Here’s the breakdown for the Week 1 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears on Sunday, Sept. 9 at 8: 20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Good Matchups & Values
- Even with the Bears’ defense improving with the addition of Khalil Mack, Aaron Rodgers has the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
- Randall Cobb averaged 8.0 targets and 5.5 receptions per game when Rodgers played last season. Chicago’s defense ranked 29th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average on passes to the middle last season, and 29th vs. other, i.e. slot receivers.
- With Williams as the lead back, Ty Montgomery will likely return to something akin to his 2016 role, where he averaged 5.92 rushes and 4.31 targets per game.
- The Packers ranked 29th in DVOA vs. running backs last season. Tarik Cohen wasn’t used much in the teams’ second meeting, but caught four passes in the first.
Fade Candidates
- Despite struggling over the middle, Chicago was able to limit tight ends to 6.2 yards per target and ranked 11th in DVOA vs. tight ends. Jimmy Graham has the third-lowest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
- The Packers were a run funnel defense last season, ranking eighth in DVOA vs. the run and 27th vs. the pass. Heading into 2018, Pro Football Focus rated Green Bay as the No. 1 run defense, but its secondary is No. 27. Last season, they held Jordan Howard to lines of 18-53-1 and 15-54 (3.24 yards per carry).
- Jamaal Williams averaged 17.8 carries and 3.75 targets per game in the last eight games of the season, but only topped 4.0 yards per carry once over that span. The Bears were ranked ninth in run defense by PFF before acquiring Mack, whom they rated as a top-three run defender last season. If Williams loses out on those targets to Montgomery, he’s in danger of becoming touchdown-dependent.
Roster Construction Notes
- Since 2014, the Plus/Minus of Green Bay’s quarterback has been more strongly correlated with the opposing QB1 than any player on his own team.
- In a small sample last season, Rodgers had extremely high correlations to most of the opposition’s offense: WR1 (.52), TE1 (.42), RB1 (.36), QB (.28).
Strategy & Leverage
Rodgers is the obvious top choice for the Captain/MVP slot. Our models projected his ceiling more than eights points above any other player on the slate. Especially given the correlation between Rodgers and the opposing quarterback — don’t sleep on Mitchell Trubisky, who has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Fantasy owners tend to underuse the strategy of stacking both quarterbacks, and given the strength of both running games, I would center my strategy around both teams’ passing games. This includes stacking both quarterbacks and using both team’s passing-catching backs (Montgomery and Cohen) more than their early-down backs (Williams and Howard).
There’s a clear fall-off in ceiling projection after Davante Adams, and he makes for the best bet in the Capitan/MVP spot after the two passers. Cobb, Trey Burton, and Allen Robinson are dark-horse candidates.
Also note that as of this writing, the public betting data in the Action Network App shows Green Bay getting 62% of spread tickets, but only 34% of total money wagered, indicating sharp money is on the Bears.
Don’t be afraid to take a contrarian angle to this game. One way to do this is to go heavier on Bears and include Mason Crosby, which would give you leverage in the event Green Bay gets bottled up in the red zone.
Let’s get this schmoney!
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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
