When schedule makers set the Week 15 Monday Night Football contest, they probably assumed it would be more meaningful than two former heavyweights just playing out the remainder of their schedule. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be, and we’re left with the Green Bay Packers playing for pride against the underwhelming Los Angeles Rams.
Of course, we’re not complaining, as there are just three Monday Night Football contests left in the regular season. We’re making the most of it with another three-leg parlay from TheScoreAndOdds projections.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Rams vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
A.J. Dillon Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
Aaron Rodgers continues to lead the Packers’ attack, meaning increased emphasis on the passing game. Moreover, Green Bay deploys A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones out of the backfield, leaving neither running back with an exceptional fantasy ceiling.
The Packers will be running into one of the Rams’ few strengths this season, their vaunted rushing defense. The defending Super Bowl Champions rank fourth in the NFL in yards allowed via the run game, limiting opponents to an average of 101.9 yards per game. That will make it hard for Dillon to surpass his 49.5 rushing-yard prop.
Dillon has been used sparingly over the past few weeks, limited to eight or fewer carries in two of the past three. The lone week he saw more than eight carries was when Jones was used intermittently due to an ankle injury. With Jones cleared to play, Dillon is looking at a 50% workshare at best. Dillon has fallen below that threshold in seven of the past nine weeks, leaving him with an uphill battle to surpass his modest projections.
Last week’s contest against the Las Vegas Raiders was the first time since Week 8 that a running back hit double-digit carries against the Rams and averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry. LA will be ready to defend the run, and Dillon’s ceiling will suffer. We’re betting the Packers’ running back stays under his total on Monday night.
Aaron Jones Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Although the Packers’ schemes and Rams’ defense will make it hard for Dillon or Jones to thrive in the running game, Jones has a good chance of seeing increased usage via the pass. The ankle injury that limited him could be a factor in his low receiving yard prop; nevertheless, our projections indicate a high probability he makes it over the 20.5-yard offering.
Based on The ScoreAndOdds algorithm, there’s a 35% edge in expected value that Jones eclipses the mark. That is validated by his recent game scores, which suggest Jones is a primary outlet for Rodgers.
Jones has been targeted 16 times over the last three games, seeing no fewer than four looks a game. The former Pro Bowler has made the most of those passes, grabbing 14 for an 87.5% catch rate while going off for 100 yards across the three outings.
As good as the Rams have been against the run, they’ve been terrible at limiting the passing attack. At 228.6, LA allows the 11th-most passing yards per game. That metric has taken a hit recently, with opponents averaging 268.3 over the previous three games.
Jalen Ramsey and company have been a weakness for the Rams this season. That’s a vulnerability that Rodgers can exploit in Week 15, and Jones will be one of the beneficiaries. We like Jones to go over 20.5 receiving yards.
Van Jefferson Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
The Baker Mayfield experiment got off to a tremendous start last week. The former first-overall selection led the Rams downfield on a game-winning touchdown drive, securing the Rams’ first win since the middle of October. Van Jefferson was an integral part of the attack, and we expect him to duplicate that success against the Packers.
Jefferson hauled in the winning touchdown with 15 seconds to play, a 23-yard pass from Mayfield. The Rams’ new quarterback may have unlocked Jefferson’s full potential, with the wideout setting season-best marks in yards per catch and yards per target in last week’s victory.
The former second-round pick has been at his best in intermediate routes, scoring a 95.1 PFF grade on 10-19 yard plays. Jefferson is also one of the most frequently-used wide receivers, running routes on 67.7% of plays while sitting out just two snaps over the last couple of weeks.
The Packers’ pass defense has faltered lately, allowing three of their past four opponents to throw for at least 254 yards. We saw Mayfield unleash the passing attack in Week 14, and another above-average effort is expected on Monday night. Jefferson will be Mayfield’s safety blanket and should exceed his receiving yard prop.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
As you can see, there’s a substantive advantage in playing this three-leg bet on the SameGame Parlay. Our projections indicate that the wager should carry a +185 price tag, whereas FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging a tantalizing +537. That’s too much value to pass up.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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