After stopping in Texas for last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, the PGA TOUR heads north this week for the RBC Canadian Open. Last year, a Canadian won his national open for the first time since 1954, as Nick Taylor bested Tommy Fleetwood in a dramatic playoff, highlighted by a memorable 72-foot putt to win the championship.
Both Taylor and Fleetwood are teeing it up this week, along with a very strong international contingent including Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Adam Scott, Tom Kim, and Nicolai Hojgaard. RBC ambassadors Sahith Theegala, Cameron Young, and Sam Burns are also in the field, which includes seven of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. In all, 156 players will participate in this full-field event, with the cut after Round 2 reducing the field to the top 65 and ties.
Like other national opens, the Canadian Open uses a rotation of courses, and this year, it returns to Hamilton Golf & Country Club. Hamilton most recently hosted the 2019 RBC Canadian Open, which Rory won by seven strokes over Lowry and Webb Simpson. Since then, the course has undergone a major renovation, earning 2022 Golf Digest Best Renovation of the Year.
Following its facelift, the course plays as a par 70 at around only 7,084 yards. What it lacks in length it makes up for in routing, narrow fairways, and complex greens. There are only two par 5s in play, and the par 3s are expected to be especially difficult. For more on the course, including a full-course flyover, check out this tweet from BetSperts’ Ron Klos.
This week is also the last chance for the players to qualify for the Memorial Tournament, which is the PGA TOUR’s signature event next week leading up to the U.S. Open.
In this post each week
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Tommy Fleetwood $10,300
In our ceiling, median, and floor projections, Rory McIlroy, Fleetwood, and Sahith Theegala rank 1-2-3. They also rank as the top three in Perfect%, Vegas odds, and ownership projection. Rory has the highest marks across the board but also has an ownership projection of over 40%. While he’s a great play and brings one of the highest Perfect% I can remember, Fleetwood saves almost $2,000 in salary and comes with more leverage.
Fleetwood has the third-highest ownership projection of the week, so he will be a little chalky, but he brings even more upside with the second-highest projections and the second-highest SimLeverage on the slate. He has the kind of game that can fit almost any course and has had success in Canada. He lost in last year’s playoff and will be back trying to finish the job and claim his first PGA TOUR win this week.
As he tees it up at Hamilton, he brings strong form after finishing T26 at the PGA Championship, which was his fourth top 30 in his last five events, including top 10s at The Masters and the RBC Heritage. He has made the cut in 10 of his 11 events in 2024 and won on the DP World Tour back in January when he outdueled Rory down the stretch at the Dubai Invitational for his seventh career win on the DP World Tour.
Over the last 24 rounds, Fleetwood ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained, 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and sixth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. His accuracy and precision should fit the demands of the re-made Hamilton, making him a strong pivot from Rory this week. He can even be paired with Rory or Theegala if you’re okay with going ultra-cheap in the rest of your roster.
Maverick McNealy $9,200
McNealy has the lowest ownership projection of the 10 players with salaries of at least $9,000, but he has been surging and comes to this tournament offering plenty of momentum and leverage.
This season, McNealy is playing on a medical exemption but has had no trouble climbing the FedExCup point race. The 28-year-old is up to 61st after making the cut in each of his last 11 individual events and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those tournaments. He racked up five top 25s, highlighted by top 10s in strong events at the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship.
Statistically, McNealy has been strong all season off the tee and on and around the green while struggling a little bit with his approach game. However, he has flipped the switch in that area lately, gaining over 1.5 strokes on approach in three of his last four events. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks in the top 10 in this field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Last week, he shot the lowest Final Round to finish the Charles Schwab Challenge at T17, his second straight top 25 after finishing T23 the week before at the PGA Championship. His Sunday round was very impressive, and his long-term form shows that he’s back on track after his shoulder injury last year.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Erik Van Rooyen $8,200
Van Rooyen had a great fall that culminated in his second PGA TOUR career win in his final event of 2023. In 2024, he has continued his strong play with seven top 25s in 14 events. He missed back-to-back cuts in Florida but made the cut at the Masters, the RBC Heritage and the PGA Championship while adding a top-five finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic as well.
The 38-year-old South African has the fourth-highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $9,000 and the third-highest SimLeverage since his ownership projection is under 10%. No player between $8,000 and $9,000 has a lower ownership projection than EVR.
