On paper, tonight’s battle between the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be one of the best; however, that’s contingent on the hapless Buccaneers breaking out of their early-season rut. Tom Brady and company have lost two straight and four of their past five to fall to 3-4 on the year. They’ll face a sincere challenge from a desperate Ravens squad averaging 27.0 points per game as the visitors.
As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
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Ravens vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Lamar Jackson Over 208.5 Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson‘s passing yards have plummeted over his recent sample, with the former MVP throwing 174 or fewer in three of his last four starts. That’s dropped his passing yards prop to 208.5 for Thursday Night Football, a benchmark he should easily surpass.
As usual, the Ravens are a run-heavy offense, calling the sixth-fewest passing plays in the NFL. Still, we’ve seen a different game plan from them on the road as they lean into Jackson and the aerial attack. Baltimore is throwing the ball 58.2% of the time as the visitors, a substantial increase from the 46.3% we’ve seen from them at M&T Bank Stadium. Consequently, Jackson has eclipsed 210 passing yards in all three road starts.
After three weeks of facing mediocre quarterbacks, the Bucs’ passing defense is in for a rude awakening. Since Week 5, Tampa Bay has been tasked with containing the likes of P.J. Walker, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Marcus Mariota. When adjusted for opponents, it’s evident that their sterling passing defense metrics are due for inflation.
According to the ScoreAndOdds projections, backing Jackson to go over 208.5 passing yards is the highest-yielding prop in tonight’s contest. With J.K. Dobbins on the injured reserve, the football will be in Jackson’s hands more frequently, and the Ravens will ask him to do more with it.
Mark Andrews Any Time Touchdown Scorer +145
Mark Andrews was held without a reception last week against the Cleveland Browns for the first time since his rookie campaign. The two-time All-Pro played 87.5% of snaps and was targetted twice, failing to haul in a reception. We’re anticipating a massive surge from Andrews against the Bucs, including him finding the endzone.
Andrews has been an integral part of the Ravens’ offense. The former third-round pick leads the team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns, carving out a 30.0% target share while hitting double-digit looks in four of his previous six outings.
Based on Pro Football Focus‘s player grades, Andrews ranks best in short to medium routes, making him an ideal red zone target for Jackson. Andrews has a 93.2 player grade on short routes (0-9 yards) and a 94.5 rating on medium routes (10-19 yards), with three of his five touchdowns coming on those routes.
When the Ravens get into the red zone, Jackson’s eyes immediately defer to his most prominent target. We anticipate a big step forward from Andrews after last week’s disappointing effort. That’s reflected in our algorithm, and we’re playing the edge on Andrews as an anytime touchdown scorer.
Of course, this only applies if Andrews is on the field. He’s currently listed as questionable after failing to log a single practice, so there’s a chance he will miss this contest. That wouldn’t impact your same-game parlay from a win-loss perspective, but it would result in an odds reduction.
Tom Brady Any Time Touchdown Scorer +1600
Very rarely does Tom Brady find paydirt, explaining the steep +1600 betting price as an anytime touchdown scorer against the Ravens. Still, based on the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, one of the advantages worth playing is the GOAT breaking the plane. Adding it to our three-leg parlay results in an earth-shattering +6910 return on the FanDuel Sportsbook SameGame parlay.
The Buccaneers are desperate to score. They put up just 21 points over the past two weeks, falling flat on their face last week against the Panthers. Tampa Bay needs to get into the endzone by any means necessary, including having Brady sneak it in himself.
Moreover, the data over the Bucs’ recent sample indicates that the team is due for increased output. The decrease in scoring lately is contraindicated in their total offense. The Buccaneers are averaging 348.7 yards per game over their last three games, above their mean of 330.6. Reconciling production with output implies that the Bucs are progression candidates.
It’s worth noting that Brady has run with the ball 11 times this year, with carries in six of seven outings. Unless the Bucs run him in a trick play, Brady’s best opportunity to score will come on a quarterback sneak within a yard or two of the goal line. The Ravens have allowed four touchdowns within two yards of the goal line over their past three games, and quarterbacks have scored twice against the Ravens in their past four contests. At +1600, it’s worth a gamble that Brady extends those streaks.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
Our three-leg parlay could yield a significant payday if Jackson throws for at least 209 yards, with Andrews and Brady finding the end zone. The ScoreAndOdds projections that sportsbooks should hang the wager around +2400, while FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a monumental +6910. That’s an advantage worth playing on Thursday Night Football.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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