Raybon: Should You Target or Avoid RBs on New Teams?

One of the most unique aspects of 2024 fantasy football strategy is how to approach the unprecedented amount of running backs who changed teams in the offseason.

Over the past decade, the top 36 RBs in average draft position consisted of an average of just 4.5 running backs per season who changed teams in the offseason. This season, as many as 12-13 RBs on new teams have an ADP of RB36 or higher.

The top 12 alone contains three such RBs (Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs), which is one more than we’ve had over the past eight seasons combined. The top 20 contains a total of four RBs on new teams, which is the same amount we’ve had over the past seven seasons combined.

How do these RBs perform compared to RBs who don’t switch teams, and what does it mean for 2024?

All the great season-long content and projections from ACTION are now Exclusively Available on FantasyLabs — click here to get access now!

Note: All historical ADP data is from FantasyData.com PPR. All historical fantasy performance data is from PFF. All current ADP data is from Underdog Fantasy.

Performance vs. ADP

I compared RBs drafted in the top 36 who changed teams to those who didn’t over the past 10 seasons. The RBs who changed teams had a later ADP (24.8) than those who didn’t (17.6). That means, in theory, RBs who switched teams should perform better versus ADP since it’s easier to outperform ADP at a lower draft slot. However, that has not been the case. Both sets of RBs performed 15 spots worse than their draft slot, and RBs who did not switch teams beat their ADP at a significantly higher rate.

• RBs Who Didn’t Switch Teams: 109-of-315 (35%) beat ADP
• RBs Who Changed Teams: 11-of-45 (24%) beat ADP

While that is a significant difference, some of it is still likely due to RBs who didn’t switch teams being drafted earlier on average, meaning they are expected to be safer, which could explain part of the higher hit rate.

However, if we look at just RBs drafted in the top 12, RBs who didn’t switch teams performed markedly better.

• RBs with top-12 ADP Who Didn’t Switch Teams: 34-of-116 (29%) beat ADP
• RBs with top-12 ADP Who Changed Teams: 1-of-11 (9%) beat ADP

That discrepancy in hit rate is much larger than the overall 11% difference between both sets of RBs in the top 30, meaning at some point in ADP, we’d expect the value gap to be closer. Where is that point? It turns out, it’s not until way down the board. We can go all the way down to RB30, and the trend remains the same.

• RBs with top-30 ADP Who Didn’t Switch Teams: 90-of-270 (33%) beat ADP
• RBs with top-30 ADP Who Changed Teams: 4-of-30 (13%) beat ADP

It’s not until we get outside the top 30 that we see RBs who changed teams produce equal or greater value than those who didn’t.

• RBs with ADP of RB31-36 Who Didn’t Switch Teams: 19-of-45 (42%) beat ADP
• RBs with ADP of RB31-36 Who Changed Teams: 7-of-15 (47%) beat ADP

Overall, what really stands out for RBs who changed teams is an overall lack of upside compared to those who didn’t. It’s notable that among RBs with a top-36 ADP who changed teams over the past decade, just one – Demarco Murray of the 2016 Titans  – finished inside the top-10.

I should point out that one limitation of analysis like this is that the sample sizes for each group are unequal. The group of RBs who changed teams is always smaller, which means the hit rate data could be noisier than that of RBs who remained with the same team. However, the overall takeaways should still be valid for comparison purposes, because it’s still a representative sample, as the amount of RBs who remain with the same team every year is always larger than those who don’t. For instance, even with the large uptick in RBs who changed teams this season, RBs who remained on the same team still outnumber them by approximately a 2-to-1 ratio.

Why Do RBs Who Change Teams Not Perform as Well? 

Why do RBs who changed teams not perform as well?

• Age: The average age for RBs who changed teams is 27.8 compared to 25.0 for RBs who didn’t. We know RBs tend to peak almost immediately upon entering the league in their early-to-mid 20s, and begin a steep decline around age 27, meaning the older a RB is, the worse he is likely to perform. 
• Wear-and-tear: This is related to age but is not exactly the same thing. Teams aren’t going to shell out for RBs in free agency or on the trade block unless they have a proven track record of production, which means the typical RBs who change teams tend to have more career wear-and-tear, which can also be true at younger ages. For instance, Jacobs is still relatively young (26) but had already accrued 1,502 career touches (300.4 per season) by the end of his age-25 campaign.
• Team-based circumstances: This is largely situational, as some RBs will go to better teams, and some won’t. However, changing does bring some risk factors that create more downside than upside regardless of the situation, such as having to learn a new scheme and having to run behind a new offensive line.

What Does it Mean for 2024?

While ADP – especially best-ball ADP – has become a lot sharper over the years in terms of devaluing the RB position as a whole, there are still a lot of RBs on new teams being drafted highly at the position. To combat this, a few things you can do are targeting rookie RBs (always +EV strategy), favor the RB strategies that avoid spending high draft capital on the position, such as Zero RB, and generally having less exposure to the high-risk RBs who have changed teams.

The following RBs who changed teams are who I’d consider high-risk due to a combination of ADP, age, wear-and-tear, and various other circumstances. 

• Saquon Barkley, PHI: RB6 ADP, age 27, 1,489 career touches. Hurts could siphon goal-line carries and tends to scramble instead of checking down
• Derrick Henry, BAL: RB8 ADP, age 30, 2,185 career touches, lack of receiving upside
• Josh Jacobs, GB: RB12 ADP, age 26, 1,502 career touches, rookie MarShawn Lloyd waiting in the wings, and AJ Dillon was re-signed
• Joe Mixon, HOU: RB14 ADP, age-28, 1,854 career touches
• Aaron Jones, MIN: RB19 ADP, age-30, 1,449 career touches, shaky quarterback situation 

For comparison’s sake, here’s how the other RBs who changed teams and are going inside the top 36 (or on the fringes) stack up:

• D’Andre Swift, CHI: RB26 ADP, age 25, 788 career touches, potentially crowded backfield with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson
• Zack Moss, CIN: RB27 ADP, age 27, 559 career touches, could be pushed by Chase Brown
• Tony Pollard, TEN: RB29 ADP, age 27, 938 career touches, steep decline in 2023, could be overtaken by Tyjae Spears
• Devin Singletary: RB32 ADP, age 27 ADP, 1,063 career touches
• Gus Edwards, LAC: RB36 ADP, age 29, lacks receiving upside, crowded backfield with J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal
• Ezekiel Elliott, DAL: RB37 ADP, age 29, 2,421 career touches, likely splitting work with Rico Dowdle
• Austin Ekeler, WAS: RB41 ADP, age 29: 1,430 career touches, steep decline in 2023, likely to cede early-down work and goal-line touches to Brian Robinson Jr.

Of those RBs, the two I’ve been targeting the most are Moss and Singletary. Moss has little wear, and the fact he was able to outperform Jonathan Taylor at times last season makes me less concerned about being overtaken by Brown. Singletary has no competition for snaps and could assume a similar role to Barkley. Swift is also intriguing at his ADP, given the offense he’s in, his age, and his low amount of wear. Elliott also has some intrigue strictly based on his ADP and the offense he’s in, but he’s becoming less attractive as his ADP continues to creep up.

Top 2024 Fantasy Football Promos

• Sleeper Promo Code
• Underdog Promo Code
• Drafters Promo Code