Rams vs. Cowboys Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Target Goff at Home

The NFL season keeps rolling on Sunday night with a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Dak Prescott at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,200 as opposed to $10,800.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

Studs

There is plenty of offensive firepower on to choose from in this contest. The total on this game sits at 52 points, and it has increased by two points since opening up at 50. The Cowboys are listed as two-point favorites, so they own the slight edge in implied team total (27 points vs. 25 points).

The Cowboys’ offense was elite in all facets of the game in 2019. They ranked third in Football Outsiders’ rushing offense DVOA and fifth in passing offensive DVOA. Their average of 431.5 yards per game was the top mark in the league, and their average of 27.1 points per game ranked sixth.

They return virtually their entire offense from last season, with the one big exception being starting center Travis Frederick. He was one of the best centers in football during his prime, but he decided to retire in the offseason. That said, his production did decline a bit in 2019 – he ranked just 13th among centers at the position according to Pro Football Focus – and his spot will be filled by Joe Looney. Looney wasn’t particularly impressive in limited action last season, so the Cowboys’ elite offensive line could see a slight decline this season.

Still, this is a unit with a ton of talent. It starts with Prescott, who is a legit MVP candidate entering his fifth season as the Cowboys’ starter. He threw for a career-best 4,902 yards and 30 TDs last season, and he added 277 yards and three scores on the ground. Overall, his average of 22.0 DraftKings points per game is the second-highest mark in the league over the past 12 months. Dak has also historically crushed with a comparable implied team total, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.01 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).

However, he should face a tough test against the Rams in this contest. Their defense was solid vs. the pass last season, particularly after acquiring Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars. He’s one of the best cornerbacks in football, so unsurprisingly the Rams finished fourth in DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs. That matchup makes Amari Cooper in particular a risky option at his current price tag across the industry. Cooper boasts an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.1 on DraftKings, and Prescott’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.6 is actually worse.

With that in mind, the best way to target the Cowboys offense might be through Ezekiel Elliott. The Rams were much more vulnerable on the ground then they were through the air last season, ranking just 17th in rush defense DVOA. They also ranked 22nd in pass defense DVOA vs. the RB position, so they are definitely vulnerable against opposing RBs.

The Rams are underdogs here, but Jared Goff stands out as possibly the best play on the slate. He struggled at times last season, specifically after Cooper Kupp went down with an injury. Kupp is Goff’s favorite target, so it’s not surprising that he’s been significantly better from a fantasy perspective with Kupp in the lineup. He’s averaged 19.44 DraftKings points in 40 games with Kupp over the past four seasons, compared to just 13.92 DraftKings points with Kupp out of the lineup. That’s a pretty massive differential.

Kupp is fully healthy and just signed a contract extension, which bodes well for Goff to start the 2020 season.

Additionally, Goff has historically been a much better fantasy QB when playing at home. He’s historically averaged approximately three additional fantasy points when playing at home, which is where this contest will take place.

Finally, the Cowboys were mediocre in terms of pass defense last season – they ranked just 17th in pass defense DVOA – and they lost arguably their best defensive player in Byron Jones. They could definitely take another step backwards in that department in 2020.

Mid-Tier

Sticking with the Rams, their pass catchers could provide a lot of value in this matchup vs. the Cowboys.

It starts with Kupp, who has averaged 18.5 DraftKings points per game over the past year. He has one of the best matchups of the entire week according to PFF vs. slot corner Anthony Brown, who graded out as just the 94th-best cover corner last season.

Guys like Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee have nice matchups as well: The Cowboys ranked 20th in DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs and 23rd in DVOA vs. TEs in 2019.

Things are a little murkier with the Rams’ run game. They drafted Cam Akers in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and he is expected to handle the majority of the rushes as the season progresses. That said, head coach Sean McVay said he expects to employ a three-man committee to begin the season. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown both figure to earn carries, which makes all three players risky options.

CeeDee Lamb stands out as my favorite mid-tier option on the Cowboys’ side. The Rams were excellent against No. 1 and No. 2 WRs last year, but they were much more vulnerable vs. “other” WRs. Lamb is expected to replace Randall Cobb as the Cowboys’ primary slot receiver to start the season, which gives him the best matchup of the group. Lamb will also reportedly operate as the return man for the Cowboys, which gives you the opportunity to stack him with Prescott and/or the Cowboys’ defense.

Values & Punts

This is where the single-game contests are typically win. You obviously have to pick the right studs, but those guys are all going to be owned at an astronomical rate. This is the area where you can find some contrarian plays that differentiate your lineup without sacrificing the top-end stud production.

Let’s look at some of the top value and punt candidates rapid-fire:

• Greg Zuerlein ($4,200 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel): Greg the Leg revenge game? He started his career with the Rams and obviously has the potential to make a few bombs in this contest. That said, I probably wouldn’t want to play him in lineups where I’m targeting the Cowboys’ offensive studs.
• Samuel Sloman ($4,000 on DraftKings, $9,000): Kickers are always in play in the single-game format, and Sloman will operate as the Rams’ kicker in Week 1. That said, they are typically more valuable in lowering scoring contests, so don’t feel like you have to roster either kicker in this contest.
• Cowboys Defense ($3,800 on DraftKings) and Rams Defense ($3,000 on DraftKings): Everything I said about kicker applies doubly for defenses. I don’t think either unit has a ton of value in what is expected to be a high-scoring game, but they’re cheap and should command minimal ownership.
• Darrell Henderson ($3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): If you want to take a shot on the Rams’ backfield, Henderson might be the way to do it. He’s technically listed ahead of Akers on the depth chart for whatever that’s worth, and he could get more touches than expected if he starts the game hot.
• Tony Pollard ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Pollard has the ability to make things happen when he gets opportunities, but he probably won’t get a ton of opportunities in this contest. He saw the majority of his work last year after the Cowboys built leads, so I think there’s a good chance he’s over-owned. That said, he could catch a few balls out of the backfield, and he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary.
• Van Jefferson ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Jefferson is probably my favorite punt play on the slate. He was impressive in camp for the Rams during the offseason and is expected to operate as the No. 3 WR for L.A. on opening night. The Rams had at least three WRs on the field for 77% of snaps last season, so the No. 3 WR in their offense has a lot of value.
• Gerald Everett ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): It is possible the Rams could use a bit more two-TE formations this season after losing Brandin Cooks in the offseason. Higbee broke out after Everett got hurt last season, but Everett was the preferred TE in the passing game during the early part of the year.