8,200) and Jamie Lovemark ($7,800) are both rating highly in my model this week. I like Lovemark a bit more, as it is difficult to put any faith in DeLaet’s putter and I am more willing to take my chances at a different price point this week. Lovemark is coming into the tournament with a recent-form driving accuracy of 65.1% – a significant increase from his long-term average of 55.5%. With Bryson DeChambeau ($8,000) expected to absorb most of the ownership at this price point, Lovemark could make for a solid GPP play this weekend.
As far as DeChambeau goes, I don’t plan on having much of him. If I did, it would not be at the lower stakes where he is expected to come along with heavy ownership. That may not be the case at the higher stakes, but I think having only limited exposure or entirely fading him is completely warranted this week.
$7,400 – $6,000
Sean O’Hair ($7,200) has a recent driving accuracy of 72.8%. That is a large increase from his long-term number of 63.2%, but what is concerning is that his bump in accuracy off the tee has not increased his poor ability to hit greens. Also, his elite long-term PPR has seen a decrease of late. I like O’Hair because of his accuracy off the tee, but his struggles after reaching the fairway limit my desired exposure.
One of my favorite plays at this price is Brendan Steele ($7,300). Steele had made six consecutive cuts before missing the cut at the Houston Open. His long-term form has him hitting 69.7% of his greens in regulation. While not excelling in any one statistic, his overall long-term form is solid. His recent form has seen slight increases in some of the important categories this week and his recent missed cut could cause his ownership to be depressed, increasing his value in tournaments.
Another player worth noting is Ben Martin ($7,200), who has great recent form, which is captured in a top-15 Recent Adjusted Round ranking. If you were looking to drop near the bottom end of this pricing spectrum, David Hearn ($6,000) is an interesting option. As one of the shorter players off the tee in this field, he has respectable numbers in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation. His recent form has dipped slightly, but remains relatively consistent across the board.
$5,900 – $6,000
I plan to stay away from this area in most lineups and go with a more balanced approach this week. However, I will be dipping down here for at least a few lineups. When I do, one player that I will be looking at is Justin Hicks ($5,600). Hicks made the cut in all three of his last PGA Tour events, posting a better final score in each one. Most recently, he finished 57th at the Shell Houston Open. He has shown an ability to go low, posting a first-round 62 at the Valspar Championship. Our recent-form statistics have him hitting 68.8% of his greens with a driving accuracy of 71.2%. He ranks middle of the pack in Recent Adjusted Round Score and could be a solid punt play if he can avoid the high round on Thursday and Friday.
Alright, there we have it. I suggest taking a close look at the weather on Wednesday night. There is a strong chance of high winds throughout the weekend and a slight chance of rain. The video I am going to leave you with isn’t the greatest shot by PGA Tour standards, but the situation adds to it. Let me set the scene: it was Round Four of the RBC Heritage and Matt Kuchar had just three-putted for bogey on the 17th and was now tied with Luke Donald for the lead. We pick it up midway through the final hole.