Van Rooyen ranks in the top 20 in the field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 12 rounds and ranks in the top 20 on the PGA TOUR this season in greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Putting, and converting GIR into par breakers. If this tournament turns into a shootout, he should be able to go low. Van Rooyen is also one of the 35 players in the field who played at this track in 2019. He started with a scorching 64 on his way to T20 back then, and his overall game and career have come a long way since.
Daniel Berger $7,700
After waiting and watching for a while, I’m ready–it’s BERGER TIME!
Berger missed over a year and a half with back issues and has been working his way back into form in 12 events this year. It hasn’t been a fast or smooth track back, but he has looked much better lately, making the cut in five of his last six tournaments, highlighted by a top 15 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Berger was one of the top golfers in the world prior to his injury, and he found his success on similar courses and layouts to what he’ll see this week and even finished T35 in 2019 at this course. His driving has been good most of the season, and his approach game has him ranked in the top 20 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 16 rounds.
If his short game comes around, his ceiling is definitely high enough to make him a nice value at this salary under $8,000. His ownership projection is just under 10%, and his SimLeverage is very close to even. For more conservative builds, it may be best to wait another week or two, but I’m ok being a week early in GPPs to make sure I catch him at his optimum value and leverage.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Ryan Fox $7,300
Fox has the third-highest SimLeverage of all players with salaries under $8,000 and the third-highest Perfect% of the players with salaries under $7,500. The 37-year-old from New Zealand struggled early on this season, at one point missing the cut in four of six events, but the steady veteran has been heating up lately.
He finished fourth while playing with Garrick Higgo at the Zurich Classic and followed that with an individual top five at Myrtle Beach two weeks later. Since then, he made the cut at the PGA Championship and sat T7 at the Charles Schwab Challenge after two rounds before fading to a T32 after a rough weekend. Over the last 16 rounds, he ranks eighth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and his efficiency with his driver has placed him in the top 25 in Total Strokes Gained over that stretch.
Fox’s ownership projection is under 5%, but his success on international, Euro-style layouts should translate well to this track. In his career, he has 17 professional wins, including four on the DP World Tour with the most recent coming last September at the BMW PGA Championship.
Seamus Power $7,200
Power has had his ups and downs this year but is a great course fit for Hamilton and comes in with some nice momentum after exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 events, with top 20s at The Heritage and the Wells Fargo Championship in his last three appearances.
In both the elite field at Quail Hollow and Harbour Town, Power ranked inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he ranks ninth in that stat in this field over his last 20 rounds. Somewhat ironically given his surname, Power’s best career results have come on positional tracks that emphasize accuracy over distance.
He should be able to contend if his putter cooperates since the rest of his game looks to be in good shape, and getting him with an ownership projection under 4% is pleasantly surprising. He’s more boom-or-bust than Fox or some of the other plays in this price range, but his ceiling makes the Irishman an awesome leverage option.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Mac Meissner $6,500
While his ownership projection is slightly higher than I’d like for a flier play, it’s hard to overlook his recent form and upside at such a bargain salary. His ownership projection is still under 5%, though, so it’s not too much chalk to eat to roll with Mac.
The 25-year-old Korn Ferry Tour grad had a slow start to the season but has been excellent, with four top 25s in his last six starts, including a top 10 at the Valero Texas Open and a top five last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge when he sprinted to the finish with a 66-68 over the weekend. Over his last 20 rounds, he ranks seventh in this field in Total Strokes Gained, 12th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 16th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
The rookie is definitely a wild card, but his great form makes him a hot ticket to ride at only $6,500.
Dylan Wu $6,200
If you’re going with multiple players from the top tier in a lineup, you may just be shopping for bargain players who consistently make cuts. Wu is one of my regular go-to options in that scenario and should be a good sleeper play at barely over $6,000 this week. He should be comfortable north of the border since he rose through the ranks as part of PGA TOUR Canada.
He’s coming off a missed cut last week at Colonial but prior to that had made the cut in six straight tournaments dating back to THE PLAYERS Championship. He finished in the top 30 in four of those six weeks with a T16 at the Myrtle Beach Classic in his most recent event before missing the cut last week.
Wu can sometimes struggle off the tee, but he has been sharp with his approach play lately. Over his last 16 rounds, he ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. If he can avoid too much trouble off the tee, Wu can be a great way to balance your lineup, get some leverage, and still have a high ceiling. He has excellent SimLeverage this week with his ownership projection at barely over 1%.
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