The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a three-game main slate that starts at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features multiple expensive skaters on the road. Four of the six teams are tightly clustered between 3.2 and 2.8 implied goals:
Center
- Steven Stamkos @ San Jose: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,600
- Mika Zibanejad vs. Boston: DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $7,400
- Patrice Bergeron @ NY Rangers: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $7,300
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov @ San Jose: DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $8,900
- David Pastrnak @ NY Rangers: DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $7,400
Defense
- Brent Burns vs. Tampa Bay: DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $7,400
- Victor Hedman @ San Jose: DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $6,400
Stamkos and Kucherov have an unreal 0.67 correlation coefficient in our Models, and over the past month, both players lead the slate in points per 60 minutes of ice time (pts/60). But the Lightning have today’s second-lowest implied total (2.7 goals), and they face the Sharks on the road with by far the worst matchup expectation on the slate. San Jose has allowed the second-fewest goals this year and the seventh-fewest power play opportunities. And the Sharks shine in those rare short-handed situations, with a 89.6 penalty-kill percentage, the second-highest mark in the league.
Zibanejad and the Rangers are implied for the second-most goals today — and may be a stronger stacking candidate than Boston — but Bergeron should still be considered at his price tag ($7,000) based on his recent peripheral stats:
While the Bruins are implied for the fewest goals today, they also own the second-highest Corsi-For expectation.
Burns has yet to score a goal this year, but he remains one of the best peripheral options in any slate to build your team around. Over the past two seasons, Burns’ 56 goals (0.34 per game) is 19 more than any defensemen and his 0.92 points per game trails only Erik Karlsson.
Values
Tim Heed (DraftKings – $4,200, FanDuel – $4,200): If you decide not to pay up for Burns, Heed is a good option. For just $4,200, he’ll also be featured on Sharks’ first power play unit. Heed, a forward-turned-defensemen, excels on the power play (97th percentile in power play shots) and Tampa Bay is the eighth-most penalized team in the league. He also has a solid peripheral floor, ranking the 86th percentile in shots + blocks per game over the past month.
Jared Spurgeon (DraftKings – $4,700, FanDuel – $4,700): Even on the road, the Wild own the slate’s top matchup expectation against an Auston Matthews-less Toronto team that’s allowing the third-most goals this year. Spurgeon offers nice salary relief: Over the past month, he ranks in the 97th percentile in shots + blocks per game and the 92nd percentile in points.
One-Timers
Rick Nash (DraftKings – $5,400, FanDuel – $6,200): Nash could provide solid leverage in tournaments where the first power play unit is likely to be far more heavily owned. He ranks in the 97th percentile in shots over the past month. Historically, wingers do not block as many shots as centers and defensemen, but Nash’s 3.93 blocked shots per game over the past month are the eighth-highest of any player in the slate.
Morgan Rielly (DraftKings – $5,100, FanDuel – $4,800): The Maple Leafs lead the slate with 3.2 implied goals, and Rielly is expected to remain on the first power play unit, which is currently sixth overall. His 88 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel is the highest of any defensemen and his 84th percentile shots per game over the past month trails only Burns among players playing at the position tonight.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the New York Rangers:
The Rangers have the second-highest goal expectation tonight and Zibanejad, Kreider, and Buchnevich all rank in the top-20 percentile in shots, top-10 percentile in power play shots, and top-10 percentile in goals over the past month. Kreider, in particular, has been on a tear of late, scoring three goals in his past four games and averaging 4.25 shots on goal.
If looking jam in some higher-priced studs, Toronto ranks as one of our highest rated three-man stacks on FanDuel at a discount:
Marner doesn’t correlate with Kadri at even-strength, but at just $4,700, he’s in tournament consideration for salary relief as cheap exposure to the Toronto PP1. Kadri scored two goals on Monday, and he could easily be the largest ice-time beneficiary with Matthews out. Kadri’s ceiling could get a boost from Toronto having the second-best matchup rating on the slate, but he doesn’t block shots – 18th percentile over the past month – which is definitely sub-optimal for his floor.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, but the slate lacks any large favorites:
- Toronto -125 vs. Minnesota
- NY Rangers -125 vs. Boston
- San Jose -110 vs. Tampa Bay
Andrei Vasilevskiy will start for the Lightning and is in a decent spot from a macro perspective, even with Tampa being a slight underdog. The Lightning have allowed the 10th-most shots and the seventh-fewest goals, whereas San Jose has recorded the 10th-most shots with and 10th-fewest goals this season.
Frederik Andersen is a much better value on FanDuel, and looking for a bargain at a position with a ton of variance is a viable strategy, especially if you can secure a strong peripheral stat floor. Comparably priced goalies as similar home favorites have historically posted a +1.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 55.3 percent Consistency Rating.
Henrik Lundqvist stands out on DraftKings, Boston owns the second-highest Corsi-For expectation tonight, so the opportunity for saves should be there.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
