The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Four teams are implied for 3.2 or more goals tonight. One potential reason? Four of the NHL’s five worst teams (in terms of goals allowed) are playing on Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, there’s no lack of high-end options or favorable matchups to target.
Center
- Connor McDavid vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $9,400
- Steven Stamkos @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $8,700
- Auston Matthews @ Calgary: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,000
- John Tavares vs. Vancouver: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,000
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $8,800
- Patrick Kane @ Nashville: DraftKings – $ 7,500, FanDuel – $8,400
- Johnny Gaudreau vs. Toronto: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $8,100
Defense
- Roman Josi vs. Chicago: DraftKings – $6,500, FanDuel – $6,100
- Victor Hedman @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $6,300, FanDuel – $6,200
- John Klingberg @ Las Vegas: DraftKings – $5,900, FanDuel – $5,600
Stamkos and Kucherov lead the slate with 12 DraftKings Pro Trends. Stacking both is expensive so they’re probably best used together exclusively in guaranteed prize pools. The payoff could be huge: They offer an absurd 0.75 correlation coefficient in our Models, as they lead everyone who’s playing tonight in points per 60 minutes of ice time (pts/60) over the past month. The Lightning own Tuesday’s fifth-highest implied total (3.1 goals), and they go on the road to face a Buffalo team that has allowed the third-most goals this year.
Meanwhile, Oilers have lost four of their past six games and McDavid’s peripheral stats are in an absolute tailspin:
Over the past year, McDavid ranks in the 95th and 86th percentile in shots and shots + blocks, respectively. And while his shots have dipped 75th percentile, McDavid isn’t having any trouble putting up points (with monthly percentiles on the right):
He’s a generational talent who carries as much upside as anyone, but unless McDavid starts shooting more, his floor is lower at the moment than his high salary may indicate. As far as tonight is concerned, Edmonton owns the slate’s highest matchup expectation, facing off against the Coyotes, who have the highest Corsi-Against this year.
The Predators’ 3.4 implied goals trails only the Rangers today, so it could make a ton of sense to pay up for a defenseman like Josi. He ranks in the 97th percentile in shots, power-play shots, and shots + blocks per game over the past month, and Chicago has allowed the sixth-most shots and fourth-most goals against this season.
Values
Shea Theodore (DraftKings – $3,600, FanDuel – $3,500): We talked extensively about the Golden Knights’ defensive conundrum on NHL Inside the Lab before the season started, so we knew Theodore may be forced spend some time in the AHL due to one-way contract restrictions elsewhere. With 11 points in eight games in the minors, Theodore should now be firmly back in the fold and is clearly underpriced relative to his peripheral stats and role on the first power-play unit. Of players priced below $4,000 on both sites, only Jaccob Slavin has averaged more shots + blocks per game over the past month among tonight’s options.
Nick Bjugstad (DraftKings – $3,700, FanDuel – $3,900): With the fourth-lowest implied total on the slate (2.6), Florida will likely be relatively unowned against the Rangers, but Bjugstad could be a clear path to jamming in some studs. Categorized as a winger on DraftKings and a center on FanDuel, Bjugstad ranks in the 96th percentile in shots over the past month, leading all power-play skaters priced under $4,300 on either platform.
Notable Stacks
And despite its popularity, that first New York Ranger power play unit currently represents one of our highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks:
Only the Golden Knights have a higher Goals-For expectation than the Rangers today. They are top-three on the slate in both Goals-For and total fantasy points with a scorching 10-3 record over the past month. Florida, meanwhile, has the fifth-highest Goals-Allowed during that stretch, among teams playing tonight. Shattenkirk ranks in the 95th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month, but the Rangers’ top line could offer upside galore, as they rank in the 90th percentile or higher in goals over that same period,
Adding a goaltender to your stacks can always add tremendous value, so consider Lundqvist, as well. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to get a win. Despite their winning record, the Rangers own the highest Corsi-Against over the past month and Lundqvist should be in a prime spot to accumulate saves.
Count on the Predators being very chalky tonight at home tonight, but there could be a solid pivot play on the other end of that matchup with the Blackhawks’ first power-play unit:
The Blackhawks own the fourth-highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate. Nashville has allowed the most power play opportunities in the league and Chicago has drawn the second-most. With $5,750 per player remaining, you can still go a variety of different directions with this lineup construction.
With the second-highest Goals-For expectation on the slate, the Islanders rate as one of our highest four-man stacks on FanDuel:
The Islanders are just outside the top tier of implied totals, but there can be a huge edge in targeting pricing discrepancies between the two sites. Barzal, Lee, and Leddy have a FanDuel Bargain Rating above 75 percent and have a ton of upside in tournaments, ranking in the 98th percentile or higher in points over the past month.
Tavares is a stud you want access to today, he ranks in the 99th percentile in goals and points, but also has great peripheral stats (96th and 98th percentile in shots and power play shots, respectively). He should further expose the Canucks, who have lost four of their past six games and have allowed the eighth-most power play opportunities this year.
While Tampa Bay understandably rates highly on both sites, it’s way easier to jam in a Lightning stack on FanDuel:
Stamkos and Kucherov are elite ceiling plays nearly every game, but Namestnikov probably deserves much more love than he’s been getting. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in shots + blocks over the past month, along with the 67th percentile in blocks. That may not seem noteworthy, but wingers tend to block far fewer shots than centers and defensemen. At a position that traditionally makes sense to pay down, Vasilevskiy could see reduced ownership in tournaments – even as the fourth-largest moneyline favorite – at $9,200 on FanDuel.
Note: Be sure to check out our Starting Goalies page to confirm Vasilevskiy as the starter.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, would be why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines:
- Edmonton -203 vs. Arizona
- NY Islanders -171 vs. Vancouver
- NY Rangers -171 vs. Florida
- Tampa Bay -160 @ Buffalo
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top four options that have already been confirmed/expected as starters:
- Henrik Lundqvist, NY Rangers vs. Florida (DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $8,700): 33.90 saves
- Pekka Rinne, Nashville vs. Chicago (DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,900): 33.89 saves
- Joonas Korpisalo, Columbus vs. Carolina (DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $7,600): 32.96 saves
- Frederik Andersen, Toronto @ Calgary (DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,300): 32.88 saves
We already touched on Lundqvist as a potential stacking candidate, but he’s also the only goaltender today who is a big favorite and is expected to see a large number of shots. The Rangers have tonight’s highest Corsi-Against but the third-fewest goals against over the past month. King Henrik is cash viable.
With the third-highest save prediction on the slate, Korpisalo is intriguing, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating. The Hurricanes have the highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate against a Blue Jackets team that has allowed the third-highest Corsi-Against over the past month. As the seventh-largest moneyline favorite, Korpisalo is a reasonable peripheral situation to attack, even if he doesn’t accrue a win.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
