With OTAs and minicamps done and training camp not yet underway, it’s peak Puff Piece Season. Regardless of what time of the offseason it is, the majority of fantasy football content tends to focus on players to target rather than players to avoid. But if I had to choose between a list of players to target or players to avoid for best ball drafts, I would choose the latter. If you’re more focused on who to target, it’s easy to fall into the trap of building too many similar teams with too high a concentration on a relatively small pool of players because you end up treating many of your non-targets as players to fade.
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My fade list in Best Ball does not simply consist of players I project to rank lower than their ADP, but rather players I’ve determined won’t be league winners, even if they do beat their ADP. The key is that every player I avoid makes me either (a) go to the next player down in my rankings, or (b) makes me fade that position until the next round. In other words, the more avoid I can nail, the more likely it is that I do draft a league winner, even if that player isn’t a target per se but rather merely a player I think is fairly valued.
For example, last season one of the first players to make it on my avoid list was Jameson Williams, who went at WR50 and finished WR81. The next two WRs by ADP finished WR24 (Jakobi Meyers) and WR36 (Romeo Doubs), and four spots after them were players that finished WR10 (Nico Collins) and WR25 (Adam Thielen). None of those players were my targets, but by simply hitting on the Williams fade, I increased my chances of having exposure to various degrees of league-winning alternatives.
With that being said, here are three players I’m fading in 2024: One RB, one WR, and one TE.
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Best Ball Fantasy Football Fades
RB Javonte Williams, Broncos (ADP: RB31)
Despite missing only one game and leading the Broncos backfield in snaps and touches last season, Williams finished as the RB29 in PPR and the RB30 in half-PPR. He managed just one top-five finish in PPR formats and none in half-PPR while finishing outside the top 24 RBs 62.5% of the time in both formats. Despite running behind an offensive line that ranked fourth in PFF run-blocking grade, he averaged 3.6 yards per carry, 41st of 49 running backs with 100-plus carries. His 4.9 yards per reception ranked 42nd of 43 running backs with at least 30 targets.
Williams is going as the RB31 on both Underdog and DraftKings, meaning drafters are expecting more of the same, but from my vantage point, he has even less upside in 2024.
The best argument for Williams improving upon his 2023 numbers is that by the time the 2024 season rolls around, he will be nearly two years removed from the torn ACL he suffered in October of 2022. And while RBs do tend to suffer a dip in efficiency in Year 1 after an ACL injury before rebounding to pre-injury norms in Year 2, that doesn’t necessarily help Williams as much as some other RBs because even if Williams’ efficiency bounces back, his volume will likely decrease from the 264 touches (16.5 per game) he averaged in 2023, for a few reasons.
- Declining role in a three-way committee: Not only will his volume continue to be naturally capped as part of a three-way committee – passing-down/hurry-up back Samaje Perine led the backfield with a 42.3% share of pass snaps with Williams active, relegating Williams to a 37.8% share, while change-of-pace Jaleel McLaughlin averaged 5.9 touches per game with Williams active – but there’s evidence that the coaching staff wants to reduce Williams’ role within that committee. Excluding the Week 4 game in which he got injured, Williams went from averaging 15.2 carries and a 32.4% route rate over his first 11 games to 11.8 carries and a 27.7% route rate over his final four games. It’s hard to read a report out of Broncos camp that doesn’t suggest McLaughlin’s role will increase.
- The selection of Notre Dame RB Audric Estime in Round 5. Despite limited draft capital and larger holes elsewhere, the team somewhat surprisingly used a fifth-rounder on Estime, whose skill set most closely resembles that of Williams. Even if Estime falls behind the eight-ball due to a late May knee scope, his selection reaffirms the coaching staff’s intent to use a large rotation of backs and makes Williams’ role less secure as the season wears on.
- Williams is unlikely to play as many games. The average RB misses 2-4 games per season due to injury, meaning Williams is more likely than not to appear in fewer games this season than the 16 he appeared in last season.
- Worse projected game scripts. The Broncos were 8-8 in games Williams appeared in last season but have a projected win total of 5.5 this year, one of the lowest in the NFL. Negative game scripts generally equate to less volume for RBs and would especially hurt Williams, who saw 66.3% of his touches while leading or tied compared to 53.3% for McLaughlin and 48.6% for Perine. Worse game scripts also mean less touchdown upside. Williams scored only 5 TDs last season and has never been a great touchdown-maker. For his career, he has converted only seven of his 42 career carries inside the 10 into touchdowns for a rate of 16.7% – barely half the league average of 30.5% over that span.
The other issue with Williams is that even if his efficiency rebounds to pre-injury levels, it likely won’t be enough to offset a decrease in volume, as his pre-injury YPC of 4.4 is league-average for a RB, and his pre-injury YPR of 6.6 is below league-average. And that’s a bigger if than with most backs, considering that expecting Williams to improve as more time passes since his ACL injury flies directly in the face of how his performance trended last season: In his first six games, Williams averaged 4.3 YPC and posted 4.0+ YPC 50% of the time, but In his final 10 games, he averaged 3.3 YPC and failed to crack 4.0 YPC even once. The concern with Williams compared to other RBs attempting to bounce back from an ACL injury is that Williams had below-average speed to begin with (his forty time is clocked at 4.55-4.62 depending on where you look), putting him at higher risk of failing to return to form.
