The PGA TOUR sandwiched the RBC Canadian Open between last week’s elevated event in Ohio and next week’s U.S. Open, which could have resulted in a watered-down field. However, with the continued rise of Canadian golfers, some important players were obligated to play due to a sponsorship from RBC, and the prestige of the event itself was enough to still draw a very strong field of players north of the border for this week’s tournament.
Last year, the RBC Canadian Open returned following a two-year hiatus. Due to border issues with players traveling to Canada and back, the event was canceled in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, it was held at St. George’s Golf and Country Club, where Rory McIlroy emerged as the winner, holding off Tony Finau and Justin Thomas by shooting an eight-under on Sunday.
Sam Burns and Justin Rose rounded out a star-studded top five just ahead of Corey Conners, who won the Rivermead Cup, which is awarded to the top Canadian in the field. A Canadian hasn’t actually won this event since Pat Fletcher in 1954, and no Canadian-born golfer has won it since Karl Keffer in 1914. Expect to hear those dates thrown around a lot coming down the stretch on Sunday if any of this year’s 20 Canadians in the field are in contention.
The course they’ll all be playing is a new one to the PGA TOUR, although the Oakdale Golf and Country Club has been in existence since 1926. The plan is for this event to return to this track in a few years to celebrate the centennial of the course in 2026. To learn more about the course and what skillset to target just outside Toronto, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
In addition to his win last year, Rory won this event in 2019, so he’s looking to win the tournament for the third straight time spanning the COVID hiatus. He’s the top-ranked golfer in the field and is joined by Burns, Connors, Rose, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry to give the event 10 golfers inside the top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings. At the other end of the field, there are some interesting storylines to monitor, with Adrian Meronk trying to convert his success in Europe to the PGA TOUR, Michael Block continuing his Cinderella story, and Ludvig Aberg making his first start after earning his membership via PGA TOUR University.
In this weekly post, we focus on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who many fantasy players may overlook or pass by due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. This week the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $700K Pitch + Putt that awards $200K to the top finisher. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Sam Burns $10,500
There are 11 golfers priced over $9K on this slate, and many come with hefty projected ownerships. Rory McIlroy obviously leads the way, but Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Cameron Young, and Tommy Fleetwood check in not far behind with over 20% projected ownership. Those plays are fine and definitely come with upside, but you’ll have to find other ways to differentiate your lineup
If you are looking for an under-owned option near the top of the salary range, Burns is worth considering since he’s only projected for under 14% ownership. His low ownership contributes to him having the second-highest SimLeverage in the entire field.
Burns also ranks in the top five in the field in Perfect%, and only Rory and Hatton have better odds than him to win.
It’s a little surprising to see Burns with such low ownership projection, given his recent form. He won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Championship at the end of March and has posted four top 20s since then at the RBC Heritage, the Charles Schwab Challenge, the Zurich Classic, and last week’s Memorial Tournament.
Burns goes about attacking courses a little bit differently than many of the top players, gaining most of his strokes off the tee. He can sometimes struggle at more technical, difficult tracks in majors, but he has proven he can go low in a hurry. If this week’s event turns into a low-scoring birdie-fest, he should be set up for success since he ranks third in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 24 rounds.
The LSU alum has already won five times on the PGA TOUR and finished fourth at this event last season. Getting so much win equity at lower ownership makes him the contrarian play to consider for GPP at the top of the salary structure.
Matt Fitzpatrick $9,900
Fitzpatrick also has an ownership projection under 20% but comes with 23% Perfect%, which is the third-highest of all golfers in the tournament. His lower ownership projection also gives him the sixth-most SimLeverage in the field.
He actually has the same odds to win as Burns, according to Vegas, behind only Rory and Hatton. He is a little less risky, though, according to Vegas, who gives him slightly better odds than Burns to finish in the top 10.
Fitzpatrick is getting ready for his title defense at the U.S. Open next week, and he comes in with great form after starting slowly this spring, when he was battling a neck injury. He placed in the top 10 at the Masters and then won at the RBC Heritage the following week. Last week at the Memorial, he opened with a four-over 76 but then locked in and fired three strong rounds to finish in the top 10. With an even-par opening round, he would have been right in the mix.
However this course ends up playing this week, Fitzpatrick’s versatile all-around game should show well. He is one of the best scramblers on the PGA TOUR and ranks highly in almost every major Strokes Gained metric as well.
His results this season have been a little boom-or-bust due to his injury and some rough rounds, but he makes a lot of sense in GPP at this ownership, given his win equity, which is very similar to Burns’. Starting with the two of them as two studs is a great way to build a lineup that has plenty of differentiation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Adrian Meronk $8,600
There are only eight players priced between $8K and $9K, which partially explains the ownership concentrations at the top of the salary structure and also leads to high projected ownerships in this price range.
Of the group, Meronk stands out in our sims with the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field, sandwiched between Fitzpatrick and Burns behind only Hatton and Rory. His elevated Perfect% also helps him bring the highest SimLeverage in the field, just edging out Burns for the top spot in the tournament.
Meronk also matches six Pro Trends, which is tied for the third-most Pro Trends in the field, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus, indicating he should out-produce salary-based expectations.
The 29-year-old from Poland needs a T15 or better to earn Special Temporary Membership on the PGA TOUR and should qualify for the status eventually, given how outstanding his results have been this year. In his PGA TOUR events, his best finish has been a T14 at The Honda Classic, but he also made the cut at the PGA Championship last month and finished T40.