Williams has a higher floor than ceiling and thus makes a lot more sense in re-draft leagues. Even in a worst-case scenario where he’s the 1b instead of the 1a, his touch counts should still be predictable and bottom out at 8-10 per week. And in a doomsday scenario in which he’s passed up by McLaughlin and Estime, he’d likely be inactive or relegated to the old Perine role, at which point you can cut bait. But in Best Ball, I’d rather a guy like Devin Singletary, who may have the backfield all to himself with only inexperienced Day 3 picks behind him, or 1B/clear RB2 types who are one injury away from being the feature back, such as Brian Robinson Jr. (RB33), Tyjae Spears (RB34), Chase Brown (RB36), Blake Corum (RB37), Austin Ekeler (RB38), and Zach Charbonnet (RB41). If I’m going for the leader of a potential three-way RBBC, Heck, I’d even rather a cheaper Gus Edwards (RB35) on what expects to be a better, run-heavier offense with a higher probability than Denver of being a two-way committee (if J.K. Dobbins can’t stay healthy or Kimani Vidal doesn’t pan out as a Day 3 pick). And if I’m willing to take an early-down back with efficiency concerns and potentially capped volume, I’d rather Ezekiel Elliott (RB39), who gives me far more TD upside on a better offense at a cheaper price.
WR Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (ADP WR58)
Meyers is a tempting pick for some at WR58 because he is already heavily discounted from his top-30 finish a year ago.
But 2023 was already a tale of two halves for Meyers, with the latter, less productive half, being the more relevant half with regard to projecting Meyers for 2024.
- Weeks 1-8 (Josh McDaniels HC): 8.1 tar, 5.4 rec, 57.7 rec yd, 0.71 rec TD, 23.3% TPRR
- Weeks 9-18 (Antonio Pierce HC): 5.4 tar, 3.7 rec, 44.8 rec yd, 0.22 rec TD, 17.1% TPRR
Pierce taking over coincided with the switch to a more run-heavy offense at his behest. It also coincided with the switch from a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo (who, like Meyers, was a former Patriot, and thus familiar with McDaniels’ offensive system) to rookie Aidan O’Connell running the system of interim OC Bo Hardegree, who made it more of a point to get the ball in the hands of his best player (Davante Adams). This season, the OC and system will again change with the hire of Luke Getsy at OC. Whether Getsy’s starting QB ends up being O’Connell or Gardner Minshew (who is also new to Getsy’s system) in any given week, the quarterback quality will ostensibly remain similar to the back half of last season when Meyers’ numbers dipped. And with Getsy having overseen the two highest reception totals of Adams’ career in 2020-21 while working as Green Bay’s passing-game coordinator, the force-feeding of Adams is likely to continue or increase even more.
On top of all that, the Raiders added one of the best pass-catching prospects of the past decade at TE in Brock Bowers at No. 12 overall. Given the draft capital they spent on Bowers and his talent level and ability to line up as a WR or TE, it’s possible Bowers draws even with or jumps Meyers for the No. 2 target role sooner rather than later.
Meyers is an excellent football player, but if he is going to be reduced to a five-ish target-per-game role on a below-average passing offense, there’s not much of a point in rostering a known veteran quantity like him instead of embracing the unknown with rookie or second-year WRs, which have historically proven to be optimal selections at this part of the draft. Day 1-2 rookie WRs who can be had at or up to two rounds after Meyers’ ADP include Adonai Mitchell (IND), Xavier Legette (CAR), Jermaine Burton (CIN), Ricky Pearsall (SF), Ja’Lynn Polk (NE), and Roman Wilson (PIT). Year 2 leap candidates in Meyers’ range include Dontayvion Wicks (GB), Josh Downs (IND), and Quentin Johnston. But what truly cements the Meyers fade for me is there are multiple veteran WRs projected for similar volume in much better passing offenses who go later than Meyers, such as Brandin Cooks (DAL), Gabe Davis (JAX), and Demarcus Robinson (LAR).
TE Ben Sinnott, Commanders (ADP TE19)
Everyone is looking for the next Sam LaPorta, but among 18 TEs drafted in Round 2 over the past decade, LaPorta is the only one to finish inside the top-10 as a rookie. Only four (LaPorta, Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, and Dallas Goedert), or 22.2%, even sniffed the top 20.
One of the 14 who didn’t was Trey McBride, who finished as the TE39 in half-PPR and the TE40 in PPR for the Cardinals in 2022. Like the 2024 Commanders, that Cardinals offense was coordinated by Kliff Kingbury and entered the season with Zach Ertz atop the TE depth chart Despite Ertz lasting only 10 games before a season-ending injury, McBride came nowhere close to providing usable TE value in Year 1, barely cracking the top-40.
And even if Sinnott opens Week 1 as the starter, he still wouldn’t be in the most favorable of situations. Not only is Jayden Daniels a rookie quarterback, but he scrambles at a high rate. Scrambles typically come in lieu of check-downs, which obviously hurts the TE (and RB) position more than it hurts WRs. Speaking of RBs, the team just signed one of the NFL’s premier pass-catching RBs in Austin Ekeler, which also cuts into the volume of available high-percentage underneath targets.
Even with 34-year-old Ertz having played only 17 games over the past two seasons combined and inking a modest contract with Washington (one year, $3 million, $1.96 million guaranteed), Sinnott is likely a year away from fantasy relevance. Sinnott would be more attractive with The Ghost of Ertz out of the picture, but that would also cause Sinnott’s ADP to spike even further, so it’s hard to imagine a scenario where I’m buying Sinnott. At cost, I’d much prefer Ertz (TE38) or fellow rookies Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE29) or Theo Johnson (TE38).
All data via PFF unless otherwise noted.
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