His best results have come in Europe, where he won the Italian Open at the beginning of May and posted a top five at the KLM Open two weeks ago in the Netherlands. He is looking to become the first player from Poland to claim a PGA TOUR win after winning the Irish Open and the ISPS HANDA Australian Open within the last year.
Meronk is projected for about 15% ownership, so he isn’t totally a dark horse. In fact, he has the highest ownership projection of the players in this price bracket. However, getting so much international success on a variety of courses should be a move that pays off as we get our first look at Oakdale.
He’s a very strong midrange play from the options available.
Michel Kim $8,000
Kim is projected for just under 10% ownership at the low end of this price range, and he makes a strong pivot play when compared to the uncertain options in this price range.
Since the start of March, Kim has been fairly consistent, making the cut in seven of his eight most recent events with top 10s at the Puerto Rico Open, the Wells Fargo Championship, and most recently at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those seven made cuts with an average Plus/Minus of 18.04 DraftKings points. His recent form shows that his struggles from the past few seasons are behind him
Kim’s only career win on the PGA TOUR came back in 2018 at the John Deere Classic. TPC Deere Run is a shorter course that demands accuracy but allows for low scores, and that is the template many people are expecting this week at Oakdale as well. If this week’s tournament turns into a birdie fest and Kim stays in form, he could post another top 10 and possibly even challenge for his second PGA TOUR win.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Carson Young $7,100
With fewer players in the upper ranges, ownership is pretty heavy, but conversely, there are a ton of options under $8K that help spread out ownership and offer lower projected ownership. Of the 136 players under $8K, the most popular plays are projected to be Mark Hubbard and Eric Cole, who both make lots of sense in cash lineups but are a little chalky for GPP play.
Young is projected for lower ownership, under 10%, and has been on a great run lately, especially in low-scoring events. He has finished in the top 25 in four of his last five tournaments, dating back to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. He didn’t play in the PGA Championship but sandwiched that major with back-to-back top 25s in Texas in his two most recent events. In the midst of those strong finishes on the PGA TOUR, he also competed in U.S. Open qualifying and crushed the field in Dallas with a 63-62 to finish five shots clear of the field and shoot a course record at Northwood Club in Dallas.
He has proven throughout his rookie season that he can excel in low-scoring conditions, and getting him at barely over $7K is too good a deal to pass up, even if he is slightly chalky this week.
Young matches four Pro Trends this week, and only three players priced under $8K match more than that.
C.T. Pan $7,100
I’m double-dipping at $7,100 this week since I like Pan’s projections as well. He hasn’t had nearly the run of form that Young brings, but he has had a tendency to pop and produce at events like this in the past.
Pan has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in the entire field. He’s only projected for a 9% ownership despite the fact that he brings the second-highest ceiling projection and the second-highest median projection of all the players under $8K.
Pan has only played three tournaments this year after missing time with a wrist injury. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship but looked excellent at the AT&T Byron Nelson, where he shot a sizzling 62 on Sunday to finish fourth. He hasn’t played in the past few weeks since then but hopefully has finished knocking the rust off and is ready to roll this week.
In 2017 at the RBC Canadian Open, Pan finished T14 in his only previous appearance at this event, and he should be comfortable with the course given his career success in Canada. He climbed onto the PGA TOUR by playing in Canada, winning The Players Cup back in 2015 for his first professional victory and adding another win at the Cape Breton Celtic Classic later that fall before earning his card for the Web.com Tour and then the PGA TOUR.
There is increased risk playing Pan so soon after missing so much time due to injury, but I love his upside at this salary and think he’s a great GPP option given his ceiling.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Grayson Murray ($6,900)
Murray hasn’t fared well on the PGA TOUR this season, making just one cut in six individual tournaments with a T15 at the Puerto Rico Open. He did also play the weekend at the Zurich Classic, where he finished 33rd playing alongside Wesley Bryan. Murray has a very low floor, but he also has a sneaky upside if you consider his recent form from the Korn Ferry Tour.
Murray won the AdventHealth Championship in Kansas City with a -19 at Blue Hills Country Club. He followed that up with a T3 last week at the Rex Hospital Open in Raleigh. He ends up getting into this event as an alternate through his past champion status due to his win at the Barbasol Championship back in 2017, but his game has shown enough recent signs of life to make him a flier play worth considering.
With all his recent missed cuts on the PGA TOUR, he comes in with projected ownership of just 1.5%, so he’s a contrarian play that does come with some home run potential if he can translate his KFT success to this track in Toronto.
Peter Kuest $6,100
If you’re looking for an ultra-cheap flier with upside, check out Kuest, whose salary is barely over the minimum but still brings good momentum to this event.
Kuest was one of three Monday qualifiers, shooting a six-under to earn his way into the field with the best score in qualifying. This will be his third PGA TOUR event of the year after posting a T14 with a 67-63 over the weekend at the AT&T Byron Nelson a few weeks ago.
Our sims like Kuest a lot, giving him the third-best Perfect% of all players under $7K. He also matches six Pro Trends based on his great recent form at the Nelson. With an ownership projection of under 1%, he also brings this second-highest SimLeverage of players under $7K.
Kuest is a little bit of a punt play and gives you plenty of room to stuff stars in your lineup. If this week plays out where having a player near the minimum is necessary to own the top of the leaderboard, Kuest is the option that comes with the most momentum and upside. If he even makes the cut, he’ll be an absolute steal at this salary.
If you don’t want to go quite so bold as to spend all the way down to Kuest, some other cheap plays that I like this week are Erik Van Rooyen ($6,800), James Hahn ($6,800), and Ryan Gerard ($6,600).
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